Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 18:05

All plausible explanations serratia. Thanks for your thoughts.

[serratia] 03/1/2018 18:02

JTC,

Productivity GDP/head.

1 We're moving more to a service economy so more people in low paid jobs adding less value than the declining number of higher paid jobs.

2 Low interest rates mean that poorly performing companies struggle on. At other times they would fail and the volume taken up by more efficient companies often not needing a significant change if any in head count.

3 Companies are unsure about the future so have held back on investment which would increase the profits/head count.

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 17:56

Chestnuts, I'm just thankful I took my profits when I did. Can't say I learned anything by it though. :-(Let's say Gold does spike, I just wonder if it will all be down to a world crisis or a crisis of confidence in the USD. Maybe it might be a mix of both. I note that 2017 saw the biggest drop of the USD against a basket of leading world currencies for 14 years I think I read.Part of the reason is the impending launch of the PetroYuan bourse in Shanghai which was tested last month. It may be a slow effect to start with though.

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 17:49

FreddieI have an online conversation going currently with an economist friend that started on my question of why real wages are dropping despite unemployment falling. It seemed to me contrary to normal forces of supply and demand. We have moved on to include the affects of faltering productivity growth. Do you have any personal theories on why productivity is faltering at this time?

[freddie ferret] 03/1/2018 17:41

My previous post was rushed however if you read it slowly and insert your own commas it is intelligible.

Ultimately the problem we have in this country is one of productivity growth or rather the lack of it; and what is leading to that state of affairs.

[chestnuts] 03/1/2018 17:32

JTC

How to work out where share price goes on charts which have 2 big steps in them,

Remmember when you had GKP and sold at around 200p, now GKP had 2 big steps one top at 130.5p and one at 202.5p .

Well it took 593 days to get to 202.5p if you x price movement 190 by movement 593 you get 117414.

now x 117414 by .618 = 72600 it took 200 days gives a price movement of 363

Now i have other examples which shows that this method does work but using .618 1 , 1.618 2.618 and so on.
So you can see from this you can work out where price is going

I wont bore you with all the details but i had a cycle on gold which is on the last day of June 2020 but was not sure what price you can check out my date going back probably 5 yrs ago if you google of look on the AG thread..
But if we take gold as bottomed 1 st Dec 2016 then the price i have for gold is $8602 Which is Martin Armstrongs magic number


And just to show you how 8602 is imbedded into the chart the price movement from Browns bottom to the top at $1921.6 is 1668

In April 1792 gold was first valued at $19.39
x this by 86.02 and you get 1667.9

If you go back to the gold standard ie 1973 the last fixed price was $42.63

$876.6 - 42.63 = 833.96 divide this by 19.39 = 43.01 half of 86.02

I could show you a lot more of how numbers get embedded in a chart if you are interested especialy on GKP.

[caney] 03/1/2018 16:51

JTC & zho thank you both for your replies. The next year or so could be interesting....

[zho] 03/1/2018 16:40

caney,

I'm in Oxfordshire as well, and whereas a year ago houses near me were being sold within weeks, now they're taking months to shift, even after 10% mark downs.

There are any number of factors affecting house prices but it seems to be agreed that a combination of quantitative easing and low interest rates has had a significant effect in contributing to house price inflation. The Federal Reserve has now started quantitative tightening, albeit at a modest pace, and seem to think that QT will not harm asset prices. I am unconvinced, and will be interested to see what happens if and when the BoE, ECB and BoJ follow suit.

[jtcod] 03/1/2018 16:17

caney For me the story goes like this: 2008 came along and sovereign wealth funds found that government bonds were no longer AAA so their advisers recommended they change to property mainly in major cities, London, New York, etc. A wall of money went into prestige property and the ripples were felt first in London, then the Home Counties and so on. Then Brexit hit and Sterling fell significantly. That did not enamour the managers of Sovereign Wealth funds because they lost a significant amount of value. I don't know but I doubt they will be quite so pro London property with Brexit in the offing.Over the last 9 years real wages (adjusted for inflation) have fallen. This despite falling unemployment. More concerning, productivity growth has fallen to just above zero. If I use a property sale search engine for Italy, France, Switzerland, Spain or the USA for that matter, I believe on balance there is a clear disparity with property prices compared to the UK. They are cheaper imo. It's not scientific but that is the way I see it. I would not say that UK property is likely to fall off a cliff right now and it would only meaningfully be affected by a serious slump imo, not least because of an almost unwavering belief system in UK property. It would take a lot to break that I think. The magnitude of any fall usually is affected by the magnitude of economic woe linked to a ratio of household debt to disposable income. That ratio is worse in the UK than Italy, Austria, Germany, France, USA, Belgium, Greece, Spain, Finland, Japan, Portugal and many others. In fact the UK is in the top 10 worse in regard to that ratio of all nations in the world. So we are potentially likely to be affected by a financial crises somewhat more than most.At the same time we currently live in a world where asset prices for Equities, Bonds, Property and Collectables are at record highs. The obvious reason for this is that zero interest rates have made Cash a pariah.Going back to the UK economy i think it is fair to say people are getting poorer. So far I have not seen any data that would lead me to believe that trend is about to change. If so then that trend should eventually affect buying trends in UK property. For instance I live in a 7 figure property and as every year passes I believe there are less people able to afford my house, so my target market is shrinking. If the number of buyers shrinks for a certain property then the likely time span of selling will normally stretch. In most of Europe it isn't unusual for properties to take up to 3 years to find a buyer. I think we will move to nearer 18 months for larger properties in the UK over the next few years. Part of the reason is Stamp Duty. We are moving closer and closer to the model of European countries and this means less and less people bother to move house.So a bit of a Politicians answer I am afraid but for me the most important sign is that nobody wants cash right now and asset prices are at their peaks. It rarely stays like that for long imo.

[caney] 03/1/2018 15:04

Chestnuts & JTC,
You mention the housing market. I've been bearish on UK housing for a while, but I am beginning to wonder if they will ever fall even modestly, let alone significantly. Since 2008 there has been quite a bit of Govt intervention, which has helped keep prices afloat and although I am beginning to see some small falls, the market still seems reasonably strong. That said, the market is pretty stagnant near me (Oxfordshire), with plenty of houses sitting on the market for months and with many reductions. However, there seem to be very few forced sellers, so the reductions are mostly quite small. I am seeing a lot of ex-rentals coming on to the market, presumably as Orborne's BTL tax changes beginning to bite and I hear anecdotally that fewer landlords are buying at the moment.

Are there any factors that you think may change the pace of these reductions and could the market here ever turn a bit Japanese?

Many thanks in advance.

C

[freddie ferret] 02/1/2018 17:23

Mattjos.

Your post 66175 is a very good one.

It correctly identifies the malaise that is upon us.
Basically a society where when people obey the rules do as they are supposed to and work hard they get little in return.
It is a society that has become rigid.
Property owner continue to hold property with little potential for upward mobility for those that do not.

Immigration fuels the defficiency in supply.
Student loans fuel the shortage of money.
Practically the only practical alternative is immigration for the qualified and leave the UK to import Strawberry pickers.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 16:17

Serratia

Maybe the example probably shows that it is indeed the food, and maybe its the chemicals which North Korea arnt allowed to import because of sanctions.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 16:17

Serratia

Maybe the example probably shows that it is indeed the food, and maybe its the chemicals which North Korea arnt allowed to import because of sanctions.

[serratia] 02/1/2018 16:04

Height is 65-80% genetics the rest environment (food). I read recently that the average South Korean is 6" taller than the average N. Korean which I assume is mainly due to diet.



I'm in favour of GM food but it's probably not worth debating on here as for many it moves from science to emotion and that would damage this thread.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 15:44

JTC

I think i should of said just food not GM food after all you do have to wonder why our kids are so tall after all my brothers kids who are 40 yrs old are just normal height for our family, where as my son who is 20 this yr is a good 6 inch taller than normal, and so are is friends male and female across all classes, ie very rich to very poor.
It would be interesting if any one as studied from all chidren from around the world in the last 20yrs or so.

[hottingup] 02/1/2018 15:22

Shares Magazine
Small caps poised for big news in 2018:
We look at 19 stocks primed to deliver major events in their career
21/12/2017



"Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators."


This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.


Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman)
14/3/2017
"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.

[jtcod] 02/1/2018 10:40

I'm not talking about GM food chestnuts. I'm talking about purer, cleaner, less stressed food produce than you have eaten at any time in your lifetime.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 10:25

JTC

Driveless cars i bet they wont happen on mass for at least 20yrs,


Also have you noticed how our kids are a good 6 inch taller than us, it as to be down to GM food lets face it there diet is probably worse than ours , but gm food could have affected the way they have grown what side effects from this in the yrs to come. we will have to wait and see.

[jtcod] 02/1/2018 10:19

It is going to be interesting to see how land availability changes over the next 20 years. (If I live that long). With the advent of driverless cars on the road 24 hours per day I wonder how much land will become available from decommissioned parking areas and even decommissioned railway lines. I am expecting farming to shrink its footprint substantially too whilst increasing yield substantially. Interesting times I think.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 10:13

JTC

I think its HOPE thats driving the housing market and nothing else, as proven in Japan . Japan is just 30yrs ahead of the UK as we have never let the market cleanse itself like the USA did.

[jtcod] 02/1/2018 10:09

Japanese land prices in the 6 biggest cities went down 75%. This despite Japan having higher density of population per sq km than the UK

[jtcod] 02/1/2018 10:06

That's another story chestnuts and I agree. At this rate The Garden of England will be concrete and brick in 20 years time. :-(

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 09:43

JTC

I would rather the government encouraged the young to go into industry which actually brought an income into the country. If we keep building houses eventualy we will have no land to farm.
It also goes back to high house prices , the young ones are not buying so at some time the housing market will implode like Japans, which went down to 20% of its value and i still think the demand was there, and there is always a demand. Its the lending criteria that needs to change.

[chestnuts] 02/1/2018 09:43

JTC

I would rather the government encouraged the young to go into industry which actually brought an income into the country. If we keep building houses eventualy we will have no land to farm.
It also goes back to high house prices , the young ones are not buying so at some time the housing market will implode like Japans, which went down to 20% of its value and i still think the demand was there, and there is always a demand. Its the lending criteria that needs to change.