Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 31/3/2022 15:24

This thread is to engender dialogue, discussion and involvement of other posters, posting information and points of view of both sides in an objective, informative and hopefully sometimes interesting manner so others can carefully explore, examine and interpret the value of the information while not necessarily intended to change other posters attitude towards investing in Russia or JRS.

Not trying to Sell an opinion, or are really recommending a specific course of action, rather give all on this thread a better understanding and knowledge about the investment environment in Russia with which to form their own opinion on whether or not they choose to invest.

[biggest bill] 31/3/2022 14:52

Is there a competition to post the most negative views possible on this trust? Is there a prize? How about aliens arriving tomorrow and wiping out all of humanity which will render this trust's assets worthless. Is this any more ridiculous than Popit's post?

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 14:09

Read the agenda RN

[popit] 31/3/2022 13:54

Must be a very high risk here that this will be wound up. Why would JP Morgan, a US bank, want to be associated with this Russian investment vehicle when every other company like BP is breaking all links with Russia? Would expect this to be wound up and assets sold for roubles in the next few months which are not even convertible to dollars or euros. Could be looking at zero value for these shares after all charges and expenses.

[loganair] 31/3/2022 13:35

Russia and India are currently negotiating a ruble-rupee payment mechanism after Moscow offered the development of an alternative to SWIFT to its trade partner. The arrangement aims to boost commerce between the two countries by avoiding dollar-denominated trade. It would allow India to continue purchasing Russian oil, weapons, and other goods in either the ruble or the Indian rupee.

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 13:33

That theory is true during war, sanctions and lock ups however when this changes or moves towards change so the disconnect will close. Inflation isn't a problem when invested only when in cash.

[loganair] 31/3/2022 13:27

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated on Wednesday that all of the nation's energy and commodity exports (incl. oil, gas, coal, fertilizer, food/grains, metals, timber) could be priced in rubles.

[loganair] 31/3/2022 13:13

Exchange rate now 107 Rub to the Pound & 82 Rub to the USD.

This shows that the Rouble exchange rate is now less than 5% from where it was before they went into the Ukraine. At one point it was 180 Rub to the Pound, therefore the Rouble has strengthen by circa 42% over the past 3 weeks.

[tigerbythetail] 31/3/2022 12:41

Farrugia - the point is that foreign investors still can't get out of Russia.
Yes, tomorrow they can sell their Russian shares for roubles, which they could then put in a Russian bank and get a reasonable interest rate return (in roubles) on them, but they can't convert those roubles into hard currency and export them.
The rouble now is basically inconvertible - a closed system.
So to value this stock you have to take into account this fact, and the likelihood of inflation / hyper-inflation and economic depression hitting Russia over the next six months. This, of course, is high.
In the end, perhaps the best thing to do is to use the black market street rate of 150 roubles to the dollar, and value the assets that way. That gives a NAV of around 220p per share. Knock a third off that for the extra risk of Russia and you get to the current price of JRS. I.e. it is currently "about right", and not a fantastic bargain as some posters seem to believe.
I hope this helps!

[bondholder] 31/3/2022 12:40

Although Moex up 6 percent several of the big holdings up more VTB 13 percent, Gazprom 12 percent,Rosneft 12 percent etc

[bondholder] 31/3/2022 12:32

It doesn't feel like market about to crash. Surely there would be some sort of decline in anticipation of the feared blood bath?

[mister md] 31/3/2022 12:13

hmm, all main European markets in the red, but MOEX up almost 6 % now ...

[dil 21] 31/3/2022 11:06

Farrugia , don’t hold then … simple.

[mister md] 31/3/2022 10:29

some big moves today-

Oil prices down 5%

MOEX now up 5%

[farrugia] 31/3/2022 10:11

hmm i don't think i would want to hold this when foreigners will be allowed to get out? there is likely to be a stampede given the severe sanctions?

[mister md] 31/3/2022 10:02

Russian equities advanced as the nation partly lifted the short-selling ban on local stocks on Thursday, removing one of the measures that helped limit the declines in the market after a record long shutdown.

The MOEX Russia Index jumped as much as 4.5% on Thursday, with gas giant Gazprom PJSC and oil producer Lukoil PJSC leading the gains. Professional market participants, including brokers and banks, are now able to short some of the biggest Russian equities, while the clients of brokers, including retail investors, will continue to be restricted from short sales, the Moscow Exchange said.

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 09:14

Fair point