Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 14/12/2022 13:00

L2: moved to 2 v 4 / 69p v 70p (rest between 71p and 74p)

FB - Been adding a few more few more this week in JSE and Scorpio Tankers.

O/T - The Baltic Clean Tanker Index is up a further 28(1.4%) today to a new all-time nominal high of 2,011.......(previous record was 1,838 in 2006 / 2,728 inflation adjusted), and an astonishing 832(71%) since the beginning of November.

Against this backdrop its not altogether surprising that leading operator Scorpio Tankers has called an Event today, to further update the market on its Q4 2022 Performance to date and outlook for Q1/2023, via a Conference Call.

During 2008 to 2021, the Index averaged around 600..........demonstrating well, what a long period of ship overcapacity can have on freight/charter rates, when owners order far too many new ships during boom charter rate periods.

With supply/demand now finally back in balance, Clarkson's 9.5% estimated increase in demand for the sector in 2023, from the rerouting of Russian refined oil products away from Europe, and its knock on impact on wider global refined product trade flows, could not have been timed better for investors in the sector.

Particularly, when layered on top of the highly material increase in tonne-mile demand that is now hitting the industry from the closing of aged oil refineries in the USA and Europe, with all new replacement capacity located in the Middle East and China.

Pareto Shipbrokers - 'Also worth noting that Scorpio's 2023 consensus is still below $9/share. We would expect Q1/2023 ALONE to be $6-7/share, so should expect estimate revisions here shortly.

With a YE2023 NAV that could exceed $80/share we continue to see upside' (Conservative call, considering average charter rates are currently around double the average during Q1-Q3/2022, and the majority of the huge tonne-mile impact of the rerouting of Russian refined products from their now ice bound Gulf of Finland Ports still lays ahead).

AIMHO/DYOR

[sea7] 14/12/2022 09:14

footage of the akatara project progress on line - month of november...

[fardels bear] 13/12/2022 17:06

You been buying the shop again, MT?

[tom111] 13/12/2022 16:52

Brent up 4% at $81 and thats before the US inventories tonight

[mount teide] 13/12/2022 16:45

L2: closed 2 v 1 / 67p v 69p (rest between 70p and 72p)

Some decent size mid trades during the day - total volume:1.5m

[fardels bear] 13/12/2022 14:42

But not in the opinion of the biscuit flavouring or Tiny Gerald.

[tom111] 13/12/2022 13:50

Nice to see Dow up over 700 points on better inflation figures just announced oil joining the party up 2% atm Brent knocking $80 imo heading to 90 in the next few weeks imo

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/12/2022 13:08

LOL! Pot, kettle

[fardels bear] 13/12/2022 13:05

It can't be a fact until it's happened. Now stroll on you boring fart

[amaretto1] 13/12/2022 10:01

Oil will be 50 to 60 in 2023 !!! FACT

[moonshot3] 13/12/2022 09:39

To date:# Shares bought back : 16,445,647Cost : £12,573,508 / $14,485,324Average cost / share : 76.45pDry powder (future buy backs):$10.5m# shares before buy back 466,053,616# shares after buy back 450,081,699** 473,730 shares issued under options466,053,616 - 16,445,647 + 473,730 = 450,081,699

[fardels bear] 13/12/2022 09:32

Yer gonna have to do better than that? You think we're THAT wet behind the ears?

[tom111] 12/12/2022 15:18

Oil making a recovery this afternoon in fact up 3% it will be pivotal moment tomorrow with the CPI numbers

[amaretto1] 12/12/2022 14:28

Well done SAVE looks good. Oil mkt starting to price 50 /60 pb 2023 ...Very few oil stocks holding up.

[mount teide] 12/12/2022 09:00

O/T - Savannah Energy - FTSE 250 Xmas Present

Announces 61,280 bopd net acquisition(40% working interest) of Petronas 153,200 bopd
gross South Sudan assets for a headline price of $1.2bn, which after adjustment from the economic effective date, suggests the net price could be circa 50%-70% lower.

The former hedge fund manager running SAVE must have been running his slide rule over Paul Blakeley's deals.

[mount teide] 11/12/2022 18:50

O/T - Viktor Katona, crude analyst at Kpler, a commodity analytics firm, said: “At a time when world markets brace for the impacts of a 2023 recession, shipping stocks might be one of the most resilient means of investment into the market.”


Payday for shipping lines as Russian oil cap comes into force - Times today

'New sanctions will further enrich firms with tankers for hire.

In 1926, the Martinos family of Athens opened an inconspicuous antique shop beneath the Acropolis, about a minute’s walk from Hadrian’s Library. The family name still stands above the shop — which today bursts with Middle Eastern rugs, Persian cushions and neoclassical art — but the grandsons in the dynasty have moved on spectacularly.

Thanasis and Andreas have each managed their own oil tanker companies, making the family one of the wealthiest in Greece. This year has been especially good for the brothers, who have made significant sums shipping Russian oil that others have refused to touch since the invasion of Ukraine. And the fresh round of sanctions last week could make next year still more profitable for them.

Since 5 December, tankers ferrying Russian crude have only been allowed access to western maritime insurance if the oil is sold under $60. The price cap, which Russia said it would not observe, was intended to keep oil flowing without allowing the Kremlin to profit from it. But for those, like the Martinos brothers, who are still willing to ship Russian oil, the sanctions will be a boon.

Prices of freight on most routes have shot up by at least 25 per cent in the past month in anticipation of the new regime, with some doubling, according to European shipping brokers. Viktor Katona, crude analyst at Kpler, a commodity analytics firm, said: “At a time when world markets brace for the impacts of a 2023 recession, shipping stocks might be one of the most resilient means of investment into the market.”

There are many reasons. First, the added red tape and complexity inherent in the new sanctions mean shipping firms face higher costs, which they are passing on with an extra premium on top. Second, they are charging more for the higher risk of their reputations being damaged for carrying sanctioned oil.

Third, compliance is hard, with the risk of high fines — at least £1 million in the UK — if mistakes are made. “These risks are translated into shipping companies asking for more to ferry their cargoes,” said Katona.

The sanctions are also having a big impact on the number of tankers available to be chartered. This is because, as another element in the new rules, it is illegal to import Russian oil into European ports. Instead, ships must take the crude from Russia to Asia. This 5,000-mile trip takes ships out of circulation for 40 days each way.

Data from Refinitiv shows that a record 12.86 million metric tonnes of Russian crude went to India and China in November. The two countries accounted for 94 per cent of all Russian crude exports.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at the shipping journal Lloyd’s List, said: “Because they are shipping more volumes over longer distances, that cuts down the number of tankers that can be chartered at any one time. That reduction in supply will increase freight rates.” Wiese Bockmann added that the recalibration of global shipping routes has pushed freight prices to more than $100,000 a day.

Traders, who buy and sell the oil and charter the ships from the likes of the Martinos family, are also set to cash in from the new sanctions. They will be buying Russian oil at $60 per barrel, but can sell it for however much they want. Currently, the market price for benchmark brent crude is about $77 a barrel.

“Russian crude will still get into European ports,” said one Greek shipping insider. “The only thing that will change is how it gets to those ports. It will not be directly imported; instead, it will go through several different transfers between ships, be blended with a whole variety of other oils to change the documentation, and then be imported as another blend entirely.”

The shipper said the only way to enforce the sanctions so that no Russian oil could make its way to European ports would be the use of electronic documentation that could trace cargo back to its origin. “Until then, it will have no effect,” he said.

Thanasis Martinos, managing director of Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, said the company was eager to fill the gaps created from the shortage of Russian oil and that increasing uncertainty and instability was harmful to all businesses. The company also said: “EMM is fully respecting and complies with EU and USA regulations and sanctions. EMM wishes that the hostilities and the terrible consequences to human lives come to an end.'

In anticipation of the EU ban on the Russian tanker imports triggering a major increase in the demand for shipping to service much longer voyage lengths, posted 2 months ago that I'd increased my shipping sector investment level and weightings to 50%/50% - Dry Bulk/Product. Last week increased it further resulting in a 45%/55% weighting.

While most Russian crude oil that can be has been rerouted, most refined products (estimated at 750,000 bbls/day) is still to be rerouted prior to the Feb 3rd 2022 deadline.

What a difference a month makes.....the re-routing of oil product tankers from the political fall out of the Russia/Ukraine War is now having a major impact on charter rates, due to the huge increase in shipping capacity required to service the re-routing of Russian oil, on a sector that was already operating with a very tight supply/demand dynamic.

If Clarkson's estimate of a 9.5% increase in product tanker shipping demand for 2023 from the rerouting of Russian oil products and its knock on effect to existing trade routes is correct, that is equivalent to a shipping capacity shortfall of over 550 ships.

Long Range (LR2) Product Tanker Rates - (750,000 bbl capacity)
Middle East to Far East

$13,500/day - Jan Average
$27,500/day - Nov Average
$71,500/day - 1st Dec
$73,500/day - 8th Dec

Medium Range (MR) Product Tanker Rates - (500,000 bbl capacity)
US Gulf Coast to UK/Europe

$12,500/day - Jan Average
$33,500/day - Nov Average
$52,750/day - 1st Dec
$55,250/day - 8th Dec

[mount teide] 11/12/2022 10:45

O/T - With Product tanker charter rates up 53% since November 1st and now three times the average of the sector's oversupplied recessionary years between 2008 and 2021......Q4 has the potential to be the highest earning quarter(in nominal terms) in 15 years.

Q4/2022 - "You're going to need a bigger chart!"



Ps Bloomberg got the left axis of the chart wrong - it should read $Billions! Scorpio earned $490m in Q3/22

[thegreatgeraldo] 10/12/2022 13:55

unt Teide9 Dec '22 - 17:54 - 11799 of 11799
0 1 0
US Shale Oil Industry's costs have have rocketed over the last 18 months to the extent that many are barely turning a profit.

Eagle Ford, one of the biggest shale plays in the country has seen its breakeven surge 33% from $45.62/bbl to $60.54 in 18 months. While the Bakkan's break-even increased by 38% from $46.85/bbl to $64.48

....A large number of the shale plays are quite gassy... I've heard the gas price over there has ticked up a tad this year

[mount teide] 09/12/2022 17:54

US Shale Oil Industry's costs have have rocketed over the last 18 months to the extent that many are barely turning a profit.

Eagle Ford, one of the biggest shale plays in the country has seen its breakeven surge 33% from $45.62/bbl to $60.54 in 18 months. While the Bakkan's break-even increased by 38% from $46.85/bbl to $64.48

Biden wanted to refill th Strategic Reserve at under $70/bbl - with US produced crude - good luck with that !



Source: Enverus & J P Morgan

[the_gold_mine] 08/12/2022 20:15

Almost 4 months since Montara was shutdown to effect tank repairs, surely must be getting close to re-start time?

12th August: Montara shutdown for repairs after an additional internal defect is found in water ballast tank 4S, on top of the original defect in tank 2C.

12th September : NOPSEMA issue directive to Jadestone to provide weekly updates and require an independent reviewer to undertake a gap recognition review, with the report to be considered by NOPSEMA prior to the restart of production.

October: DNV nominated as independent reviewer to undertake gap recognition review

17th November : Defects in tank 2C and water ballast tank 4S reported as repaired. Baseline survey on the FPSO’s remaining tanks on-going.

I'm wondering if Santa has a present in store for Jadestone investors this Christmas or if we're going to be put on the naughty list...

[amaretto1] 08/12/2022 09:17

Apart from GS and gang who are predicting 100 plus oil ...But selling at the same time.

[amaretto1] 08/12/2022 09:16

Oil stocks all preparing for 50 /60 2023 OP estimate.

[amaretto1] 08/12/2022 09:14

U got Container utility data ? Drop in containers.... drop in useage of oil to produce goods ...Global slow down. Oil useage figures ? Just a side note ... with your constant ramping of oil tanker fleet utilisation.