Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rik shaw] 22/11/2022 07:49

He's sold less than 1% of his holding so it may be a big number to you but to him it's some cash for the weekend.

[croasdalelfc] 22/11/2022 07:49

Hope so as I have a few quid to buy - it's a shame there is a buyback propping up the price

[ashkv] 22/11/2022 07:46

Massive director sell RNS this morning David Neuhauser - probably has a view that Montara never resuming production and protecting his capital. This is indeed very ominous...


£ 0.77 and 125,000 ordinary shares on 17 Nov 2022

£ 0.765416 and 109,073 ordinary shares on 18 Nov 2022

[ashkv] 22/11/2022 07:45

First of many sales I would conjecture - JSE damn is bursting... into the 50s today!!!

[tom111] 22/11/2022 07:45

May be massive to you but not to him lol.As for Montara tosh

[croasdalelfc] 22/11/2022 07:44

Ashkv - your massive is others tiny ... such is life ;)

[croasdalelfc] 22/11/2022 07:43

Or NED sells 0.7% of shares to pay for... probably tax

[otemple3] 22/11/2022 07:43

If he thought that he probably wouldn't be holding on to the other £23m holding

[ashkv] 22/11/2022 07:34

Massive director sell RNS this morning David Neuhauser - probably has a view that Montara never resuming production and protecting his capital. This is indeed very ominous...


£ 0.77 and 125,000 ordinary shares on 17 Nov 2022

£ 0.765416 and 109,073 ordinary shares on 18 Nov 2022

[croasdalelfc] 22/11/2022 07:21

Valaris 107 on the move , Stag results due anyday

[moonshot3] 21/11/2022 09:25

Ok, thanks Ian and understood. Well done for juggling your full time job and keeping track of stuff on these boards!

[croasdalelfc] 21/11/2022 07:48

No I sold out 6 months ago - only a small position - just watching - it's starting to get interesting again. I don't like telegram either too many posts to read - I have a full time job

[moonshot3] 18/11/2022 19:56

O/T:Apologies for going OT, Ian, but just wondering whether you are a ZPHR investor at the moment?I haven't seen you post recently on the ZPHR board - just curious!

[mount teide] 18/11/2022 18:34

Vietnam - Nam Du and U Minh - nat gas production evacuated via pipeline to onshore fertiliser plant and condensate production stored on FPSO and exported by transfer to Shuttle Tanker.

Nam Du / U Minh Development Concept

'Jadestone plans to jointly develop the Nam Du and U Minh gas fields. The proposed development plan involves two unmanned wellhead platforms, one located at each field, with produced fluids delivered to a central floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel at Nam Du.

Processed gas from Nam Du and U Minh would be exported via the nearby existing 18 inch pipeline owned by Petrovietnam that transports gas from the PM-03-CAA Block to the Ca Mau power and industrial complex in southern Vietnam.

Condensate would be exported by shuttle tanker. Gas production from the PM-03-CAA Block is currently in decline, and with no additional gas resource available, will result in sufficient pipeline ullage that Jadestone intends to utilise.'

[jeff114] 18/11/2022 17:33

Indeed they mention it on their website

[jeff114] 18/11/2022 17:29

Are you sure they need that fpso? I thought they could use existing infrastructure from a near exhausted field?

[mount teide] 18/11/2022 16:28

brad - I am relaxed about development of the Vietnam assets staying on the back burner for a year or two longer, unless a spectacular deal can be agreed with the Vietnamese.

As the longest led item is an FPSO, and when considering that shipyards will be operating close to capacity through to 2025, it carries significant execution risk to secure a slot and complete the tanker conversion to smoothly coincide with all the other marine civil engineering work, without experiencing potentially highly expensive timing issues.

Ideally, we should find a partner/s to spread the Vietnam execution risk - and keep spending the cash we are generating on more NWS and Montara type bolt on acquisitions with immediate FCF generation. The Vietnam project could see up to $200m of cash sunk into it before a Nickel of FCF is generated.

AIMHO/DYOR

[jeff114] 18/11/2022 15:56

Thx! And in the share buybacks for 2 years and the value could be even much higher!

[bradvert] 18/11/2022 15:42

MT - 13.5K looks reasonable, I took the 12k boepd figure from a composite area graph, showing JSE's projected total five year production. The graph was high level and low in detail, so it required a ruler to estimate, and I was trying to be conservative!The logic of a deal is compelling from the Vietnamese side, so hopefully it will happen relatively soon, and will be a win-win for both parties.

[mount teide] 18/11/2022 15:28

brad - I like to leave some potential for upside revision!

As in all good deals - you have to leave something in there for the other side.

Update to a post made in April 22:

Replaced Maari with the North West Shelf assets.

'Recently laid out in an earlier post how its possible to make a very realistic case through a combination of organic growth and M&A activity for JSE to lift production to circa 65,000 boepd over a 3 year timeframe.

Assuming production post recommencement of Montara of 20,000 boepd is maintained over the next 2 years through the expected re-investment programme of infill wells and well work-overs.

Then, the following business development plan has the potential to raise production up to 52,500 to 65,000 boepd by between the end of 2024 and summer 2025:

7,500 - 10,000 bopd/day - further NWS Acquisition/s - December 2022
6,500 boepd - Lemang Field (@$6.50/mmcf - $38/boe) - Jan 2024
13,500 boepd - Minh/Nam Du Fields (circa $8.50/mmcf - $50/boe) - Dec 2024 / Summer 2025
15,000 bopd - 7,500 bopd/day of acquisitions in 2023 and 2024 (similar to PM/Montara/NWS)

Free Cash Generation at 65,000 boepd
Assumptions:
$5 - Blended premium/bbl
$25 - OPEX/bbl
$8 - OPEX/boe of Nat Gas
$200m - CAPEX
$50m - General Admin Exp
45% - Blended Tax Rate

FCF of $519m/£400m - £0.85/share
@ $75 Brent and an average of $8.00/mmcf($48/boe)for the Nat Gas

Giving a Business Valuation of(before taking into account the cash on deposit which could well be worth over £1.00 a share by end of 2024, depending on how much is used for the acquisitions) :

£2.55/share - @ 3 times FCF
£4.25/share - @ 5 times FCF

FCF of $744m/£572m - £1.23p/share
@ $100 Brent and an average of $8.00/mmcf($48/boe)for the Nat Gas

Giving a Business Valuation of:
£3.69/share - @ 3 times FCF
£6.15/share - @ 5 times FCF

AIMHO/DYOR

[royalalbert] 18/11/2022 15:04

Really? but the SPR is still being drained.

[jeff114] 18/11/2022 14:45

Production moving away from China will only increase Vietnams demand for gas, and it's main customer is supposed to be a fertilizer plant, which gas supplier needs to be replaced, so also a product in high demand. I read 10k boe for the Vietnam gas fields

[bradvert] 18/11/2022 14:38

MT - Yes 20k bopd by summer 2023 looks plausible, but let's not forget the two Vietnam fields. The Maari RNS on Oct 27 said discussions were making progress. While production might take a couple of years to start, I'd anticipate an immediate effect on valuation when the projects were greenlit.In the Feb 2020 Capital Market day presentation, JSE's five year outlook showed Vietnam growing to around 12k boepd, then plateauing for a while.. (slide 24 of the deck) Of course the actual output will depend on the terms agreed, and the relative evolution of the oil/gas markets since that estimate, but it is likely to be material!