Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 07/2/2018 14:03

Great pick MT

[jtcod] 07/2/2018 11:26

I wonder have any of you guys experienced crazy financial calculations on your data at HMRC? Particularly in adding and subtracting what you have paid against what you owe? It wouldn't surprise me if the whole system were corrupted. Some of the contradictions in their own calculations at any moment in time are astonishing. I have had payments confirmed as taken but subsequently not taken and confirmed not taken verbally by HMRC Only to be debited a week later after I have made another payment. I have had calculations which arrived at the correct taxation figure though quoting a wrong taxation % in the calculation that arrived at the figure. I have had calculations for refund bearing no resemblance to what I have paid and on two pages at the same time arriving at a completely different figure, neither of which are remotely correct! I have notes on line which say they sent this document to me but it never arrived even though as far as I can ascertain all data on me is correct and I have ceased to receive access codes on my mobile since Monday despite the correct mobile number being held.

[mount teide] 07/2/2018 09:38

Well, well - do as we say not as we do or you will be punished

Mostly, the only people who would dare use the word Punishment in adult company are EU Dictators and judges when sentencing criminals - if you tried to use that word in a business negotiation you would not only scupper any chance of a deal but, put yourself at extreme risk of, to use an Australian Rugby League phrase - "copping a right hander!"



'Germany is the leading breaker of EU rules'

Predictably, Spain, Belgium, Greece, Portugal and France closely follow violating nearly more than double the rules that the UK and more than 50% of the other EU Nations did.

As mentioned previously, many of the major manufacturing Nations of the EU like Germany simply see EU legislation as a cost to business and will flout or slowly implement the rules to get a cost advantage over the fools like the UK, Denmark and Holland and many of the small Eastern European Nations to their credit that implement and police compliance in line with the regulations.



'No other country seems to lecture EU states as much as Germany. But, embarrassingly, Angela Merkel’s government is in breach of European regulations more than anyone else.

Yes, it’s really true: Germany is the top rule breaker in the European Union. The country, which has lectured debt sinners like Greece, performs worst in complying with European Union legislation. Physician, heal thyself.

New figures from Germany’s Economics Ministry reveal that Angela Merkel’s government currently faces no less than 74 infringement proceedings for failing to adequately and timely convert EU rules into German law. “We’re no longer the model pupil – we’re bottom of the class,” Green Party politician Markus Tressel told Handelsblatt. The Green Party requested the numbers from the ministry.

The latest available EU-wide data, which uses figures from the end of 2016, already shows Germany topping the list of violators, together with Spain. And though the ministry’s new figures show a decrease, it’s still 20-percent higher than in 2012. “The government performs badly in converting EU directives into national law, especially in the areas of traffic and environment,” said Mr. Tressel.

The violations cover key issues affecting health and safety, including air pollution, traffic noise, fire protection measures and water quality, according to the ministry’s figures. Germany’s transportation ministry currently faces 20 infringement procedures, while the environment and finance ministries come in second and third.....


....To a certain degree, the new revelations are a deja-vu of 2003, when Germany was the first country to break deficit rules that apply to all 19 euro-zone countries. Frugal European countries, especially Germany, had been pushing for strict regulations to limit budget deficits and debt levels. When Germany failed to reign in its deficit in the aftermath of the dot.com bust and ensuing recession, it agreed with France the rules didn’t apply.

The new figures also show that Germany sometimes simply doesn’t bother to create the necessary corresponding laws.

[mount teide] 06/2/2018 21:56

The late Kerry Packer demonstrating how to deal with a Government Committee - his 1991 House of Reps Select Committee on Print Media appearance. It concludes with perhaps the most famous Australian anti-government quote.

[jtcod] 06/2/2018 09:13

Alarm Bell is Ringing Loud and Clearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-04/bond-market-s-debt-ceiling-alarm-bell-is-ringing-loud-and-clear

[jtcod] 06/2/2018 09:07

Call me an old cynic but this jump in Wage inflation reported in the US is very convenient in its timing. I just wonder if they may have to correct it down the road.If it is real then companies with currently high pension deficits may present special opportunities in the mayhem.

[jtcod] 05/2/2018 13:57

I guess someone that smart is quite a high value commodity in these days of cyber espionage? :-)

[jtcod] 05/2/2018 13:46

That Lauri Love case has me wondering. Forget today's ruling on extradition, why would a judge previously have overruled a UK case to have him provide his encryption passwords? The prosecution services have had the computer for 5 years and can't breach the encryption?After the password ruling a group of MP's even wrote to President Obama asking him to block the extradition order. This seems to be no ordinary kid prankster who just so happened to stumble into the systems of the Defence Department, US Army, Federal Reserve, NASA and FBI. If it were just a personal test to see if it can be done then why download their files? (Allegedly)Why is he (seemingly) being protected by our judiciary when others are just thrown to the wolves?

[zho] 05/2/2018 11:30

Re treasury yields, this is fromDeutsche Bank, quoted in this morning:

The move to higher inflation and higher yields probably won’t be a straight line but the risks are building that 2018 could have moments of big adjustments and spikes in vol. A reminder that our credit forecasts for 2018 are for IG to widen 25bps and HY c.100bps due to higher inflation and yields.

On this, our colleagues in rates and economics have raised their end-2019 Fed Terminal rates to 2.75% (from 2.45%) and year-end 2018 10yr US yield forecast to 3.25% (from 2.95% prior).

[zho] 04/2/2018 15:41

>>The whole matrix is a conundrum for those trying to stay one step ahead.>>

Ain't that the truth ;-)

I wonder what will happen if (when) we get another recession. Central banks are not in a position to slash interest rates as they've done in the past, unless, as some economists appear to be suggesting, we have negative interest rates. So will that mean yet more QI, before central banks have begun to make a meaningful dent in what they've already created?

[jtcod] 04/2/2018 15:21

I hadn't noticed your S&P yield situation zho. That is another fascinating juncture.The whole matrix is a conundrum for those trying to stay one step ahead. I look at the world of assets and see asset classes (Bonds, Equities, Property and Collectables) all over-valued because cash has become a pariah. I am not so sure it needs to be a case of bonds or equities. If interest rates rise, cash is an option and cash has no liquidity problems unlike the others. For me when this 10 year phase turns the players who will make the most will be those with a currency strategy rather than just an asset strategy. I think the leading financial concerns today are Treasury, Central Bank and Currency related. Budgets, Interest rates and Servicing debt are at the heart of it for me. I wouldn't mind betting there will be more than a few economics books written about what happens next. :-)

[zho] 04/2/2018 14:55

Re post 66351 >>It will be interesting as those contrasting pressures come to bear.>>

Yes, it will, and it's doing my head in.

Quantitative tightening (the Fed expects to buy back roughly $600 billion of treasuries in each of the next 3 years) and issuance of up to $1 trillion in treasuries in 2018 (to cover an increasing budget deficit) should push up yields.

But treasury yields are now starting to look attractive compared to the yield on the S&P500 (the yield on 2 year T bills now beats the return on the S&P500) and this may lead to some buying pressure, forcing treasury yields down. In addition, Albert Edwards expects deflation to force yields down.

But …. the crash in equities in 1987 was preceded by a sell off in treasuries (against the backdrop, then, as now, of a weakening dollar) and that would lead to yields increasing.

Aaargh!

[mount teide] 03/2/2018 22:49

Leaked Treasury report simply represents “Project Fear Mark II” from a group of hugely embittered senior public sector workers who cannot accept the result of the referendum and will do literally anything to reverse it - legal or illegal!


Ahead of the referendum, Osborne’s Treasury said voting to leave would result in “an immediate and profound economic shock”, with GDP contracting 1pc during the three months after the referendum. The economy actually grew by 0.5pc.


“Immediately following a Brexit vote”, we’d see “four quarters of negative growth”, the Treasury told us. Growth has been positive ever since.


Osborne’s “sums” pointed to an 820,000 rise in unemployment after any Brexit vote. Unemployment last week fell to a 42-year low.



Game set and Brexit - with a record like that, who would invest in an equity fund run by any of that lot !



Edit:

Predictably, the Treasury has failed to publish the maths of their model - now there is a surprise!


If it was published, we could likely show how totally absurd its assumptions are.


These economists purport themselves to be enthusiastically pro-free trade, yet nonetheless are great supporters of the UK's membership of the EU – notoriously, the worst large protectionist trade cartel in the world.

After the Baltic Dry Index bottomed in 2016 some 98% down from the 2008 peak it is now possible to ship a 40ft freight container to the Far East/China cheaper than any of us could fly there!

[mount teide] 03/2/2018 22:20

The actions of top civil servants, especially in the Treasury, show that Brexit is now fundamentally about who is actually running this country and, much more importantly, who runs Europe in the future.

Senior civil servants obviously think that a unified, not united, Europe should be run by a very small, unaccountable elite and their loyalties lie with the EU Coudenhove-Kalergi faction, not to the nation state.

The kind of freedom of speech and democracy that we took for granted until 1997 is in grave danger of extinction.

If anybody thinks that the European Parliament could possibly be a vehicle of true democracy in the Brave New Europe, they are completely mad. If Brexit fails it will be because of the civil servants, not the lame brained politicians.

And if Brexit fails, democracy in this country and in Europe is dead and buried.

[kaos3] 03/2/2018 07:34

per capita energy consumption by source



observations:

' coal is still important
' nuclear is very small
' direct sun conversion is on the down
' stored sun conversion (oil, gas coal) is being used up

suns natural direct conversion of the energy as the most efficient machine (plants) is on the down - less green areas such a forrest, collapsing biodiversity.

when stored sun energy Will be used up humanity Will have problems going back to the natural cycle because it harmed the nature too much

natural suns energy conversion is being replaced by less efficient and more costly man made conversion machines. with better integration capabilities into the modern systems and higher concentration of energy in the right form (electricity)

[jtcod] 02/2/2018 17:31

Historic Schiller PE Charthttp://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

[jtcod] 02/2/2018 17:17

Haha
Every so often Matt I say to my son “stop a while to appreciate how well your life has gone over the last 10 years. Life doesn’t work like this all the time.”
It’s good to appreciate our good fortune once in a while. Many are not so lucky.

Regarding cash, we think alike!

[mattjos] 02/2/2018 16:51

Hi JT .. yes, '17 was a record year & '18 continuing in the same vein - for now.
Although I can only trade what I see in front of us, my intuition/gut feeling is at odds with the day to day so, I am trying to build a cash pile now, in both £ & € to try and ensure we are well placed to ride out what I believe is coming at us later this year and next.
Becoming very difficult to recruit any decent staff though. Anyone with a degree, under 32/33 years old, has not yet experienced a recession. They have left uni and then only experienced growth years in their work experience. Interest rates nailed to the floor and plenty of job openings. It's been very easy for them & this is absolutely their expectation of normality.
What is looming on the horizon is going to come as a huge shock to all those in that category.

[jtcod] 02/2/2018 12:03

Hi Matt I hope your business is still performing well.In a way QE was a firewall for treasury departments but the fire has not gone away and firewalls only last so long.

[mattjos] 02/2/2018 11:15

Yes, could not agree more JT.My instinct is they will try the former but, quickly be forced into the latter.The debt loading is now so high that it will not take much by way of interest rate rises before demand is quickly choked off. USA student & Auto debt likely be the trigger this time around rather than residential mortgages.The rise of the gold backed PetroYuan looks inevitable, starting this year. Going to be a huge currency schism this year

[jtcod] 02/2/2018 11:04

I also think the world has watched Central banks adjust interest rates according to economic considerations for so long now that it is assumed they always have that choice. The fact is under certain circumstances that may not be given.

[jtcod] 02/2/2018 10:56

Hi ZhoIt will be interesting as those contrasting pressures come to bear. Inflation and deflation can be seen in many parts of the US economy depending upon where you look. Whereas a need for increased investment in US treasury bonds is not something that is open for interpretation in the same way because it is fact. In the past QE could be used to balance demand shortage wherever it occurred and drive interest rates down. As Wells Fargo Securities has noticed, the backdrop has changed. The Fed is trying to unwind its leverage at the same time China, Russia and the Far East are going with PetroYuan and EU central bank and Deutche Bank have begun to reduce their dollar holdings in favour of the Yuan. I've been waiting for this situation to arise ever since the first QE appeared. What will happen when they try to go back to normal? (As in a world without QE.) It seems to me the US has two choices if in fact demand for the greenback were to fall short of expectations: 1) Increase interest rates to entice investors or 2) Persuade the Fed to restart QE. I'm watching with great interest.

[zho] 02/2/2018 10:06

Re treasuries, post 66348.

Here's an alternative view from Albert Edwards, taken from yesterday's FTAlphaville blog:

PM
Regular readers will know that immediately after our early-January Strategy Conference, I de-camp to the Caribbean for two weeks in my personal fight against Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD – yes being bearish really does take a toll). This year we chose to visit Jamaica for the first time. Our colonial style hotel was previously the haunt of actors (Noel Coward), film stars (Marilyn Monroe), politicians (Winston Churchill), and royalty (Princess Margaret). Neither a State of Emergency being declared down the road in Montego Bay nor what locals said was the wettest January weather for decades prevented me absorbing large quantities of sunlight. I can reassure readers I am restored to my bearish best.
11:36 am
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hehe
11:36 am
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He's dismissing all this bond bear market stuff
11:37 am
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With the US 10y yield breaking above its long-term downtrend, equity prices have begun to wobble. Although I agree with the bond bears that US yields will continue to rise, causing more problems for equities, I do not believe bond yields have yet seen a secular bottom. I repeat my forecast that US 10y yields will fall below zero.
11:37 am
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But he has a get out clause
11:37 am
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Why do I think yields could go negative? Well I expect that the true extent of how close the US is to actual outright deflation, and hence how high real yields currently are, will soon be revealed. But before US 10y yields turn negative, expect them to visit 3% first.
11:38 am
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I'll leave it there