Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[invisage] 10/3/2018 16:41

So how are you positioned in all this JT? 100% Cash?

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 16:18

When you say “they” I assume you mean governments chestnuts and yes they will try I am sure. Ordinary people and companies unfortunately rarely have the benefit of time if they get in too deep.

On a different note just looked at Berkshire Hathaway cash holdings of $109bn which now represents more than 20% of market cap. PE Ratio (TTM) 11.7

I don’t own them but I don’t think I have ever seen Buffett hold so much cash as a proportion of market cap.

[chestnuts] 10/3/2018 16:01

JTC


I agree completly with your post above, but i do feel for the young couples who have bought at the top of the market, but i do think you are also missing something and that they will inflate the debt away and its already started, or they will try

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 15:55

To go further I see the world right now as having driven itself to the very limits of debt serviceability as a result of 10 years of (almost) zero interest rates. World debt has doubled since 2008. No lessons were learned because nobody paid a price for 2008.In a decade of no return on cash people have avoided cash, so asset prices have benefitted from full investment. Debt has been forgotten because interest rates have been benign for 10 years. There is almost a contempt for debt these days imo. To give an example, not so long ago I was questioning an FD of a public company on the terms of his company's banking facilities. He indicated the spread of rates based upon relevant debt levels and covenants and I then asked if the terms of the contract allow for the lenders to move the interest margin at their discretion beyond the simple structure of the facility (as in the banks ability to override the basis of understanding should unusual circumstances dictate). He said he didn't know. This from a seasoned professional. That's how little people worry about interest rates these days.So, as interest rates rise assets will need to be sold to reduce debt and service debt. This for me will start the great unwinding. It could run smoothly but I wouldn't bet on it.I think we are where we are now (in terms of debt) simply because nobody paid the price for 2008. I suspect the price will be paid eventually.

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 14:26

MT I think your take on the commodities market is well researched and reasoned. I also expect interest rates to continue to rise as you do but with a near term driver being the imperative of the US treasury to get away a doubling of debt issues at the same time the Fed is trying to unwind their dollar balance sheet excesses and China, Russia and others are reducing dollar holdings. It's a supply and demand dynamic I think which has had Trump berating the Fed for not raising interest rates faster. I think your take will probably be right in the long run but I think there is a risk of interest rate upheaval in the short term which may postpone things a little. I suspect cash will be king again at some point, maybe sooner than later but maybe they can fudge it for a little while longer.

[mount teide] 10/3/2018 13:44

JT - As the economy allows, I'm expecting interest rates to slowly grind higher over the next 10-15 years back close to their long term average by 2030-35.

Positioned my equity portfolio accordingly in 2016/17 - 65% Commodities(Industrial metals), Shipping and oil - three sectors that have seen little investment and huge cost cutting for 6-8 years. Consequently, as the CEO of Glencore recently commented, most of the commodity industry survivors have never been leaner, more efficient or better positioned to benefit from the rising prices of their natural resource assets, as a result of supply deficits, decade low global stock inventories and industry investment, and i would add to that; a long term slowly rising interest rate environment.

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 12:37

BoE Historical Interest Rates in chartshttps://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1485/interest-rates/historical-real-interest-rate/

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 12:30

I saw that BA. Made me smile I must say

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 12:28

Bank of England Interest Rates since 1664https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OKo38R1blO71SGNIVuhaRZ4P2GYPpJQklmOymQiXixQ/htmlview?hl=en#I thought I would post this as some may find this useful as a source of data.

[blusteradjuster] 10/3/2018 12:12

That’s the end of the media studies graduate career path..



Flippy the burger-flipping robot that started work this week in a California restaurant has been forced to take a break because it was too slow.

The robot was installed at a Cali Burger outlet in Pasadena and replaced human cooks.

But after just one day at work the robot has been taken offline so it can be upgraded to work faster.

Its human helpers are also getting extra training to help the robot keep up with demand.

In a statement Miso Robotics, which made Flippy, said it was testing the code that controls the robot to ensure that it can cook quickly enough to fulfil orders at peak times.

Prior to starting work, Flippy was said to be capable of cooking up to 2,000 burgers a day.

[jtcod] 10/3/2018 12:01

Is a US Recession Loominghttps://macromatters.lgim.com/categories/economics/is-a-us-recession-looming/

[plain sailing] 09/3/2018 12:37

This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.

Despite the encouraging outcomes of previous trials, the possibility of the drug failing to impress still remains. Plenty of highly promising treatments have disappointed at the last hurdle, resulting in significant capital losses for investors. Unless you’re willing to embrace this level of risk, Immupharma shouldn’t even make it on to your watchlist, let alone into your portfolio.

That’s why — as a holder of its stock — only a small proportion of my capital is invested in the company. This money can be lost. I might grumble and curse but — thanks to a degree of diversification — I won’t lose my shirt.

That said, if — and it remains a sizeable ‘if‘ — Lupuzor proves effective (or at least more efficacious than Benlysta), I’m confident that ImmuPharma could generate huge wealth for investors in a very short time period.

[mount teide] 08/3/2018 20:13

British passport holders visiting Chile for less than 90 days do not need a visa.

[freddie ferret] 08/3/2018 19:30

Can we go there without a visa?

[mount teide] 07/3/2018 19:50

FF- Chilean Nationals can visit the UK for up to 6 months without a Visa.

CAML, ARS and CKN all again quickly setting new all-time highs following the recent general market correction, with the BDI bouncing 12%, while the FTSE 100 still languishes some 10% down - encouraging market signal for the industrial metals and shipping sectors.

[bootie64] 07/3/2018 18:55

Mikko Hypponen presentation online now for those interested

“Computer security in the past, present and future”





I always find his talks and presentations very informative

[freddie ferret] 07/3/2018 17:06

They would need visas. ?????????

[mount teide] 06/3/2018 22:56

bamboo2 - well, if she was looking to keep cutting officer numbers until she found the threshold where the number of offences started to rise again - she has certainly found it now.

And its not just UK based and EU criminals under free movement rules we are now under attack from.

South American criminal gangs are flying professional burglars to Britain to target high value homes and then replacing them every two weeks with a new crew of burglars!



Gangs in Chile are sending criminals to Britain and then replacing them every two weeks, a court heard.

Burglars are flying to the UK to target high-value homes with expensive watches and cash before returning to the South American country.

While in Britain, the thieves stage a raid and then are flown home. On their return, another wave of burglars are sent over. The replacements were being made every fortnight, Oxford Crown Court was told.........

[bamboo2] 06/3/2018 21:20

MT, re 66476 "Organised crime gangs fuel big rise in burglary" Daily Mail

Possible correlation?

=========================================

Police numbers, including the number of armed police officers, have fallen sharply under Theresa May’s watch first as home secretary between 2010 and 2016 and then as prime minister.

The simple numbers tell the story. In 2010 May as home secretary made the mistake that Margaret Thatcher never made in the 1980s and agreed to a Treasury demand to cut police budgets by 18%.

Over the next five years the number of police officers in England and Wales fell from a peak of 144,353 in 2009 to 122,859 in 2016. At the same time the number of specialist armed police officers has fallen from a peak of 6,796 in 2010 to 5,639 in 2016.

[jtcod] 06/3/2018 20:59

If only it had a head it could bite bootie. I saw the robot burger flipper today. Pretty basic stuff

[bootie64] 06/3/2018 18:33

JTCod,Yes kinda makes you wonder what features they will program in next. Oh, wait a minute...hTTps://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/21/boston-dynamics-teaching-robot-dog-fight-back-humans

[jtcod] 06/3/2018 15:07

Does anyone else find this a bit freaky to watch? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-43048666/boston-dynamics-latest-spotmini-robot-opens-doors

[the stigologist] 06/3/2018 14:45

PYC

Merck seem to be ahead of the game in innovative cancer treatments and prepared to invest serious money

[mount teide] 05/3/2018 12:06

Only in the UK!

A brazen criminal gang carries out a £25,000 burglary directly opposite Whitefield Police Station and some 10 days after reporting the incident the business owner says she is still waiting for someone to come out the station and walk across the road to investigate it; one of three similar incidents in the vicinity that night!


Organised crime gangs fuel big rise in burglary: Thieves ransack area before moving onto next target as offences nearly DOUBLE in parts of the UK.

[mount teide] 05/3/2018 11:24

Italian election result tiggers EUINO debate !

With the League and Five Star Movement, two vociferous anti EU populist parties totalling around 50% of the vote, this result is going down like a lead balloon in Brussels and the UK's Remain HQ!

The stunning electoral success of Five Star and the League was described by their leaders as a "political revolution in Italy".

The league said "for too long the EU political establishment across the Continent had thought they could cage the European people, but this result is now a remarkable change in that."

I'm amazed that the EU and its sycophantic Nation State political establishment are always shocked by these events.

As with Brexit and Trump, if the broadcast media did its job the mood of a country should be easy enough to judge, but that would involve getting outside the rich cities they are holed up in.

Instead we get the nonsense that Macron's election in France and Wilder's defeat in Holland was the turning back of the anti EU populist tide.

The light at the end of the tunnel they constantly see is in fact that of an onrushing train.