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[jatin724] 26/1/2018 14:07

MT was this a hospital in north London - I have had similar problems!

[jtcod] 26/1/2018 10:48

Cyber SecurityThe level of focus this is getting behind closed doors in political circles right now is enormous. Governments have finally woken up to an epidemic on our hands and they are trying to understand it, discuss it and coordinate collective action but really they are terribly badly equipped to address the problem. One of the reasons they are discussing it so openly with other governments is because they don't understand the subject matter and are hoping the will come across someone who does. That is the state of our cyber security today. Completely unprepared.From 2015https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_nSHsb5xKPoThis guy (link below) may not be riveting to listen to but he is a genius imo. Perhaps he or someone like him will even be remembered as our generations Alan Turin.https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cWpRxyqDgpMI think Cyber warfare has shone a light on a great weakness in our electoral, military and business structures. Potentially cyber attacks have the power to disarm and disrupt any military power and/or commercial establishment but the people with the ultimate power to protect us in our society and business are old and in many cases simply are not equipped with the intellect or experience to understand the enormity of the problem or indeed the true depth of the risk. Everything that has gone before in human kind has brought us to a collective recognition that age and experience are the ultimate credentials for top positions of responsibility but because the world is moving so fast, in the world of cyber security they are all like children still learning what is dangerous and hazardous in their immediate environment. The cyber security problem may require some new thinking and an acceptance that perhaps even the heads of our armed forces and intelligence agencies may be better served by young smart geeks who love and understand the true power of data in a digital world......because big decisions need to be made and they will only be made if the person who really understands the problem has the authority to make those big decisions. Can you imagine a General steeped in military history for instance redirecting 30% of his military budget to a new cyber security department? Never going to happen.Food for thought.....

[jtcod] 25/1/2018 14:23

For those interested in the mortgage sector the Bank of England/FCA provide a fair amount of data these days. Here is some data on UK mortgage lendinghttps://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/mlar-statistics-december-2017-summary-long-run.xlsxA comforting stat from New Loans on page 2 is that the £ Percentage of Loans with impaired credit history as a whole is currently still less than 10% of the levels that preceded the financial crises in 2007. On page 3 it shows that arrears and provisions are running at Circa 60% of 2007. However, that is unsurprising given that interest rates are so low. In 2007 they averaged Circa 6% now they average Circa 2.3%. Question is how fast does that dynamic change if rates were to rise?

[freddie ferret] 24/1/2018 17:35

Thread seems to be sticking to safe topics.

[mount teide] 24/1/2018 15:52

PFI Contracts - did some research on this a few years ago - found a single figure number of PFI projects under Tories/Major and close to 700 under New Labour/Brown.


Predictably, all the worst examples date from the Blair/Brown years. PFI has been criticised a lot over the years from both sides, as it was always obvious that it would cost more since private borrowing costs more than public.

However, if it is a choice between doing something and not doing it, a greater long-term financial cost can be acceptable in order to gain a social good quicker. It is a judgement call about how great the social benefit is seen to be and how much extra the long-term costs are, and the first ones in the Major years did seem to be reasonable - the country was coming out of recession, and it was seen as producing jobs as well as hospitals, and the maintenance agreements were broadly similar to those in the private sector.


Enter Brown and New Labour. His motivation was not to create jobs to aid recovery, but to buy votes with massive public spending while keeping as much borrowing as possible off the public accounts. These PFIs were not only set up when the economy was doing well, civil servants with little experience of negotiating major contracts with the private sector were specifically ordered to get as many PFI contracts signed as possible. This is the period when contracts went through with ridiculous terms, such as costing hundreds of pounds to replace a light bulb, which are crippling the NHS today.

When the Coalition got in, PFIs were one of the first things they looked at, and they did consider making their future use illegal because of the appalling problems, many of which had already made news headlines. In the end they did not, but dramatically tightened up the conditions under which they could be used and the costs which could be charged by the companies. From 2010 these new ones were called PF2s, and they have not proved popular with the private sector, only a few have ever been signed.

So yes - it is always going to be more expensive in the long term to get a private company to finance a public project in return for long-term maintenance than for the government to pay for it directly; how far that can be justified is a matter for debate in individual cases. But there was never any justification for taking on massive future debt on terms no private sector company would ever impose on another in order to buy votes - the villain of the piece is definitely Brown and New Labour. Which is something they and Jeremy Corbyn should bear in mind when he stands at the despatch box complaining about the lack of funding for the NHS - the PFIs Brown landed the NHS with are today costing more than all the tens of £billions of extra funding the NHS has had since 2010.

[mount teide] 24/1/2018 15:25

"Britain must leave the EU to restore democracy" - Tony Benn at 82 hitting the nail squarely on the head.

[jtcod] 24/1/2018 10:59

On the earlier subject of Jim Rogers investment strategy a few years ago he bought Russian treasuries which I believe were paying at the time Circa 14%. That yield rate is already down to 7.75% so he would have made big value profits plus significant yield return of 40%.https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/interest-rateThe five year chart shows Russian interest rates peaked at more than 16%.As the table below shows Russia has very good Debt/GDP figures compared to the rest of the worlds leading nations. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/government-debt-to-gdpJim Rogers has no problem going in the opposite direction to the crowd it seems.Personally I am new to this investment style so I have been monitoring my own phantom calls for the last 3 years. My feeling at the time was Russia was too risky for my tastes and my alternative call was Brazilian Real which was affected by a government scandal at the time but which has appreciated along similar lines to Rogers Russia play and also yielded Circa 40% too.https://tradingeconomics.com/brazil/interest-rate5 year chart shows peak at 14%.That was beginners luck on my part I am sure. As I say I am still learning but it's an interesting take on how Rogers thinks.

[jtcod] 24/1/2018 08:32

I have not liked the dollar for more than a decade now sithuk so maybe I am biased. I wonder though could you find greater predictability and therefore less risk elsewhere? How safe are dollar treasuries with rates having been depressed artificially with QE? US debt to GDP is beyond even that of the UK.

[jtcod] 24/1/2018 08:19

Interesting Davos piece:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42798801Is the world economy looking too good to be true? Barclays comment: Hold onto your hats!

[sithuk] 23/1/2018 23:17

What do you guys think of buying usd treasuries ETF (IBTL) to protect against a drop in GBP relative to USD, and also hedge against a general market sell off?

[invisage] 23/1/2018 21:02

JT Thanks for your thoughts on Jim indeed I do listen to him very interesting common sense from Rogers

[captainfatcat] 23/1/2018 20:13

Yep the 18 inchers sure can give a physical punch! But must admit they are over kill for my room and will probably get swapped out for some higher quality 12" drivers at a later date.

[jtcod] 23/1/2018 19:27

18 inch!!! That's big. I used to use a Marshall 4x 12 inch for my lead guitar but 18 inch is for serious bass CFC.Interesting you have made money trading tubes. I hadn't realised that was possible. I think it may be possible doing that with CD's now if Amazon is anything to go by. I saw a Doug Sax mastered version of a CD selling for £1000 a month ago. Fortunately I own two copies because I always worried about it being superseded by another remaster and Doug Sax has now passed on. Having said that I don't know if they achieved their price.

[captainfatcat] 23/1/2018 18:48

Buying and selling valves/tubes has pretty much funded my hifi adventures. It's amazing how much some of the popular new old stock valves used for audio have appreciated over the last ten years. Starting to see a lot more fakes about now (rebranded Chinese and Russian tubes). Even have a old school Hickok Tube Tester

Currently using a heavily modified 2W flee power sets amp driving 12" Bastanis Mandala open baffle speakers augmented with solid state driven 18" bass drivers.

[jtcod] 23/1/2018 10:15

Thanks for your impressions serratia. I think I will check them out at a show first. I used to use tubes myself for a while. I felt they were very musical in general and their imaging was more palpable than solid state though I think that is no longer the case. For me - dynamics and transient speed are most important as pecks of the performance, because there lies the essence of drama and emotion. That's why I chose a coaxial ribbon tweeter and mid design but no speaker is perfect!....and so the quest continues....

[serratia] 22/1/2018 21:27

JTC,

Speaker sound is a subjective topic. Earlier in my journey I used to visit two different style hi-fi shops. One majored on detail the other was more influenced by tone. At the former it was big solid state amps driving at one end Focals at the other end Wilsons. It didn't work for me but I knew what he was looking for. Reviewers might call them tiring. The other had a mixture of amps and speakers which appealed to him.
I was at that time using Naim amps in a Linn vinyl system and was looking to upgrade the Linn speakers. I narrowed it down to two types Zu and Shahinian the latter is omnidirectional. I liked both but felt the Zu shaded it.
I found myself drifting towards valve amps not for the middle of the road female singers which are so often used in valve amp demo's my preference is for blues music. Next I visited a valve amp maker and he said bring your Zu's along. He said the Zu's are the fastest speakers he'd heard so maybe that's what I'm looking for.
An additional advantage of Zu's is their efficiency so they will work with any powered amps. That's why I'd like to explore Tron's as they produce amps with different tube types/styles.
So, it's not easy to say speaker A is better than speaker B it depends what style floats your boat. For me omnidirectional speakers were preferable to similar 'speed' speakers. I've heard lower priced ones which were average, Shahinians which I liked.
On to MBL - I heard them earlier in my journey and was very impressed, probably in the top few at the show. They should have been considering the price point was way above the speakers I had at the time so would definitely put them on my compare list for future listening. This model is still out of my pay grade though -



Conclusion - I seem to be attracted by the speed and valve sound. If I was into other speakers than Zu I'd definitely listen to omnidirectional speakers and MBL would be high on my check out list.

[jtcod] 22/1/2018 19:27

Speakers are a very emotive (and costly) product for me. Have you had a chance to listen to MBL speakers at all serratia? I haven't yet but I am intrigued because it's a 360 degree dispersion which should in theory avoid the frequency dips which occur from off access firing on all traditional front firing speakers. The resultant sound radiance is more akin to real instruments and has been described as a very live sound. If you have heard them I would be interested in your impressions.

[serratia] 22/1/2018 18:49

JTC,

I'll watch out for it. If I was looking at upgrading I'd quite like to hear the various Tron amps but it would be a long drive to his place. I wouldn't mind hearing the latest Zu speakers to see whether they a big upgrade from my Druids.

[jtcod] 22/1/2018 16:52

I haven't read the book CFC but I do think his style leans heavily to his perception of high probability events. Long term thinking features high in that probability assessment. Like Buffett he has no time for Wall Street and sees through Wall Street BS and isn't afraid to call it out. I like him.

[captainfatcat] 22/1/2018 16:37

Around 16-17 years ago I read Jim Rodgers book "Investment Biker" about his travels as he motorcycles around the world its full of observations that have proved very insightful.

[11_percent] 22/1/2018 13:01

Still going strong.