Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 17/11/2022 17:56

Not so the low guidance being the more likely outcome implies that no restart for Montara in 2022!

Surprised JSE didn't mention cash in hand - must be running quite low given the RNS detailing upcoming liftings (also rather shady of JSE not to mention their net % of the liftings as if I didn't know better reading the RNS would have me believing that JSE are 100% beneficiaries of the liftings)...

I will only buy sub 65p - as otherwise risk reward is not adequate... Buy SQZ and HBR - even with windfall taxes they are literally going for free. SQZ nearly 70% cash at current share price...

bradvert
17 Nov '22 - 11:26 - 11532 of 11541
0 6 0
“While the Company remains unable to advise on a restart date for Montara, based on the tank inspection activity to date it reaffirms an intent to remain

within the lower end of the production guidance range”


A close reading of this sentence surely implies they expect production to resume this side of the year end, as otherwise Montara or tank inspections would not be relevant to final y/e production?


At the same time I understand why they can’t explicitly give a resumption date as its not in their gift, it’s down to DNV then NOPSEMA.

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 17:40

Not mentioned in the Government Autumn Statement - Liam Halligan on GB News has just found buried in the accompanying notes, there is going to be a 23% fuel duty increase in March 2023. Equivalent to 12p a litre INCREASE on a litre of Petrol and Diesel!

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 17:37

Stifel were on the BID so they likely picked them up.

[sea7] 17/11/2022 17:07

there were a couple of 100k share sales at 77p towards the end of the day, so it would seem that MM on 77p was soaking those up, as the price held until close

[tom111] 17/11/2022 16:34

After all next year is just round the corner!Time has gone so quickly this year must be my age.

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 16:23

L2: 2 v 1 / 77p v 78p (rest between 80p and 85p)

Should it drop below 77p - after today's update, suspect i'll be far from alone among those who understand the investment case risk/reward who will be adding to their positions.

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 16:01

75% Corporation Tax on UK O&G Industry - extended to March 2028 - Usury!

Never thought I would live to see the day a Conservative Government (okay, in name only!), Nationalised a private sector industry's profits and left shareholders to swallow the losses!

UK Hikes Windfall Taxes On Oil And Gas To 35% - Oilprice.com today

'The UK is raising the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas operators in the North Sea while also expanding the tax to include low-cost electricity generators in the Autumn Statement of the UK’s budget unveiled by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, on Thursday.

The UK has had a windfall tax on oil and gas firms operating in the North Sea since May, when the current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, then Boris Johnson’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced a temporary 25% Energy Profits Levy for oil and gas companies, reflecting their extraordinary profits as oil and gas prices surged.

Commenting on the new budget measures, Sunak said today that “Today’s Autumn Statement delivers the long-term stability this country needs.”

“The Autumn Statement sets out reforms to ensure businesses in the energy sector who are making extraordinary profits contribute more,” the UK government said.

Thus, the UK is raising the Energy Profits Levy by 10 percentage points to 35% from January 1, 2023, and is extending it to the end of March 2028, from December 31, 2025, as originally planned when the levy was 25%.

The government expects the Energy Profits Levy to raise over £40 billion by 2027-28.

The hike in the levy lifts total oil and gas taxation in the UK to a grand total of 75%, Bloomberg’s energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas noted.

The government is also introducing a new temporary 45% Electricity Generator Levy that will be applied to the extraordinary returns being made by electricity generators. The levy will be introduced from January 1, 2023, and is then forecast to raise around £14.2 billion over the forecast period (2022- 2028). The levy will be applied to groups generating electricity from nuclear, renewable, and biomass sources “who are benefitting from a significant increase in the price received for their output without a corresponding increase in the costs of generation.”

Oil and gas firms and power producers have warned the government for weeks that what was then rumored hikes in windfall taxes would undermine investment in the UK energy system.

“Imposing sudden extra taxes will make it even harder for these companies to invest in UK energy production – both the gas and oil we need today, and the wind, hydrogen and other low-carbon energies we need to reach net zero by 2050,” leading industry group Offshore Energies UK said earlier this month.

Linda Cook, CEO at the leading independent oil and gas producer in the North Sea, Harbour Energy, wrote an open letter to the Chancellor earlier this week, saying that “Should the chancellor levy UK oil and gas companies further — a second time in six months — he risks driving investment out of the UK altogether.” '

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 15:00

Stag - after the weather and other delays experienced drilling the first infill well on the field, good to hear these two wells were drilled without incident, in a time not too dissimilar to what it took to drill that one infill well three years ago.

[sea7] 17/11/2022 14:33

from 2021 annual report..ops review..

In Q3 2022, the 50H and 51H infill development wells are scheduled to be drilled. These development wells are anticipated to complete and come onstream in Q4 2022, and are expected to add around 1,000 bbls/d to current production levels.

....

todays rns...

At the Stag field, the two infill wells Stag-50H and 51H have been drilled successfully and initial results from well data are in line with pre-drill expectations.

[sea7] 17/11/2022 13:55

malcy blog today....

Nothing much new here from Jadestone but as ever a detailed and helpful analysis of the situation at Montara which is clearly going the distance but will make for a good 2023. Elsewhere the numbers are good with high volumes ensuring that the year finishes as well as possible under the circumstances. I’m looking forward to some activity on the M&A front…

[bradvert] 17/11/2022 11:26

"While the Company remains unable to advise on a restart date for Montara, based on the tank inspection activity to date it reaffirms an intent to remainwithin the lower end of the production guidance range"A close reading of this sentence surely implies they expect production to resume this side of the year end, as otherwise Montara or tank inspections would not be relevant to final y/e production?At the same time I understand why they can't explicitly give a resumption date as its not in their gift, it's down to DNV then NOPSEMA.

[sea7] 17/11/2022 10:47

a good summary MT

that sounds like a sensible move to change to DNV

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 10:13

Would not be surprised if Paul Blakley changes the Classification Society under which the Montara Venture is operated over to DNV following their involvement as Auditor.

It would be a smart move in many respects.....not least by demonstrating to NOPSEMA and the likes of the clueless idiots at Greenpeace, that the safe operation and ongoing maintenance of the FPSO is under the reassuring control of one of the World's leading Classification Societies.

[mount teide] 17/11/2022 09:58

Montara - by appointing a leading Classification Society as Auditor, Paul Blakeley is demonstrating to both NOPSEMA and the wider market that he is dealing with the issues in a highly professional way.

DNV provide independent Classification Services to nearly 20% of the global shipping fleet, including many of the leading shipowners across the three main shipping sectors. As mentioned previously, ship owners of poorly maintained tonnage keep well clear of the likes of DNV and Lloyd's Register when looking for Classification Services.

2022 production at the lower end of the range suggests H2 production of circa 7,250 bopd. Which by implication, suggests little if any contribution from Montara in H2 and, that although progress with the tank inspection, repairs and remediation work is progressing satisfactory, it's at a pace consistent with the limitations of carrying this work out in situ, rather than a fully manned and equipped shipyard.

Montara tank photos - the internal condition of the 4S Ballast Tank is in a very good overall condition - as with Cargo tank 2C, its much better than I was expecting.

What I take from today's update is that when the work on Montara is complete, NOPSEMA, Jadestone shareholders and the wider market can have a very high confidence in the structural condition of the FPSO and its production machinery. And, that the revised inspection and maintenance plan formulated with the DNV surveyor, will be designed to not only meet future Classification Society requirements but, to ensure safe operation of the FPSO through to at least the end of its expected commercial life in 2032.

AIMHO/DYOR

Good to hear the Stag heavy sweet crude premiums have bounced back very strongly following the summer weakness

[fardels bear] 17/11/2022 08:35

Sorry eight oh two.

[fardels bear] 17/11/2022 08:35

Strange no trades being reported since five past eight.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 17/11/2022 08:15

Maybe not but dry dock is looking increasingly unlikely so all is well.

[sea7] 17/11/2022 08:05

Not having a restart date is no change to the position since the FPSO was shutdown- the company did talk of "towards the end of the year" as one scenario - so I think the market is largely pricing in for the end of the year at present.

there will no doubt be some sellers and weakness in the price today, as some may have positioned for a short term trade against a restart rns catalyst.

[fardels bear] 17/11/2022 07:56

Good news then but is it as good as the market was pricing in?

[poacher45] 17/11/2022 07:53

If you were a market maker for Jadestone surely you would expect a warning that good news was on the way you would not want to be caught short.

[thommie] 17/11/2022 07:43

Good sensing yesterday for an rns today Mt :) it again shows that this game isnt fair, as the MM seem to have infos before PIs...

[moonshot3] 16/11/2022 15:48

Thanks for feedback Alvar. I will take a look back at the presentation. Sometimes it feels like we have to fill in the blanks a bit with less than perfect information!

[alvarodrs] 16/11/2022 14:23

Moonshot3 - Answers to the NWS 2023 earnings

-650kbbls lifting (don't count prod, they counted only the amount that will be sold)

-US$100/bbl realised! price (incl premiums)

-10% royalty (the CWLH fields pay a 10% royalty to the Western Australia government – note we have applied this conservatively with no deductions. In reality, there will be allowable deductions like depreciation which could reduce the absolute royalty payment).

-Opex of US$17m, or US$25/bbl – this was the figure used on slide 7 of the acquisition presentation