Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[chestnuts] 30/12/2017 19:11

JTC

With reading your above posts it leaves the governments only 2 options inflation or inflation, are you not tempted to buy gold or silver

Also take a look at FTC its not an oiler

[jtcod] 30/12/2017 16:11

Interestingly I was talking to my brother over Christmas and he took out a mortgage with Barclays just before the financial crisis. The rate was fixed at 0.25% over bank base! Just goes to show how crazy those times were.

[jtcod] 30/12/2017 16:08

Car market is an interesting one MT. like you anecdotal feedback has been virtually that everyone chooses leasing these days. I have the same aversion to debt also. I ran my company with zero debt for the last 20years of operation. Zero mortgage too. It took a lot of going without home comforts at the start but the benefits have been many over time.

[mount teide] 30/12/2017 14:57

Having had a household debt to income of 0% for over a decade - i can vouch for its health benefits - lets you sleep like a log!

95% of privately purchased BMW cars are bought with finance according to the Sales Director at a local dealership - he went on to say with raised eyebrows, that a surprisingly high number of clients now remortgage property to finance a new vehicle.

Youngsters are clearly taking a lead from Government - if live today, pay tomorrow
is good enough for our ruling class then, its good enough for us!

[jtcod] 30/12/2017 14:10

I agree that well planned, costed and researched infrastructure projects make perfect sense, particularly in times of slump. That's partly the point of my post. Countries are spending way more than they are collecting in tax but it is merely covering annual costs plus interest.Scandinavia is an interesting one. On the whole the various governments manage their finances very well I think. So the high quality infrastructure is within their means. The odd thing though is their populations are among the highest in the world on the household debt to income table. There are a lot of charts available for private debt to GDP but tbh I don't believe that is as telling as household debt to income. For Scandinavia some are well above 200% and approx. double that of the UK.

[hazl] 30/12/2017 13:23

JT

I agree with much of your post and have held Iceland up as a success myself on the SHA thread.
The only thing I will say is that I think infrastructure is a worry in some cases.
I read some while back that the bridges in the US were in such dire need of attention that they should expect a major accident at some point in the future.
Again we have seen our roads deteriorate with potholes causing problems that would never have been left like that in the past.

I think the way the Scandinavian countries are run is to be admired.
There is a sense of surety , a high-cost of living perhaps,but the people appear to be more comfortable and happy compared to the average over here,with their needs cared for,education and health-care provided and their railways,fast-running,punctual and efficient from what I can gather.
Sure,taxes have to be higher but isn't that what they are for?

[jtcod] 30/12/2017 11:49

National Debt and Living Beyond Our Means:Some thoughts on the above.People never learn from excess. Not until the music stops.In October 2008 the music did not stop. It faltered and then miraculously all was well again. Within a weekend.Did we learn from our mistakes? Not a bit. There was talk of austerity but anyone who lived through the 1930's depression would soon tell us this isn't austerity. All that happened for us was our governments reduced the amount they overspent by a fraction. Easier to print money and kick the can down the road. So for the US this meant living on a measly $1 trillion annual overspend. Do you remember when the financial media predicted collapse for Europe because Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece "could not afford their debt"? Well here are the Debt to GDP figures then and now.Debt to GDP ratio changes 2008 to 2017Ireland: 45% to 70%Portugal: 70% to 130%Spain: 43% to 100%Greece: 120% to 180%Italy: 72% to 132%Japan: 192% to 250%USA: 68% to 110%UK: 50% to 90%It begs the question, how can we return to normal interest rates when it would imply almost wholesale sovereign default. Perhaps this is the new normal. Overspend, then print the money/debt to pay for it whilst also ensuring undemanding interest rates. That as we know is a race to the bottom for currencies and would logically play into the hands of holders of non-depreciating currency and precious metals.Some politicians and even economists have pointed out that similar Debt to GDP levels were seen after the war. They use it to downplay the risk but the problem with that argument is this is not the aftermath of WW2 where supply was in tatters and demand was choked. This, in many cases, is a world of over capacity. The budget overspend is simply to cover our living cost excesses plus interest. There is no shattered infrastructure where rebuilds would result in a GDP bounce and instant consumption. Demand right now is not constrained because consumers are up to their necks in debt and wages are stagnant. So 2008 came and went and we are still living beyond our means with not care for future national solvency. Debt foregiveness may become an everyday event I think.On a brighter note, this country defaulted in 2008 and unlike Greece, they took their medicine, refused more debt and told the bond holders, don't call us, we will call you when we are ready to start paying again.Iceland: 67% to 50%

[kaos3] 29/12/2017 16:53

I used to work with Andritz, was investor in Verbund for years, was active in biofuels, have friends owner small hydros ....

Dams are good as they can release power when needed and store energy by reverse pumping etc

[chestnuts] 29/12/2017 10:48

I use to build water turbines for a small company called Gilkes, one of my last jobs i did was help do some maintenance on a Turbine which was 147yrs old at the time and in this period it had only 3 periods of major maintance which was to change the bearing which was stainless steel, and afterwards we chatted about how come it had lasted so long was down to the fact the weekly maintance was to grease this bearing, the new wind turbines have automatic greasers, sealed bearings are made to have a limited life, as the grease carbonates from compression so the bearing wears out.

I will also add when i worked there 30yrs ago they had a turnover of around £5m the last i looked a few yrs ago it had grown to £55m

[top tips] 29/12/2017 10:18

Immupharma (IMM) expect Phase 3 lupuzor results in late January.

Predicted multi-billion $ sales, could 50+ bag.

[kaos3] 29/12/2017 09:18

I was thinking public companies like Verbundgeselschaft in Austria and similar. Doing your own small hydro in non EU regulation is a different story

[jtcod] 29/12/2017 08:59

When I last looked at Hydro the economics of small 'river runs' had better return than a Dam. That may have changed but at the time (5 Year's ago) countries with the natural terrain for such small projects such as Georgia were quite vibrant in this area. The nice thing was that anyone could buy up the rights and start their own under license.

[kaos3] 29/12/2017 08:36

Years ago I wanted to buy hydro - Swiss and Austrian - did anyone study the economics of the best green?

study uranium market atm. 60 production cost, 28 selling. demand growing

I was given a specific nuke numbers - investment 3bn, turnover 200-300mil, profit 20-30mil

how much is a total production cost of a green electricity (in energy terms) - energy in/energy out - considering also the efficiency and time span. not financials.

Matt - thank you for your kindness

[mattjos] 29/12/2017 07:42

Kaos, as politely as I can be .. what an utter load of rubbish

[hottingup] 27/12/2017 20:57

This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
Tue. 26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.

[mount teide] 27/12/2017 12:07

TOT - investing in a single company within the shipping industry is probably not the way to go unless you're extremely familiar with the industry and its sectors.

To minimise investment risk it might be prudent to consider a shipping industry ETF like (SEA) or a major shipbroker like Clarksons CKN, as this route offers both diversity through exposure to a large number of major shipping companies and sectors(Oil Tanker/Container/Dry Bulk/LNG/Offshore), and in addition, exposure to the US dollar in a rising interest rate environment, since the overwhelming amount of revenue earned in the shipping industry is denominated in US dollars.

No investment advice offered, inferred or intended.

AIMHO/DYOR

[the oak tree] 27/12/2017 11:50

RE the shipping sector and maybe investing for a recovery in the years ahead:



So this is just evidence of existing pain from the shipping sector. South Korean shipping co shares fall 29%. Am sure there must be bargains.....as I do like to be a contrarian when I can!:)

[the oak tree] 27/12/2017 11:39

M.T. - "The last shipping boom peaked in 2008....."

Have you any ideas on which companies are best to invest in to back this recovery of the shipping industry ?

Thanks for any info
Oak