Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 29/7/2021 11:44

Russia’s economy exceeded the pre covid level of the fourth quarter of 2019 by 0.1% in June 2021, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Wednesday. Russian annual inflation at 6.5% as of 19 July - economy ministry.

[loganair] 28/7/2021 10:59

Oil is taking a well-earned rest. But the bull market isn’t done yet: The oil price has more than doubled in the last five years. It’s come off the boil recently, but in the longer term, things are still looking good. Dominic Frisby looks at what’s next for oil. Today we consider oil. Where’s it going next – up or down? That’s the question we all want to know the answer to, or at least I do, and so that is the question I shall be asking myself today. Let’s start with some background – and we shall use Brent as our benchmark. The noughties was the oil decade. In 1999 oil went below $10/barrel. In early 2008 it was $147.50. A fifteen bagger, no less. The 2010s began well with Brent trading constantly above $100. Then in mid-2014 two years of horrible bear market saw it drop from $115-odd to $27 by early 2016. That was when we started sniffing around. In late 2018, oil was flirting with $87. By 2020 the oil price has gone negative – negative! – and to this day we remain unsure what happened to the cat. Oil wants to sell off right now, but demand will only increase: Now we are feeling a bit jumpy again. Oil looks like it wants to sell off. In fact, last week it did sell off – it lost ten bucks in barely the blink of an eye. But now it’s bounced back again with impressive vim. Then again, it does now seem to be in something of an intermediate-term downtrend. The spat between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over oil production quotas seems to have abated, and now the Opec nations together with Russia have agreed to increase their output with the aim of reducing prices and easing pressure on the world economy. The supply boost starts in August. Please don’t ask me to explain Opec or how that line of thinking works. Surely if you are selling something you want to get the most you can for it, not the least? If you are an oil producer you want a bull market. Especially if oil supplies really are running down – the pressure to get the biggest return intensifies. Surely? They’re not producing oil for the fun of it, or for charity. It’s always baffled me, and no doubt there is some kind of geo-political shadiness behind the scenes that explains it all, but in the meantime I shake my head and carry on. With some broad brush strokes, oil demand, green energy revolution or not, is set to increase. The Covid setback will look like a blip on a long-term chart of oil demand – falling by around 10% before bouncing straight back – and demand now looks set to hit 100 million barrels per day next year. I keep banging the drum on this: the Green Energy Revolution is going to increase oil demand. Meanwhile social pressure and government pressure, through taxes and laws, will mean reduced expenditure on exploration and development. The result will be higher prices. So my outlook is that we consolidate over the next few months, we back and fill. We might even go back and have another look at $50. But in the longer-term, oil goes higher – much higher – and oil at $100 in 2022 is not such a remote possibility.

[velvetide] 08/6/2021 14:20

Rouble's continuing to strengthen, good technicals

[loganair] 06/6/2021 08:16

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that laying the pipes for the first of two lines of the prospective Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany has now been "successfully completed." Russian energy giant Gazprom "is ready to start filing Nord Stream 2 with gas," he added. Describing the U.S. use of the dollar as a political weapon, Putin also said that European states should pay for Russian gas in euros, a day after Moscow said it would remove dollar assets from its National Wealth Fund while increasing the share of the euro, Chinese yuan, and gold. "The euro is completely acceptable for us in terms of gas payments. This can be done, of course, and probably should be done," he said.

[loganair] 06/6/2021 08:10

Russia and Saudi Arabia reject calls to end oil and gas spending, call IEA’s net-zero plan ‘unrealistic’ Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the IEA had ostensibly arrived at its findings “by using reverse calculations” on how to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. “In my view this a simplistic approach. It is also unrealistic,” Novak told CNBC at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

[loganair] 31/5/2021 14:50

An activist hedge fund, Engine No. 1, just won at least two seats on the board of ExxonMobil. The hedge fund campaigned for the seats by claiming the oil giant is not doing enough to position for climate change. About the same time, Royal Dutch Shell lost a court case over greenhouse gas emissions. A judge ordered the company to follow a prescribed path to lower not only the company’s greenhouse gas emissions, but also those of its clients. Both situations point to the possibility of large energy companies turning away from oil and gas exploration well before renewable energy is ready for prime time. Electric vehicles suffer both from limited range and from long recharging times. We will still use internal combustion vehicles for years to come. If energy companies curb exploration and production before we can efficiently transition to electric vehicles, then the cost of petrol and diesel will march higher as supply dwindles. Russia and OPEC members will enjoy profit windfalls, while drivers around the world pay the price.

[loganair] 28/5/2021 12:05

Big oil is under pressure to cut production – what does that mean for investors? Big oil majors including Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron are under pressure from institutional shareholders to reduce emissions. John Stepek looks at how this will affect oil investors. It’s been a tough week for big oil. The world’s second-biggest listed oil company, ExxonMobil, now has a couple of board members who want it to stop producing oil. Meanwhile, Royal Dutch Shell has been told by a Dutch court that it needs to make more effort to cut its emissions. So what does all of this mean? The consequences of making it harder for Big Oil to produce oil: Let’s start with the obvious point. If you make it harder for oil companies to produce oil, then there will be less of it around. If there’s less of it around, it will cost more than it otherwise would have. And as Louis Gave of Gavekal pointed out before this ruling, “growing ESG constraints and restricted access to capital mean that Western oil firms are not exactly falling over themselves to drill new wells, or deploy new rigs.” Now, as highlighted by the FT’s Javier Blas on Twitter, “Big oil will likely have to reduce capex even further” with Exxon and Chevron following “Shell/BP into managed output decline. That’s bullish oil price”. Secondly, the oil companies who are allowed to meet demand – that is, the ones run by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and all the other cuddly members of oil cartel Opec-plus – will reap the benefit of that, assuming they can maintain a bit of discipline when it comes to pumping the extra oil.

[flying pig] 19/5/2021 20:55

785p assets 682p price discount remains OK

[loganair] 10/5/2021 19:20

The main ruble-denominated index on the Moscow Exchange reached the 3,700-point level for the first time ever on Monday, as global oil prices continue to climb. The ruble-traded MOEX index was up nearly 0.7% on Monday afternoon and stood at 3,708 points as of 11:55am GMT. Earlier in the day, the index, which covers stocks of major Russian companies listed on the Moscow Exchange, hit a new all-time high of 3,711 points. The index has risen over 12% since the beginning of the year and is up by 4% in May alone. Monday’s gains mark the second time in less than a week that the Russian stock market has smashed its own record. The stock rally comes as global crude prices continue to rise. It could be also linked to the inflows of cash from funds investing in Russia, RBC reported, citing analysts from investment company Freedom Finance. They pointed that the weakening of the US dollar boosts commodity prices as well as safe heaven assets like gold, and a lot of raw material companies are present on the Russian market.

[hindsight] 08/5/2021 14:53

aurelius, I think it has already from a flag due to commodities. Where do you have breakout ?

[aurelius5] 07/5/2021 19:31

This should break out soon.

[loganair] 17/4/2021 11:15

Russia continues reducing its foreign debt, cuts it by $10.8 BILLION since start of year: Russia’s total external debt has fallen by 2.3% in the first quarter of the year, and was worth $459.3 billion as of April 1, data from the central bank shows. The nation’s foreign debt totaled $470.1 billion as of January 1. It has been dropping since mid-2014, when it reached its peak of around $733 billion in the wake of US and EU sanctions. At the same time, Russia has been boosting its foreign reserve holdings, which stood at $574.8 billion as of April 2, an increase of over $40 billion last year.

[flying pig] 29/3/2021 12:01

734p asset value, 653p share price, decent discount12% plus.

[flying pig] 29/3/2021 11:59

734p asset value, 653p share price, decent discount12% plus.

[velvetide] 11/3/2021 16:41

Rouble trying to strengthen, good technicals

[loganair] 18/2/2021 09:37

Jim Rogers bullish on Russia thanks to ‘lots of oil & agriculture': There are bubbles developing in stock and bond markets, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers. However, he says he is very optimistic on agriculture as a commodity and also likes equities in Japan and Russia. “Yes, bubbles are beginning to develop. We do not have full-fledged bubbles yet except in bonds, bonds everywhere are a full-fledged bubble,” Rogers said in an interview with India’s Economic Times. “At the moment, if I will buy countries, I would buy Japan, I would buy Russia; both are still down dramatically but lots of money is going to pour into both of them because they are cheap and likewise agriculture. I am not buying America; America is at an all-time high. So, Japan, Russia, agriculture.” Talking about crude, Rogers said, it’s at the highest it has been in years, with the production and the reserves going down. “The bubble popped in fracking and now people realize, oh my gosh, world supplies are declining. At the end, I am buying Russia because Russia is depressed and Russia has a lot of oil and a lot of agriculture.” He also said: “We are going to have much higher prices of food, fuel and nearly all commodities. The single cheapest asset is steel commodities. Bonds are a bubble as we discussed, a bubble is developing in stock exchanges also. Commodities are still very cheap on a historic basis, silver is still down 45 percent from the all-time high.”

[rambutan2] 08/2/2021 21:15

Presentation by Oleg Biryulyov from last week: hTtps://quoteddata.com/research/quoteddatas-world-webinar-series-europe-day-playback/

[loganair] 08/2/2021 14:57

Investment bank Morgan Stanley believes that the threat of sanctions against Russia linked to the case of jailed opposition figure Alexey Navalny would not pose risk to the country's macroeconomic outlook.

[loganair] 04/2/2021 14:37

1. Putin doesn't care about the sanctions. 2. China and Europe need and therefore will keep buying Russian gas no matter what. 3. The world needs and will keep buying the grains Russia exports no matter what otherwise many countries will starve.

[johnyo] 04/2/2021 12:12

Ioganair Do you think the Navalny protests will continue or just fizzle out ?With Biden in Power I would think some more sanctions comingMaybe from the EU as well

[loganair] 12/1/2021 14:14

The gold share of Russia’s foreign exchange holdings rose to 22.9 percent over the year to June 30, 2020, according to data revealed by the country’s central bank. At the same time, the share of US dollar shrank to 22.2 percent from 24.2 percent, while the share of the euro dropped to 29.5 percent from 30.6 percent. The bank also decreased its holdings of Chinese yuan to 12.2 percent from 13.2 percent. The assets have been steadily growing over recent years and have exceeded the half-a-trillion-dollar target set by the regulator. The forex reserves totaled $593.6 billion by the end of last year.

[flying pig] 11/1/2021 14:39

Loganair Any news or views?

[loganair] 08/1/2021 22:15

Russian stock market hits all-time high as hopes for recovery boost global investment sentiment. The MOEX rose by more than two percent to a new record of 3,462 points on the last trading day of the week. Russian energy companies enjoyed the largest gains, with shares of nickel and palladium miner Nornickel jumping over five percent to their new maximum price. Rosneft, Novatek, and Gazprom were up over four percent boosted by positive dynamics in global oil prices.

[aurelius5] 23/12/2020 20:01

Thanks for your work here, Loganair. The trust is certainly an interesting proposition. Rising commodity prices should enhance returns and, hopefully, strengthen the Rouble, which, given Russia's trade surplus and low debt to GDP ratio, is already undervalued.