Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 08:12

Alien spaceships sighted :)

[bondholder] 01/4/2022 08:03

Moex up 1.3 percent

[sotolo] 31/3/2022 21:57

Tiger I am fascinated by your informed Russian views that pop up all over the place, have you/when will you dip a toe in JRS and Poly? but have you as a result entirely given up on Tharisa, without you the board seems near dead even today with big Karo news. And finally What about gold and Centamin whose profits should now begin to recover?

[topvest] 31/3/2022 21:44

The future is very uncertain for JRS that's for sure. For what its worth, my view is that the intrinsic value of the underlying holdings is almost certainly worth a great deal more than the current share price, but whether or not UK investors will be given liquidity to realise the value of their investment is highly uncertain. I would say the medium term range is 0-800p. Its a highly unusual situation and may well encourage a number of speculators to enter the fray as the original investors exit.

[square root] 31/3/2022 21:24

I liked this sensible quote from the lse board.

"If jrs was actually liquidated, it would only happen after a peace deal was signed and sanctions were lifted. There would then be a huge return for anybody who buys jrs shares now".

[loganair] 31/3/2022 20:15

The MOEX Russia Index surged 7.6% to close at 2,703 on Thursday, extending yesterday’s rebound in the exchange’s first full day of trading since Russia’s invasion.

During the session, President Putin signed a decree stating that foreign purchases of LNG can only be made with rubles as of April 1st, a move that Western leaders outright rejected, while Germany already activated an emergency plan that could lead to energy rationing.

Still, Gazprom shares closed 12.3% higher. Financial stocks also ended in the green, driven by VTB (15.4%) and Sberbank (6.8%), while shares from online retailer Ozon (33.2%) surged after the US removed its subsidiary bank from the list of sanctioned institutions.

[smithie6] 31/3/2022 20:12

Index for Russia up 7% today.

Strong up trend in last 5 days.
But yes, Putin is a git.

[popit] 31/3/2022 20:01

“The sanctions that have decimated its NAV aren’t going away soon. Russia has been kicked out of emerging markets indices and that isn’t going to change for a long time either.

“Then there’s the embarrassment factor of being invested in a murderous regime – that can only change if Putin goes. I think the board was wrong to recommend that shareholders vote in favour of continuation and the asset manager will want to disassociate itself from it before too long (as two of its directors already have). Its days are numbered.”

Yes I have read it all and it says exactly the same thing that I said. It says that the manager JP Morgan will not want to continue with this toxic Russian vehicle for much longer, and so it’s days are numbered. They are saying that it will soon be liquidated. The shares will then be worth zero.

[mister md] 31/3/2022 19:35

some reading for that Popit chap:

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 16:58

Pretty sure they are keeping their powder dry for tomorrow!

[pander45] 31/3/2022 16:52

Sorry wrong board.

[square root] 31/3/2022 16:51

Tigerbythetail claims that the Russian stock market has been propped up by the government whereas the Ministry of Finance said it has not yet tapped into the RUB 1 trillion in funds allocated by the National Wealth Fund to buy domestic stocks.

[pander45] 31/3/2022 16:50

The debt will increase and slowly strangle the company. Credit lines will be pulled and run out and it will be forced into high interest options for the longer term instead of the short term. The big bucks (sorry unexchangable roubles) come from the Russian ops. As Russia is toxic and uninvestable this causes a viability problem. Kaz is not enough to keep this going. Ultimate value potentially zilch. zero.

[loganair] 31/3/2022 16:38

The CBR Governor is not using any of her FX to defend the Rouble and overall she is just letting the Rouble do its own thing.

When the Rouble sharply fell, many Russians were taking their Roubles out of their bank accounts and buy USD. The CBR Governor put up interest rates from 6.75% to 20% in one week with the banks following suit with their savings rates, in turn many of these same Russians then bought back Roubles with their USD and put in to savings accounts.

[dil 21] 31/3/2022 16:37

Ask Soros.

[dil 21] 31/3/2022 16:37

No country can rig its exchange rate , they can try to support it but the market always wins.

[topvest] 31/3/2022 16:30

It appears that the Rouble exchange rate might be being rigged by Russia....is this possible? Nothing quite seems to be what it seems!

[bondholder] 31/3/2022 16:28

s... about to hit the fan

[bondholder] 31/3/2022 16:27

Russia will cut off gas supplies to Europe if countries refuse to pay in roubles, Vladimir Putin has warned.The Russian leader said he had signed a decree saying customers must pay in the local currency from tomorrow or their contracts will be terminated. The G7 has previously rejected the demand.In televised comments, Putin said buyers of Russian gas should open accounts in Russian banks, adding that the move was an important step in strengthening the country's ailing economy.European gas prices reversed earlier losses and pushed higher amid fears Europe could abruptly lose its bigger source of natural gas supplies.Putin's doubling down marks a reversal from earlier today, when both Germany and Italy said they'd received assurances from the Russian president that buyers could continue to pay in euros.

[mister md] 31/3/2022 16:15

Meanwhile, MOEX up over 7 % now ...

MOEX Russia Index (IMOEX.ME)
Real Time Price.

2,690.44 +177.41 (+7.06%)


TigerByTheTail is entitled to state his opinion - he is obviously Short all things Russia, going by his posts for a few months now so he must have done exceptionally well so far - however at this point we've seen how quickly those same shares can bounce on any glimmer of hope of a deal ... high risk but potentially very high reward

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 16:05

Human nature, bloody autocorrect

[soleman1] 31/3/2022 16:04

Well not everyone got in here at the bottom its number nature

[tigerbythetail] 31/3/2022 15:42

Bill!
If you put money into JRS you're buying a share of a pool of roubles invested into Russian companies on the Moscow stock exchange. Those roubles can't be converted back into hard currency. And the official exchange rate is rigged and completely artificial. As indeed are prices on the Moscow stock exchange, as the Russian government are actively intervening and propping up share prices.
And Russia itself is facing a massive economic crisis which will naturally affect (wipe out?) the profits of those companies and drag down their share prices.
So any attempt at valuation here is really a stab in the dark.
Certainly, it's beyond reckless to say that the NAV here is "equal to" 450p. It really isn't. JRS is a wild gamble on the outcome of the war and the path that Russia takes in future. If Putin falls, then JRS is wildly undervalued. If he clings on to power, then shares here are likely worth nothing or very little.

[dil 21] 31/3/2022 15:38

Popit has been giving his upbeat opinion on the Polymetal thread too.