Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc LSE:JRS London Ordinary Share GB0032164732 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  22.00 3.67% 622.00 138,367 16:35:27
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
616.00 622.00 620.00 602.00 602.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 17.58 29.58 21.0 282
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:56:53 O 48,487 604.00 GBX

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01/12/202014:24Russia - Good Long Term Investment653
25/9/202014:15From Russia with Love1,599
06/9/202008:24Jim O’Neill - 10 Years of Russia’s economic growth and it's future48
30/1/202012:36Visiting and Living in Russia113
17/5/201421:11JRS----Russia for Value-

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Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Daily Update: Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc is listed in the Equity Investment Instruments sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker JRS. The last closing price for Jpmorgan Russian Securit... was 600p.
Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc has a 4 week average price of 550p and a 12 week average price of 540p.
The 1 year high share price is 804p while the 1 year low share price is currently 410p.
There are currently 45,305,556 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 68,580 shares. The market capitalisation of Jpmorgan Russian Securities Plc is £281,800,558.32.
loganair: David Stevenson - I also think that Russia could be a relative star in 2021 (though I also thought that in 2020, wrongly) largely because its government has more financial firepower to spur growth, especially if energy prices start to tick up. Yields of more than 5% are worth grabbing too. JPMorgan Russian Securities (LSE: JRS) may thus be worth a look.
loganair: hs - It seems to me most Private Retail Investors are too fearful about investing in Russia whereas for me, investing in Russian stocks, not just JRS, other Russian stocks quoted on the LSE have been one of my best investments over the past 20 years with the icing on the cake being a very good dividend yield on my original investment in JRS.
loganair: The Board of JPMorgan Russian Securities plc announces that it has declared an interim dividend of 25.00 pence per share, for the year ending 31(st) October 2020, to be paid on 30(th) October 2020 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 2(nd) October 2020. The ex-dividend date is 1(st) October 2020.
loganair: In a major strategy shift, Sberbank (JRS 3rd Largest Investment), the most popular Russian lender, wants to build its own ecosystem going far beyond the world of finance and to be known not just as a bank, but also as a tech company. During its first major online event, which was held on Thursday, Sberbank – now rebranded as Sber – presented a range of services and gadgets signaling it wants to go deeper into the tech sector. For example, the bank presented a family of “emotionalR21; virtual assistants, called ‘Salute’, which will be incorporated into all of Sberbank’s devices and mobile apps. “We are the first and the only bank in the world which started to produce a smart device,” Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said. He noted that in order to become a company that can develop tech products, it had to go through a massive “transformation” that took five years. There are three assistants in the Salute family, called Sber, Joy, and Athena. Unlike Apple’s Siri or Amazon’s Alexa, the company is betting on the “emotionalR21; features of the virtual assistants, as each has its own “temper,”; allowing users to choose the one they find most suitable. In addition to a logo change and new financial service features, like SberPay (an alternative to ApplePay and GooglePay), Sber also presented a TV streaming box called SberBox and a smart speaker called SberPortal. Both devices give access to a wide range of Sber services, while SberPortal, featuring gesture and voice recognition, will allow users to control other devices in the house. In another step towards joining the Big Tech pantheon, Sber also launched a SmartMarket platform. The service is somewhat similar to App Store and Google Play, and will allow additional features for virtual assistants to enable businesses and entrepreneurs to produce their own apps. Russian airline S7 already has access to the platform and announced that it will create its own app on it. The lender wants to boost revenues from the fast-growing non-financial sector by 20 to 30 percent, according to officials. This year, these services are expected to bring the bank around 70 billion rubles ($911 million), accounting for around five percent of all its operational revenues.
loganair: China, Russia Deepen Ties Amid Pandemic, Conflicts With West – Analysis: Building Ties: While the pandemic has made China an even more vital economic lifetime and market for Russia, Moscow has become a more needed partner for Beijing as it collides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration over a wide range of issues: from a trade war to problems involving Hong Kong and rights in the South China Sea. This new dynamic offers a turnaround of the forces that drove Beijing and Moscow together following the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, where Russia was placed in the crosshairs of Western sanctions. During that period, it was Russia that leaned on a sometimes reluctant China to deepen relations to escape U.S. pressure. Now — as their ties have extended into areas such as military, technology, and finance — those roles are shifting. “Before Trump, China was cautious to embrace Moscow geopolitically to the fullest extent, but Beijing has determined that U.S. pressure won’t let up, so they have no choice but to move closer to Russia,” said Lukin. “Today, it is China, not Russia, that is more interested in forming this quasi-alliance.̶1; Russia-China collaboration took off in 2014 after the forcible annexation of Crimea and the ensuing war in eastern Ukraine and has since grown into a variety of domains. One such area of late has been efforts to limit reliance on the U.S. dollar, a process called de-dollarization. The U.S. dollar holds a powerful place in the global financial system as the world’s reserve currency and de-dollarization has become a priority for both China and Russia to protect their bottom line and push back against American dominance. Replacing the dollar in trade settlements became a necessity to circumvent U.S. sanctions against Russia and efforts have gained speed following Washington’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods. Experts have long warned about efforts to limit the dollar’s privileged role in the world, and though such attempts have not had much success, Beijing and Moscow have made some progress recently. New data from the Bank of Russia shows that in the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50 percent for the first time on record, a notable change given that the dollar comprised more than 90 percent of trade in 2014. Navigating A New Reality: In the energy sphere, Russia has displaced Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest oil supplier and Gazprom — Russia’s massive gas company — plans to more than triple gas deliveries to China through its new pipelines, amounting to nearly half of current Chinese demand. Russia is also looking to capitalize off of the U.S.- China trade war by increasing its exports of food and minerals at the expense of the United States and other Western nations. Russia’s political appeal has grown as Beijing finds itself facing new global pressure: Its signature foreign policy project, the Belt and Road Initiative, has suffered setbacks due to concerns in host countries over mounting debts; the pandemic that first appeared in the central Chinese city of Wuhan has hurt Beijing’s credibility; and Western nations have begun to push back against Chinese tech and political policies. In the face of this pressure, China has moved to hold Russia up as a steadfast partner. During China’s annual legislative meeting in May, Foreign Minister Wang Yi hailed Russia, saying that it supported Beijing and that both countries would stand “shoulder to shoulder” against U.S. efforts to hold Beijing responsible for the pandemic’s consequences. An Uncertain Future: But the growing ties between China and Russia also mask tensions under the surface. While Moscow is keen to benefit from the financial opportunities opened up in China, it is also wary about becoming too dependent on China, both economically and politically. “I don’t think you can call this an alliance,” said Maslov. “Right now, Russian and Chinese interests coincide, but there are lots of areas that could create problems and spoil cooperation.” Projects like the polymer plant in Amur are being heralded by both sides, but past initiatives, such as a water-bottling plant on Lake Baikal and logging projects in the Siberian forests, have faced protests in Russia. The initial stages of the pandemic were also a source of friction, with Russia shutting down its nearly 4,200-kilometer border with China and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin enacting a series of controversial policies targeting the Chinese community, leading to a rare rebuke from the Chinese Embassy in Moscow, which complained directly to the Kremlin. Similarly, Valery Mitko, a 78-year-old retired scientist, was detained in June on charges of passing Russian submarine-detection technology secrets to China. Mitko denies the charges, but the case highlights the suspicions that still characterize the two countries’ relations. “The trust in the top leadership — between Putin and [Chinese President Xi Jinping] — is very solid, but when you work your way down, you can see the problems,” said Zhang. “Overall, things have become more pragmatic and realistic. Neither side expects unconditional support from the other on every issue,” he concluded. “The model of cooperation has changed this year,” Aleksei Maslov, director of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RFE/RL. “China feels that its position in the world is not as stable as before. This has led to them changing their mind towards Russia and becoming more cooperative.”
loganair: No quick bounce back: Russia’s real GDP to recover in mid-2022 but ruble to remain strong, Economy Ministry says: Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has released a fresh forecast for 2019-2022. The ministry said there will be no V-shaped recovery: after a five percent plunge in 2020, real GDP will only recover starting in mid-2022. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a GDP growth of 2.8% in 2021 and three percent in 2022. The Urals price remains below the base budget price of $42, at which point the Russian budget breaks even. Urals will average $31.1 per barrel this year, rising to $35.4 in 2021. Only in 2022 will it return to the breakeven price of $42.2 when Russia Inc. goes back into profit. That means the Ministry of Finance will rely on the National Welfare Fund (NWF) to top up budget spending until 2023. Currently there are some nine trillion rubles ($130bn) of liquid assets in the NWF. With an estimated three-trillion-ruble shortfall in budget revenues forecast for this year, there is therefore enough in the NWF to cover at least another three years of deficits. The ministry also says the ruble will remain relatively strong over the period. The ruble was trading at an average rate of 64.7 rubles to the dollar in 2019 before the start of the oil price shock and the corona crisis, but it sank to a low of 80 rubles amid the panic that followed. It has since recovered to break below 70 rubles again in the first weeks of June. The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the FX RUB/$ rate will average 72.6 rubles to the dollar this year. After that the rate will go to 74.7 in 2021 and 73.3 in 2022. Real incomes will decline 3.5% in 2020 after growing for the first time in six years by an average of 2.9% in 2019. But real wage growth will recover next year, up by 3.1% and two percent in 2021 and 2022 respectively. At the same time, unemployment will remain at an elevated level of 5.7% this year, up from 4.6% in 2019, before diminishing slowly over the next two years to 5.4% and then 4.9%. The fall in oil prices will also put pressure on the balance of payments, but those will remain positive throughout. Russia ran a $65 billion trade surplus in 2019 that will fall to a mere nine billion this year, before recovering very slowly to $10 billion and $27 billion over the next two years. The current account is also expected to halve this year to $45 billion but the Ministry of Economic Development offered no forecast on this number. Opinion is divided amongst analysts on what will happen to the current account. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) said last month that the current account may go negative for the first time in a decade this year after oil prices fell to around $25; more recently, however, analysts at BCS Global Markets predicted that Russia will earn $45 billion this year, after oil prices recovered surprisingly quickly. Among the other predictions, the Ministry of Economic Development estimates that inflation at the end of the year will go from three percent in 2019 to four percent this year and stay at that level for the next two years – at the CBR’s target rate. Amongst the more depressing forecasts is that investment will shrink by 12% this year from the meagre 1.7% growth in 2019, but that it will recover to 4.9% and 5.6% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The low level of inflation is the bugbear in Russia’s otherwise strong macro-fundamentals picture. The level of investment is equivalent to 20.6% of GDP in 2019, 20.1% in 2020, 20.7% in 2021 and 21.1% in 2022 – but economists say that investment needs to rise above 25% per year if Russia is to break out of its current cycle of stagnation.
loganair: Rising oil prices put Russia back in profit: Oil prices have recovered remarkably fast after the OPEC++ deal was agreed, to break above $40 to the barrel again, back into the Kremlin’s “comfort zone,” according to the Finance Ministry. Russia Inc is back in profit with $40 oil, which is how much a barrel needs to cost for the budget to break even. In addition, at $42 per barrel Russia will start accumulating money in its reserve fund, the National Welfare Fund (NWF), as under the so-called budget rule, any oil tax revenues earned from oil prices over $42.4 has to be paid into the NWF. The NWF is there to cover any budget deficit in a crisis, and the Finance Ministry was intending to tap the fund, which held 12 trillion rubles ($174 billion) as of the start of March, to cover an anticipated deficit of 3 trillion rubles this year. The reserves fell to 9 trillion rubles in May after the Ministry of Finance used part of the funds to buy a stake in Sberbank, the biggest bank in Russia, from the CBR – a backdoor route to give the CBR a war chest of cash it could use to defend the ruble if needed – but still leaving at least three years’ worth of cash in the fund to cover a budget deficit. Still a crisis price to pay: That is not to say this crisis is not going to be painful and that the government is not going to have to spend heavily to get Russia Inc back to work. Rosstat reported this week that the basic sectors – a good proxy for GDP – were down by 10 percent year-on-year in April and that the consumer-orientated sectors are all down by at least a third. Last week Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the latest version of the National Plan for Economic Recovery (NPER), which calls for some 5 trillion rubles ($72.8 billion) of spending, or 7.8 percent of GDP. However, much of this money is simply funds that were already committed under the current budget to pay for the 12 national projects and is now going to be re-tasked to stimulate the economy or support the social sector: The bottom line is the 2 percent of GDP budget surplus will disappear and the government will run a 0.5 percent of GDP deficit, plus the Ministry of Finance intends to borrow an extra 2 trillion rubles ($29 billion) from the domestic bond market on top of the 2 trillion rubles already pencilled into the current budget, to help pay for the NPER. Again, that means the reserves will remain a last line of defence, and if Russia continues its rebound there is a good chance that the Kremlin will end this year with even more cash in reserve than it has now. Russian rebound underway, safe haven for investors: The economic rebound in Russia is already visible after the ruble has clawed back much of the ground it lost in the last two months against the dollar. At the same time, if there is a deficit this year the ministry also now has the option of financing it by issuing Russian Ministry of Finance ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bills, which are increasingly seen as a safe haven by international investors thanks to Russia’s rock solid finances. Indeed, over a third of the foreign investors in the OFZ are from the US, where the bonds have proven to be a popular investment with institutional investors like insurance companies and pension funds.
loganair: Russia has been among the best-performing equity markets globally, despite being out of favour with international investors. The RTS Index has climbed above its 2014 pre-Crimea levels, before sanctions were imposed. Although economic growth has disappointed in 2019, earnings and dividend pay-out ratios continue to grow. At a trailing price-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 6x, the Russian market remains extremely cheap. JRS’s underlying portfolio has a 7% dividend yield, according to its longstanding manager, Oleg Biryulyov. He adds that the Russian market is showing signs of becoming less sensitive to movements in energy prices. Manager’s view: Russian stocks were among the strongest performers globally over the first half of the year; when QuotedData’s analyst met Oleg in mid-June, he said that only the relatively illiquid Greek market had performed better. The RTS Index has climbed above its pre-Crimea 2014 levels (before sanctions were imposed), though the Index remains well below its pre-2008 level. Oleg says this strong-returns environment has coincided with a period of relatively low interest from foreign investors. Perhaps reflecting a mix of factors, including tempered interest in Russia post 2014 as international investors largely remained on the side-lines, local Russian investors have become bigger participants in the market. The sanctions created an environment where, as prices fell, many fundamentally sound businesses traded at very high dividend yields. Oleg told us that yield on JRS’s portfolio was approaching 7%. Earnings and pay-out ratios continue to grow. This is a major recurring theme – Oleg says that the team are seeing it in almost all company presentations and reports. Economic growth has disappointed in 2019: As important as oil is to Russia, Oleg says that in terms of the stock market, there has been evidence of equities becoming less sensitive to movements in energy prices. Despite the strong leg-up in oil prices at the start of the year (oil prices have since come down), the price level remains lower than a year ago. Over the same period, the rouble has strengthened against the US dollar (it has appreciated by 5.8% over the year-to-date) and the RTS Index has increased by 21.8%. Political relations between Russia and the West have proven to be relatively benign over recent months, as the spotlight has shifted to the US and China’s trade dispute. This has allowed Russian assets to largely move forward relatively unencumbered by events elsewhere. However, at the macroeconomic level, the performance of the economy has disappointed over recent months. Russia only returned to positive economic growth in 2017 and, after an encouraging 2018, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth might have been expected to register more than the 0.5% recorded over the first quarter of 2019. An increase in the rate of VAT has dampened spending by households, many of which continue to feel the effects from five successive years of declining real incomes. Deflation in food prices (food accounts for around 40% of most household budgets) has provided some respite to consumers, although, as we discuss later, this continues to be unhelpful to the food retail sector. Employment levels have bounced back strongly since the nadir of early 2016, with data reported by the Federal State Statistics Service showing an unemployment rate of 4.5% for July 2019. The figure was a slight drop from mid-2018, which aligns with the view that the economy has lost some momentum. With inflation at 4.6% in July (low against long-term averages but more than 2% higher than last year), the central bank has some room to trim interest rates to try and restore momentum to the economy – a recent 0.25% cut has reduced the interest rate to 7.25%. It seems plausible that rates are likely to be trimmed by at least another 0.25% before the end of the year. That said, it is unlikely that domestic demand-focused companies will drive returns for JRS over the next 12 months; export-oriented businesses are expected to carry the baton. Russia’s food retailing sector, led by Magnit and X5, was one of, if not the fastest-growing in the world a few years back. Over recent times, Oleg says that the sector has been heavily affected by food price deflation and the declines in real incomes. Oleg says that over the past three years it has been a priority of the government to rebuild foreign reserves, which it has succeeded in doing – they are over $500bn – they were under $400bn two years ago. Oleg also added that for the participation of domestic institutional investors to increase markedly, the equity market needs to evolve beyond a predominant bias to energy-related companies and dividend plays. Structural discount persists: Even accounting for the stock market’s strong recent performance, it remains at a structural discount to most peers. Oleg says that high-dividend yields have effectively acted as price floor for many companies; a lot of fundamentally sound companies have traded at high yields. The trailing price/earnings ratio for the Russian market stands at about 5.5x, is a substantial discount to global equities. Oleg says that Russia’s long-standing structural valuation discount, specifically to many emerging markets, reflects factors such as its concentrated exposure to the oil and gas sector. In his view, Russia has not developed enough consumer-focused companies, particularly in the technology sector. That said, Oleg adds that it is harder to explain the relative ‘cheapnessR17; of the commodities companies. We note that Gazprom trades at a trailing price/earnings ratio of 3.1x, as at 9 September 2019. The discounts applied to the commodities companies could reflect concerns over corporate governance standards and political interference. Investment process: The manager seeks to identify attractively-valued companies with sustainable above-average returns. The investment approach for JRS is based on JPMorgan’s emerging market investment process. JPMAM’s global team is responsible for producing a macroeconomic outlook for each country and region. JPMAM also has a large team of researchers that is looking at companies on a sector basis across all regions of emerging markets. Over 20 of the team are involved in research on Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) stocks. They help maintain JPMAM’s comprehensive in-house research database. Oleg, in addition to being the lead manager on JRS, is head of EMEA within JPMAM. Oleg visits Russia at least once a year but he also sees many companies when their representatives come to London. He says that accounting accords with international standards and he thinks that corporate governance has improved, in general. JPMAM analysts submit ideas for Oleg’s approval and he has final say over what goes into the portfolio. The analyst reports review each stock in great detail, looking at a range of measures including return on equity (ROE), which they want to be sustainable – this includes an assessment of how capital intensive the business is; cash generation; the strength of the balance sheet; and how sensitive the company is to inflation. They will also examine the durability of the company’s business, corporate governance standards and ESG (environmental, social and corporate governance) attributes. Oleg wants to hold companies that look attractive across a range of factors. Returns are derived from earnings growth and dividends, which are within the control of the company, and valuation multiple changes and currency moves, which come from changes in market sentiment. JPMAM prefers companies that it believes can benefit from each of these. Stocks are assessed for inclusion within the portfolio on the basis of predicted returns. The predicted return is derived from a predicted exit price/earnings ratio and an internal forecast of returns over the next five years (returns are expected to normalise after year three). Oleg breaks down the portfolio into ‘trading’; stocks that he will move in and out of on valuation grounds, ‘quality’; stocks that will form the core of the portfolio as long-term holdings, and ‘premium’; stocks – the crème de la crème. Turnover works out to about 25% to 35% per annum.
loganair: The rouble rose 0.3 percent for a sixth straight day of gains, shrugging off fears of more Western sanctions and opposition calls for boycotting 2018 presidential elections after leader Alexei Navalny was barred from contesting. But the rouble could firm further if the fear of sanctions persuades Russian businesses to repatriate cash held abroad. President Vladimir Putin has suggested such repatriations could be absolved of profit tax and also allowed to invest in special bonds. Russian local debt yields - currently near two-month lows - could also fall if the Treasury cuts planned issuance in favour of hard currency debt. Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory, a consultancy, predicted “a much more energetic and news-filled six-month period, starting in early February until late July” for Russia. VTB Capital’s Maxim Korovin noted net long rouble positions according to the latest CFTC report, were at the highest levels of 2017. As JRS is denominated in pounds, the strengthening rouble hopefully will lead to an increase in JRS share price. Economic outlook - China seen to slow down, while Brazil extends recovery. Markets have their eye on - Brazil stocks are the most favoured while India is 3rd and Russia 5th.
loganair: How is JRS looking for 2017? Most the indicators are very positive. Russian economy is expected to grow by around 1%. Russia's budget is based on a 2017 oil price of $40 per bbl when the current price is $55. The rouble is expected to strengthen from $61 to $55 by the end of the first quarter of 2017. As. JRS is priced in Sterling one may expect n equivalent 10% or 50p on the JRS share price. Germany imported a record amount of gas from Russia during 2016. Germany say they will be increasing the amount of gas they import from Russia by 5% year on year for the next 10 years to grow it's assets in Germany. . All in all I can see JRS share price reaching 650p to 700p by the end of 2017. Two of the top men in Trump 's administration are pro Russia, therefore I expect an easing of sanctions Rosneft (JRS 4th Largest Investment) a few days ago set up Rosneft Deutschland
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