Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[amaretto1] 26/11/2022 09:43

Enlighten me ?

[here and there] 26/11/2022 09:07

A question for you Jadestone share holders.

About $15m of by backs so far, $10m left in the kitty. So far, it has supported the share price well. Hopefully, they will be back in production again but as yet, not time lines have been offered.

The question is , who is selling? Can't see any TR1s around

[tom111] 26/11/2022 08:16

Pretty obvious to me

[amaretto1] 25/11/2022 19:28

Where have all these oil tankers gone ? U telling us all, they are being used to ship Russian oil to India and China ?? What exactly are u saying ?

[amaretto1] 25/11/2022 19:22

We had a exact copy of yourself on the ARB thread Concerning Crypto....Myself and others raised serious points ....And regarded GOLD a far safer bet ..We were all berated....... They have all disappeared.... My short oil from 125 was ridiculed at the time .... My target oil for 2023 remains 50 to 60 !!!

[amaretto1] 25/11/2022 19:17

Trouble with you constantly knocking my posts ..... the fact stands !!I'm continuously right .... and you are continuously not !!My calls are right .....

[mount teide] 25/11/2022 18:57

Such is the lack of availability of crude oil tankers before next week's EU ban on Russian crude oil exports has even started, S&P Global Platts reported today, that some product tanker owners, instead of returning their ships in ballast to Europe/Russia to load another cargo, were taking crude oil spot market charters, available since there were no crude oil tankers to load them, attracted by the huge $160,000/day charter rates on offer. At that charter rate, a ship with a 25 year commercial life would generate enough cash to repay its purchase price in less than 2 years.

The effect of which has been to tighten even further the product tanker market. Where average LR2 rates this week have surged to $80-90k/day for carrying diesel and distillates.

LR2 spot market charter rates were circa $14k/day as recent as Q1/2022.

[mount teide] 25/11/2022 18:40

11% - not to a shipping industry experiencing a near instantaneous circa 10% structural step change in demand, as will happen when the EU ban on the importation of Russian crude and refined products is implemented.

The industry forecasts there is insufficient shipping to carry between 1-2m boep/d of Russian crude and refined products post the EU ban.

[11_percent] 25/11/2022 16:13

Interesting idea.......the price of crude does not matter.

So, regardless of a recession, or whether oil is priced at $70 to $120/bbl, they know, as occurred between 2003 to 2008, they will be guaranteed very high rates for their services for years.

[royalalbert] 25/11/2022 13:41

Might be a great time for MV to come back online.

[mount teide] 25/11/2022 13:22

L2: 3 v 3 / 70p v 72p (rest between 73p and 77p)

[mount teide] 25/11/2022 13:13

11% - lol.....I have him on filter so didn't see that very poorly researched post.

The reason most European and US ports and inland storage facilities are full of empty containers is because the unprecedented boom period the sector enjoyed during lockdown has passed. With demand for container freight shipping back to its pre Covid level, the huge volume of new containers manufactured during the period to meet the boom time demand are now surplus to requirements. So, why ship them back from Europe and the US to SE Asia/China until they are needed?

Predictably, the record freight rates of the period which generated all time record FCF for the sector, triggered a tsunami of newbuilding orders, which along with LNG carriers now fill the order-books of shipyards out to 2025/6.

Which means a glut of new mega containerships entering the market over the next few years which will have an entirely predictable impact on shipping freight rates. It's why the valuation of most of the large container shipping companies have more than halved over the last year or so, with further falls almost inevitable.

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
hTTps://fbx.freightos.com

Container freight rates have dropped by circa 73% in a little over a year, and are now closing in on their long term average, where a 40ft container can be shipped 12,000 miles by sea from China to Felixstowe for around $3,000, and retuned for circa $400(yes, you read that right - since there is no demand, with over 90% of freight containers returned 'filled' with nothing but fresh air!).

However, when the pendulum swings it never stops at the long term mid point, it always overshoots(on the up and downside) before coming to rest at its long term average. So, with a deteriorating ship supply versus demand dynamic over the next 2-3 years for the sector, I would expect container freight rates to continue falling below the long term average and probably stay in a sideways channel below that long term average for at least 2-3 years.

The future challenge the containership industry faces is the exact reverse of that of the oil and product tanker shipping sector........where the supply/demand dynamic will very soon experience an unprecedented circa 10% INCREASE in demand for its services for an industry where the supply/demand dynamic was broadly in balance, and used to accommodating 2% a year growth.

The consensus best case scenario of a reduction in Russian crude and refined oil product exports post the implementation of the EU ban is 1-2m boep/d. Which, even in the event of a major slowdown in the global economy next year, is still likely to make an already tight market for crude oil, and a stretched to near breaking point diesel and distillates market remain at a very strained level.

AIMHO/DYOR

[11_percent] 25/11/2022 11:48

amaretto124 Nov '22 - 14:17 - 11671 of 11677
0 1 1
U r in denial of a global recession !!
Let me state another fact ..
All container storage facilities in UK are full ...
In simple speak ... the world is awash with empty or redundant containers.
Will be a good time to buy them if your building a house out of them !!

=====================

amer,

What we are talking about is crude and distillates......and the ships which carry them.

Your post is talking about goods which are transported in containers......ie, not oil.

[croasdalelfc] 24/11/2022 18:39

hTTps://twitter.com/livermoreops/status/1595831166690639872?s=46&t=nRF5Cp6BwrkV7mNYSVg1qQ

[dcarn] 24/11/2022 17:40

Straight from the man himself with regards to the 'massive' sells.

David Neuhauser
@LivermoreOps
·
13m
@JadestoneEnergy
is
@LivermoreOps
largest holding and we continue to seek to unlock its strong potential and deep value. Recent transactions are fund dynamics only and should not be interpreted in any other way. #energy #OOTT #commodities $JSE

https://twitter.com/LivermoreOps/status/1595831166690639872?s=20&t=QaPRpYFCuQbE1aGrGEFgAg

[sea7] 24/11/2022 15:05

htTps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Russian-Crude-Will-Keep-Flowing-To-India-Despite-US-Pressure.html

The G-7 plans are likely to send oil prices higher (despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming the opposite) and reduce tanker availability, both of which will threaten India’s energy security and hurt its economy as India is the third-largest consumer and importer of oil worldwide.

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 14:54

The reason crude and product tanker owner's are finding it difficult to keep calm about the incredible good fortune coming their way from the impact of the EU's ban on Russian crude and refined oil products, is because they know, recession or not, the shipping capacity is not available to carry out the massive increase in demand (conservatively estimated by Clarkson's as close to 10%).

And all the main shipyards have full order books through to 2025/25 with containerships and LNG carriers.

So, regardless of a recession, or whether oil is priced at $70 to $120/bbl, they know, as occurred between 2003 to 2008, they will be guaranteed very high rates for their services for years.

Even if VLCC/LR2 ship charter rates were to increase from today's eyewatering by historic standards $80k-$100k to $250k/day, they would still only represent around 2% of the value of a VLCC oil cargo, taken by ship from the US to Europe.

[sea7] 24/11/2022 14:33

dated 13th Nov..


This week, the Biden Administration released its last batch of oil from the SPR reserve, ending one of the most significant artificial increases in commercial fuel supplies. Some of this oil will not reach the market until late November to December after the last extension, but the bulk of the release is effectively over.

htTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4557117-uso-the-future-of-oil-as-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-release-nears-end

[amaretto1] 24/11/2022 14:17

U r in denial of a global recession !!Let me state another fact ..All container storage facilities in UK are full ...In simple speak ... the world is awash with empty or redundant containers. Will be a good time to buy them if your building a house out of them !!

[sea7] 24/11/2022 14:14

and if china and india wish to boost oil imports from russia, then they will need more ships.

[mount teide] 24/11/2022 14:09

Canary in the Coal Mine signals for turmoil in the global oil markets in 2023 - pointing to higher prices and very high oil transportation freight costs.

The Baltic Clean and Dirty Tanker Indexes are a barometer on the future cost of shipping crude and refined oil products respectively around the world.

YTD Performance
+266% - Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
+214% - Baltic Clean Tanker Index
-16% - S&P 500

Performance Since the 2020 COVID Low
+492% - Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
+468% - Baltic Clean Tanker Index
+74% - S&P 500


Baltic Clean Tanker Index surged by a further 62(3.76%) yesterday. It's up 224 (22.9%) in a week and by 524 (45.1%) since 3rd November.

The 524 point rise in just 15 trading days is remarkable, as its the equivalent of ADDING the AVERAGE PRICE OF THE INDEX between 2012 and 2022, onto a figure which is already nearly twice the average price for that period.

The product tanker sector this year is demonstrating all the hallmarks of its first cyclical boom since 2003-2008. Its up 1,288 (214%) YTD, and averaging nearly twice the average figure over the last 14 years.

Whatever adjustments have been made to the route weightings in the Index by the Baltic Exchange, the performance this month suggests they're now capturing the huge surge in charter rates the leading companies have been telling the market about during the last 2-3 months.

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (to ship crude) is up even greater largely because of preparations for the EU's ban on Russian crude exports commencing on Dec 5th. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (to ship diesel and distillates) took off in November in preparation for the EU's banning of Russian refined oil products which follows on 3rd Feb 2023.

One interesting development in the product carrier sector suggesting it's 'day' in the sun, like between 2003 and 2008, has possibly years to run, is the trend in the cost of a newbuilding versus a one year old ship.

LR2 Class - 2021
$61.0m - Newbuilding Cost
$57.5m - One Year old market value

LR2 Class - 2022
$64.0m - Newbuilding Cost
$74.5m - One Year old market value

Since, in the current market it would take 2-3 years from placing an order today to having the ship available for commercial operation, such is the market confidence in the strength of future demand for ships in the sector, the price of a one year old ship is now $10.5m higher than the newbuilding price. This would only occur if the market had a strong expectation of a continuation of this period of high rates for a significant period of time.

This was one of a number of factors behind increasing my holding in Scorpio recently.
My Dry Bulk v Product Tanker investment weighting is now 50%/50%. With 85% in Star Bulk and Scorpio.



AIMHO/DYOR

[sea7] 24/11/2022 14:01

The IEA said last month...

Supply growth is set to “slow markedly” in 2023, although still reach a record of 100.6 million barrels a day. World oil demand is forecast to average 101.3 million barrels a day next year, the IEA said.