Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 01/2/2018 09:52

To add to the pressure the US Treasury debt ceiling needs to be raised by early April at latest or the Treasury is forecast to run out of money. Remember the previous stand-offs on this issue?http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2017/11/30/u-s-treasury-would-run-out-cash-by-early-april-if-debt-ceiling-not-lifted-cbo.html

[jtcod] 01/2/2018 09:43

This is a fascinating document issued a couple of months ago by Wells Fargo Securities entitled Who Will Buy All the New Treasury Securities?https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/assets/pdf/commercial/insights/economics/special-reports/treasury-purchases-20171127.pdfSome items which stand out to me are:Fig 1: forecast new issue requirement for 2018 and 2019 are double that of 2017Fig 2: Net foreign purchases drying up after 2014. 2016 was negativeFig 3: Only foreign private investors were positive in 2017. Foreign official was negativeFig 4: China reduced dollar reserves by $1 Trillion in just 3 yearsConclusion: Higher Treasury Yields Ahead"Issuance of new securities by the U.S. Treasury Department has trended lower over the past six years as the federal budget deficit has narrowed. However, issuance is set to jump in the next two years as the deficit starts to widen again, and finding willing buyers for all the new securities may prove to be a bit more problematic than it has been over the past few years.For starters, the Federal Reserve is effectively turning into a net seller of Treasury securities as it takes steps to shrink the size of its balance sheet. Foreign central banks, especially those in Asia, were quick to snap up Treasury securities when their currencies were experiencing upward pressure vis-a?-vis the U.S. dollar and their FX reserves were swelling. We forecast that most foreign currencies will appreciate modestly against the greenback in coming quarters, which probably will lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasury securities from the foreign official sector, but a return to the rapid rates of reserve accumulation among those central banks that characterized the last decade does not seem likely.That likely will leave the private sector, both domestic and foreign, as the principal buyer of U.S. Treasury debt. Demand for safe-haven assets spiked during the financial crisis, leading to a notable increase in demand for Treasury securities from foreign investors. Similarly, new regulations caused domestic banks to ramp up their purchases of Treasury debt, but those buying needs look to have been largely fulfilled. Short of another financial crisis, a surge in private sector demand for Treasury securities stemming from risk management considerations does not seem likely. So if demand for Treasury debt does not keep up with issuance, prices of Treasury securities will decline. Said another way, yields on Treasury debt must increase to clear the market. This conclusion is consistent with our forecast, which looks for yields on U.S. Treasury securities to rise over the next two years."

[mattjos] 31/1/2018 19:51

Seeing an ever increasing number of historically Asset Finance lenders now offering finance to companies if they need cash to help pay their VAT and/or corporation tax!! They are obviously trying to cast their nets wider and bring in new, likely higher margin, business but ... Surely by definition that is lending to high risk entities? Aldermore the underlying lender in several instances.I am lead to believe the significant drop-off in new car PCP business this last 6-9 months is one of the motivations for diversification.

[mount teide] 31/1/2018 13:12

Although Woodford has had an awful recent run I would't bet against him bouncing back JT - as in football, form is temporary but class is permanent.

[jtcod] 31/1/2018 12:33

Quite a few of my friends worked for Capita going back to the very early days but all bar one have left or retired now MT. Capita was in the right place at the right time but their outsourcing market matured and as you say the problems have come home to roost.Regarding Woodford, he really has had a bad run of things. I just wonder if previously being part of a large financial organisation afforded him a level of benefit from Chinese walls which he no longer has. Having said that, his record was outstanding so I am sure he will bounce back.

[mount teide] 31/1/2018 12:18

Capita's weak balance sheet has finally come home to roost - the 8.23% short position was the canary in the coal-mine - many will probably exit in the placing - job done.

Neil Woodford seems to have lost his stock picking touch - this was yet another where he continued to average down from the highs and now holds a huge position, massively underwater.

Will be a long road back to 1200p for Capita from here - Carillion folding has seriously knocked the confidence of the sector, as has the threat of a Corbyn led Labour Government intent on implementing a huge Nationalisation programme straight out the Fidal Castro School of 'Government'.

[jtcod] 31/1/2018 11:42

I wonder if Capita may represent the early stages of a procession of companies with weak balance sheets being taken to task by Government in the wake of the Carillion collapse. Reliable dividends in any sector may be at a premium by the time this plays itself out.

[the stigologist] 31/1/2018 10:42

So the basics on this are that they developed this Elast-eon technology about 17 years ago. Failed to become a device manufacturer themselves. Licensed the materials tech unsuccessfully initially and on bad terms to much bigger players. Got into loads of litigation to try to protect their Intellectual Property etc. Finally seem to have drawn a line under previous litigation and found a licensing partner Biomerics who is delivering. Reckon that having learnt from previous experiences they can licence their tech successfully for some other devices e.g. Breast implants and Heart Valves. Their current valuation is totally out of sync with what even Private Start-ups are valued at (e.g. Edwards buying Harpoon a couple of weeks ago for $100-250m) which don't have the track record of successful in-human clinical use or FDA approvals.

AOR AorTech
Share Price : 50p
Market Cap : £2.8m

AorTech has developed biostable, implantable polymers, including Elast-Eon™ and ECSil™ the world's leading long-term implantable co-polymers, now manufactured on their behalf by Biomerics LLC in Utah, USA. With several million implants and seven years of successful clinical use, AorTech polymers are being developed and used in cardiology and urological applications, including pacing leads, cardiac cannulae, stents and neuro stimulation devices. Devices manufactured from AorTech polymers have numerous US FDA PMA approvals, 510k's, CE Marks, Australian TGA and Japanese Ministry of Health approvals.

Elast-Eon™ and ECSil™'s biostability is comparable to silicone while exhibiting excellent mechanical, blood contacting and flex-fatigue properties. These polymers can be processed using conventional thermoplastic extrusion and moulding techniques. A range of materials in a variety of application-specific formulations for use in medical devices and components are available.

Valuation comparitors :-

Major licensee is Biomerics. Private Company. Recently spent $38m on a HQ building alone.


Edwards Lifesciences bought Harpoon Medical for $100-250m (December 6th 2017)
"The HARPOON system is designed to facilitate echo-guided repair of mitral valve regurgitation, by stabilizing the prolapsed mitral valve leaflet to restore proper coaptation and valve function"

Xeltis achieved largest private equity funding round for a medical device in Europe of $52m in 2017 (November 15th 2017)




AorTech comments :-

General licenses :- "Significant funding has been achieved by AorTech licencees in developing and commercialising their products with AorTech's Elast-Eon™ seen as critical to their success. In one instance, funds in excess of $100 million have been raised to achieve successful commercialisation."

On their Heart Valve Project :-

"We have previously announced a potential transaction with a new business established to commercialise the AorTech heart valve technology. Fund raising for the new project is continuing but is not yet finalised and any license will be dependent upon the new business being fully funded. The package of data and information that AorTech is able to deliver to the project is substantial. This ranges from specific manufacturing know how and trade secrets for the precise polymer best suited to a heart valve, detailed design files for a polymer valve with a stress/strain profile substantially less than the material mechanical properties, together with a fully documented manufacturing process that allows a clinical quality valve to be made on a repeatable basis. All of these processes have been developed over a number of years of trial and error and experimentation at considerable investment by AorTech."

[chestnuts] 31/1/2018 09:28

Jtc

Trouble is my Aunts would probably enjoy the movie

[jtcod] 31/1/2018 09:16

Made me laugh

[chestnuts] 30/1/2018 15:57

MT

The buy to let mortgage is not a new thing its just every one as put the heads in the sands, the banks think if they keep feeding the market it will go up ie keep lending, well i think the fat lady as stopped singing.

[mount teide] 30/1/2018 13:50

Dear oh dear - banks at it again - near 20% of the current mortgage market has been allowed to speculate on the property market with interest only mortgages!

With property prices now falling across many parts of London, interest rates rising from 360 year money printing lows it looks like the writing is on the wall for many heavily indebted property market speculators, particularly those who were late to join the party - late 1980's all over again!


Borrowers ignoring mortgage timebomb, says FCA



Hundreds of thousands of homeowners could be at risk of losing their homes by ignoring how they will pay off their mortgage, a regulator has warned.

Nearly one in five mortgage-holders has an interest-only home loan, meaning they would need savings or other funds to pay a final lump sum.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said the end of these mortgage terms would peak in the next 10 to 14 years.

Many borrowers were ignoring letters from lenders, it found.....


....The FCA said that 1.67 million full interest-only and part-capital repayment mortgages were still outstanding, representing 17.6% of all mortgages in the UK.


The FCA had more concerns over the reaction of borrowers who, for a variety of reasons, were ignoring letters from their lender.

Some believed that they had an adequate repayment plan in place, while others were simply burying their head in the sand. Some had little trust in their lender, so were suspicious of the letters.

The FCA urged these borrowers to talk to their lender as early as possible, otherwise they would restrict their options over time of paying off their mortgage.

"We are very concerned that a significant number of interest-only customers may not be able to repay the capital at the end of the mortgage and be at risk of losing their homes," said Jonathan Davidson, executive director of supervision at the FCA.

[hottingup] 30/1/2018 10:58

Small cap Modern Water (MWG) has finally secured the big £22m Gibraltar waste water treatment contract, assuring the company's financial security for the next 20 years:



Currently 16p, could be back above 100p.

[jtcod] 28/1/2018 14:54

It really has become a serious problem I agree MT. In the last 4 years Cyber Crime has quadrupled and is forecast to hit $2 trillion over the next 12 months. Governments only started taking this seriously last year imo and some are now seeking cross border accords in order to work together. I suspect this crime is going to touch us all personally before any meaningful headway is achieved at government level.

[mount teide] 28/1/2018 12:46

Jt - Cyber Attacks - Mearsk were far from alone last year, a number of other global shipping companies, shipping agents and Clarksons Shipbrokers also suffered similar attacks.

As with Maersk, it was mostly criminals breaking into computer systems used to track shipping and cargo data in order to manipulate cargo manifests to facilitate the smuggling of goods.

A practice which also raised ship safety issues as altering cargo manifest data(weight and nature of cargo) could compromise the stability and safety of container vessels, particularly smaller vessels, as it is likely to affect the order container cargo is loaded and the stowage location on the vessel, which is arranged pre-arrival of the vessel to ensure even weight distribution and segregation of dangerous goods.

Grimaldi's $50m ConRo new building was subsequently declared a constructive total loss as a result of capsizing alongside in Antwerp Docks during loading of container cargo, much of it with hugely understated/inaccurate weight data on the upper deck.

[jtcod] 27/1/2018 23:42

I think this story typifies the risks and costs involved with Cyber Attacks.In late June last year Maersk, the world's biggest shipping company with control of 20% of global shipping, was hit and it closed down their entire system. They were faced with having to completely build a new alternative system on 4000 new servers and 45,000 New PC's. They achieved this heroic feat in just 10 days. The damage estimate is between $250m and $300m.https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/maersk-reinstalled-45-000-pcs-and-4-000-servers-to-recover-from-notpetya-attack/

[chestnuts] 27/1/2018 00:57

I think we are all guilty of calling our NHS, personaly i can only praise it, last i had been suffering from Flu and last Friday i had developed a severe chest infection where i had begun to have breathing problems, i phoned my Doctor at 1,30 I was given a doctors appointment for 4,30 but had to wait till 6pm as the doctors had been called out to an emergency, i saw the doctor who gave me a prescription for some anti biotics, and after a couple of days it improved immensley,

Now i believe that is pretty good service, not perfect but life isnt perfect

[jtcod] 26/1/2018 19:32

15" is a bass guitarists best friend CFC. Ooh er Mrs!

[captainfatcat] 26/1/2018 17:25

JTC just realised I had a senior moment my bass drivers are 15" not 18"

We have a very good XRay department here on the Isle of Wight in and out quickly but the wait for a blood tests is normally 1-2 hours you notice the regulars as they come prepared with a book to read. Our local hospital is currently in special measures and service can be either very dire or excellent luckily we have only experienced the later but know plenty of folk who have not been so lucky.

I have spent a reasonable amount of time there over the last few years helping with friends & family members. While the nurses and doctors are under a lot of pressure it is obvious that the admin staff that are seen, such as staffing the different receptions are essentially having a paid holiday. The time and motion man of my day would have a field day.

[mount teide] 26/1/2018 14:48

'cheaper for the NHS to pay the private hospital than do it itself.'

What an indictment of the management JT - where's the professional pride? Particularly considering the huge salary and final salary pension packages many senior NHS managers now 'earn'?

[puzzler2] 26/1/2018 14:32

The solution here would be to reduce all NHS expenditure by say 10%, alongside empowering competent managers to think outside the box to find better, more collaborative ways of doing things, to improve productivity and efficiency generally and to cut waste. Only when optimum service performance was achieved for say 10% less, or indeed 20% less, would new money be injected into the system to increase capacity, safe in the knowledge that this increased spending would be properly directed.

Can't be done? This is exactly what we did to improve manufacturing efficiency at our factory, before committing many £M for an additional production line. More to the point, it's what all private sector businesses had no choice other to do during the 2008 financial crisis.

[jtcod] 26/1/2018 14:13

Hardly surprising MT that the NHS farm out medical procedures and tests to private hospitals because it is cheaper for the NHS to pay the private hospital than do it itself.