Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[blusteradjuster] 07/1/2018 07:14

Kaos,

That zeohedge article doesn’t talk about cost-curves.

The price of renewables continues to fall rapidly - that was the whole point.

Call it an nvestment in the future.

[jtcod] 07/1/2018 07:05

Good luck with that chestnuts

[kaos3] 07/1/2018 03:08

green electricity facts :

[chestnuts] 06/1/2018 16:21

JTC

Take a look at TPL thread seemingly they are getting some where unraveling the mess robson left

[freddie ferret] 06/1/2018 16:12

Interesting Page 4 of todays Times. "Productivity rises at fastest rate in six years but anxiety remains"
Quarter page.

[jtcod] 06/1/2018 11:30

Thanks for the feedback on falling productivity figures guys. Sorry for the delayed response. Family matters have had to take a front seat over the last couple of days.Chairman20I am with you on the Employment/Unemployment lie. It makes me very cynical regarding any government figures. I must admit I like to look at 50 and 100 year charts when looking at economic indicators but unemployment during say 30's and 40's for instance is made a lot less meaningful when comparing to today. From 1939-45 unemployment fell from circa 12% to 1% and that was a real 1%. What is it truly today?FreddieI liked your list (though I was also baffled by fruit and veg at first). Along the same lines I guess I would add cyber security.

[chestnuts] 05/1/2018 18:58

Chairman

Many thanks for taking your time to reply

[chairman20] 05/1/2018 17:08

chestnuts

Are the banks strong enough to with stand a spike in inflation?

My answer is yes because policy rates seem to be set these days
ignoring inflation for a significant delay period. Everyone
is obsessed with banks as retail entities. New banks may be
substantially retail but the mega big banks are much much more
than the bricks and mortar shops.

A scenario where a spike in inflation leads to a significant spike
in interest rates leading to a significant spike in defaulting
borrowers is possible boosting bad debts and write downs of bank assets
(their loan books) will produce some reporting period losses and
possibly panic in the less informed public and politicians. But the
key banks can survive that sort of thing as these days the rate of
rolling over and resetting of borrowing rates is about 8 months on average.
The customers (eg buy to let investors)will face a bloodbath and the
economy and public finances will be smashed for a cyclical crash but
out of it all the banks will be the ones to survive longest.

Will it happen? In my view not a chance in hell.

[serratia] 04/1/2018 22:36

GDP,

Like many government figures they are open to interpretation ! A year or so ago they added two new areas to GDP. Prostitution and illegal drug sales. Now how do you put a figure on those? (What figure would you like minister ?)
Still, Hungary tops that. They say only foreigners use prostitutes so the figure they come up with is added to their export figures.

[maxk] 04/1/2018 20:04

Even McDog's burger flippers aint safe.

[chestnuts] 04/1/2018 19:41

Chairman

Hope you could answer a question

Are the Banks strong enough for a major increase in Inflation.

[chairman20] 04/1/2018 18:29

JTC

a lifetime of close and deep working relations
with economists has made me look for alternative
explanations of relationships like productivity -
unemployment - wages.

Of these only wages are pretty incontrovertible
real numbers - and even there there is a difference
between gross wages (costs of employment incl taxes
and money in the pocket wages.

Productivity to an economist is a macro number
only tenuously linked to what real people think
is productivity (actual outputs like numbers of
bricks laid) The implicit fudge factors the economists
like to keep murky so they let politicians (even
clever ones) hold onto the simplistic pictures.

And don't get me started on employment-unemployment
which are rubber quantities defined by the social
security system and completely mismeasure the
numbers available for work or who might be persuaded
to join the workers in different cicumstances.

The conclusion I am led towards is that the decline
in productivity is a consequence of the fall in the
value of work and its distorted application to some
groups of people (women, students, early retirees, etc)

The Robot jobs scare is significant in that it further
devalues working whether or not it takes off slowly or
with a bang. A shift to robot workers will in the short
term boost the economists version of productivity not
because it increase the value of the ratio of output
produced to labour cost but because the big investment
required to introduce will significantly raise the
quanta of capital invested to produce a unit of output.

[zho] 04/1/2018 17:52

Aha. I'm surprised I couldn't see that given my generous portion of broccoli at lunchtime.

[freddie ferret] 04/1/2018 17:44

Brainpower.

[zho] 04/1/2018 17:43

Lack of fruit and vegetables? Scratching my head over that one.

[chestnuts] 04/1/2018 15:33

JTC

Robot employment i think its alot further away than you think

[mr roper] 04/1/2018 15:33

Surely an opportunity to reduce the population, JT, and in turn alleviate the strain in services...

[jtcod] 04/1/2018 06:34

Robot Warning Over Living Wagehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42559226I don't know why this hasn't got a lot more headlines before today. Regardless of living wage, under the current employment and taxation structure in this country a move to Robot Workforce is almost guaranteed to be swift and tax revenues guaranteed to drop off a cliff unless the treasury completely reinvents the structure of our taxation. There is currently no incentive to employ people. Apart from wages, companies have to contribute Circa 12% NI for the privilege of employing someone.Our employment laws and revenue structure is so unprepared for the change its alarming to be frank and if we are to avoid substantial mismanagement of capital expenditure by UK business then companies need to know the playing field ahead of time.

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 19:02

I still have some equity investments

[chestnuts] 03/1/2018 18:59

JTC

Many thanks for your reply, i am just pointing out trading opotunities that come my way.

[chestnuts] 03/1/2018 18:52

Jtc

I only have around 10% of my wealth in Gold /Silver but i use these as an alarm bell.

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 18:43

I stick strictly to my own sieves these days chestnuts. There is enough to keep me busy. FTC is too small to show up btw. Right now I am solely researching those ideas that I would buy into, given a significant correction. I am adding to a list of those things that meet my criteria should the right price point arrive. This includes equities, currency and also commodities that I believe can handle a significant crises very well judging by historic record. You might be surprised. There is a world outside precious metals that can also do very well in a crisis. Cash and Patience are currently high on my priority list. Let's hope that holds!Good luck with FTC though.

[zho] 03/1/2018 18:22

It should be easy to assess the comparative productivity of English and French brickies, or typists, but what about investment bankers? If the answer is a function of the fees or profit they generate, then wouldn't we expect productivity to be affected by on exchange rates?

[chestnuts] 03/1/2018 18:10

Jtc


FTC

I posted the other day about FTC did you look at it , now i dont know much about it other than production was 3 x previouse yr and they now have nearly £3m in the bank opposed to a £300k debt, but what i did like was the pattern and the fact last friday was a major cycle day and that the 3rd wave had retraced 61.8% so i bought very close to the bottom and today they jumped 1.75p , first target 38p ish middle of June but could go as high as 83p.

Thats if the company as turned the corner .