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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jadestone Energy Plc LSE:JSE London Ordinary Share GB00BLR71299 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  6.00 7.5% 86.00 84.00 87.00 86.50 79.30 80.00 1,618,538 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 159.4 -41.9 -9.5 - 400

Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 11576 to 11599 of 12425 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  473  472  471  470  469  468  467  466  465  464  463  462  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
18/11/2022
18:34
Vietnam - Nam Du and U Minh - nat gas production evacuated via pipeline to onshore fertiliser plant and condensate production stored on FPSO and exported by transfer to Shuttle Tanker.

Nam Du / U Minh Development Concept

'Jadestone plans to jointly develop the Nam Du and U Minh gas fields. The proposed development plan involves two unmanned wellhead platforms, one located at each field, with produced fluids delivered to a central floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel at Nam Du.

Processed gas from Nam Du and U Minh would be exported via the nearby existing 18 inch pipeline owned by Petrovietnam that transports gas from the PM-03-CAA Block to the Ca Mau power and industrial complex in southern Vietnam.

Condensate would be exported by shuttle tanker. Gas production from the PM-03-CAA Block is currently in decline, and with no additional gas resource available, will result in sufficient pipeline ullage that Jadestone intends to utilise.'

mount teide
18/11/2022
17:33
Indeed they mention it on their website
jeff114
18/11/2022
17:29
Are you sure they need that fpso? I thought they could use existing infrastructure from a near exhausted field?
jeff114
18/11/2022
16:28
brad - I am relaxed about development of the Vietnam assets staying on the back burner for a year or two longer, unless a spectacular deal can be agreed with the Vietnamese.

As the longest led item is an FPSO, and when considering that shipyards will be operating close to capacity through to 2025, it carries significant execution risk to secure a slot and complete the tanker conversion to smoothly coincide with all the other marine civil engineering work, without experiencing potentially highly expensive timing issues.

Ideally, we should find a partner/s to spread the Vietnam execution risk - and keep spending the cash we are generating on more NWS and Montara type bolt on acquisitions with immediate FCF generation. The Vietnam project could see up to $200m of cash sunk into it before a Nickel of FCF is generated.

AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
18/11/2022
15:56
Thx! And in the share buybacks for 2 years and the value could be even much higher!
jeff114
18/11/2022
15:42
MT - 13.5K looks reasonable, I took the 12k boepd figure from a composite area graph, showing JSE's projected total five year production. The graph was high level and low in detail, so it required a ruler to estimate, and I was trying to be conservative!The logic of a deal is compelling from the Vietnamese side, so hopefully it will happen relatively soon, and will be a win-win for both parties.
bradvert
18/11/2022
15:28
brad - I like to leave some potential for upside revision!

As in all good deals - you have to leave something in there for the other side.

Update to a post made in April 22:

Replaced Maari with the North West Shelf assets.

'Recently laid out in an earlier post how its possible to make a very realistic case through a combination of organic growth and M&A activity for JSE to lift production to circa 65,000 boepd over a 3 year timeframe.

Assuming production post recommencement of Montara of 20,000 boepd is maintained over the next 2 years through the expected re-investment programme of infill wells and well work-overs.

Then, the following business development plan has the potential to raise production up to 52,500 to 65,000 boepd by between the end of 2024 and summer 2025:

7,500 - 10,000 bopd/day - further NWS Acquisition/s - December 2022
6,500 boepd - Lemang Field (@$6.50/mmcf - $38/boe) - Jan 2024
13,500 boepd - Minh/Nam Du Fields (circa $8.50/mmcf - $50/boe) - Dec 2024 / Summer 2025
15,000 bopd - 7,500 bopd/day of acquisitions in 2023 and 2024 (similar to PM/Montara/NWS)

Free Cash Generation at 65,000 boepd
Assumptions:
$5 - Blended premium/bbl
$25 - OPEX/bbl
$8 - OPEX/boe of Nat Gas
$200m - CAPEX
$50m - General Admin Exp
45% - Blended Tax Rate

FCF of $519m/£400m - £0.85/share
@ $75 Brent and an average of $8.00/mmcf($48/boe)for the Nat Gas

Giving a Business Valuation of(before taking into account the cash on deposit which could well be worth over £1.00 a share by end of 2024, depending on how much is used for the acquisitions) :

£2.55/share - @ 3 times FCF
£4.25/share - @ 5 times FCF

FCF of $744m/£572m - £1.23p/share
@ $100 Brent and an average of $8.00/mmcf($48/boe)for the Nat Gas

Giving a Business Valuation of:
£3.69/share - @ 3 times FCF
£6.15/share - @ 5 times FCF

AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
18/11/2022
15:04
hTtps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-18/us-oil-futures-prices-flash-oversupply-for-first-time-this-year?sref=dJOSAJZH&leadSource=uverify%20wall

Really? but the SPR is still being drained.

royalalbert
18/11/2022
14:45
Production moving away from China will only increase Vietnams demand for gas, and it's main customer is supposed to be a fertilizer plant, which gas supplier needs to be replaced, so also a product in high demand. I read 10k boe for the Vietnam gas fields
jeff114
18/11/2022
14:38
MT - Yes 20k bopd by summer 2023 looks plausible, but let's not forget the two Vietnam fields. The Maari RNS on Oct 27 said discussions were making progress. While production might take a couple of years to start, I'd anticipate an immediate effect on valuation when the projects were greenlit.In the Feb 2020 Capital Market day presentation, JSE's five year outlook showed Vietnam growing to around 12k boepd, then plateauing for a while.. (slide 24 of the deck) Of course the actual output will depend on the terms agreed, and the relative evolution of the oil/gas markets since that estimate, but it is likely to be material!
bradvert
18/11/2022
14:18
The Myth of High Oil Prices

It's all politically motivated by the failed economic policies of politicians in the West.

We know the best run oil companies today are extremely profitable at $75 Brent, as demonstrated by the all time record free cash flows the majors reported in Q4/2021.

Even without the huge impact shock to oil supply of Russia invading Ukraine, global oil production growth was always going to be severely constrained throughout this decade by the catastrophic circa 65% reduction in E&P Capex Investment since the oil price collapse in 2014( after averaging circa $110/bbl for 5 years before adjustment for inflation).


Historical Oil Prices:

$190/bbl - 2008 / Brent all time high price adjusted for inflation
$147/bbl - 2008 / Brent all time high price - inflation unadjusted

$122/bbl - Average Brent price between 2011 and 2015 - inflation adjusted
$105/bbl - Average Brent price between 2011 and 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$113/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2015 - inflation adjusted
$98/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$91/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2021 - inflation adjusted
$79/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2021 - inflation unadjusted

$70/bbl - Brent spot price when the Biden Administration were screaming in Q4/2021 for OPEC+ to do something about "high oil prices" !

During the recession that started in 2000, the Ftse fell 50% by 2003 and was still in correction territory some 20% down by 2006.

The counter cyclical commodity and shipping market bottomed in 2000 and by 2006 had seen oil go up by 205% and copper by 370% - many high quality, recession leaned, low operating cost, oil and copper sector equities leveraged to these price increases, went on to 10 bag or more.

The Baltic Dry Index(cost to ship commodities around the world) first peaked in this century in 2004 at 366% up, going on to make an all time high in 2008 at 823% up. Oil went on to peak in 2008 at 539% up and copper in 2010 some 574% up. A commodity and shipping sector recession then ensued until 2017, quickly followed the the Covid Global Pandemic, during which the BDI dropped 98%, oil 83% and copper 65% peak to trough.

After bouncing back in 2021, I'm expecting oil, copper and nat gas pricing to remain strong for most of the rest of this decade and for each of the attached by the hip, three main shipping sectors to have their 'day' in the sun too....and their equities (leveraged off the price of their production and charter rates) to perform even more strongly, regardless as to whether we have a long overdue recession in the West to correct inflated property and tech and general equity market asset prices as in the early 2000's.

AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
18/11/2022
14:03
OPEC may even cut again if the games continue.
royalalbert
18/11/2022
13:49
The oil market knows, it's just manipulated in my view. India and China are still growing as is SE Asia, there's more to the world than just USA and the west.
royalalbert
18/11/2022
13:37
Yes i think that has been almost exhausted now, as you say another factor to consider, the oil market dosnt seem to have taken into account which is surprising imo
tom111
18/11/2022
13:18
Tom111 once Biden stops playing with the SPR will also help.
royalalbert
18/11/2022
13:10
Oil weak again today hope the tide will turn in December when EU stops buying Russian oil and OPEC starts cutting supply by 2mbpd as stated
tom111
18/11/2022
12:45
M&A MO - Jadestone mostly buy for the future potential, and look for 30% IRR on an acquisition and 50% IRR on subsequent investment in the asset.

North West Shelf asset - the management must see considerable re-investment potential through infill drilling.......as they've indicated an interest in a larger chunk of the action should it become available.

Reading between the lines - get the impression negotiations are at an advanced stage for taking anywhere from a further one to four sixths of the asset over the next three months. At a price broadly pro-rata to the shareholding acquired from BP.

AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
18/11/2022
11:16
Indeed steadily buying back shares is the extra genius coupled with the extra ordained deals from the past and yet to come... the market doesn't have to be right, let the company do it's thing and shareholders will benefit
jeff114
18/11/2022
10:57
10 drills on the roster for 2023 , plus workovers.4 x PM assets4 x Lemang2 x Stag
croasdalelfc
18/11/2022
10:43
A very realistic scenario during summer 2023, where the company is producing 20,000 bopd at an average $90-$100 Brent, OPEX of $22-25/bbl, and a £1.50 share price .........has the potential to make buying back $15-$20m of shares during H2/2022 at an average of 75p each look the work of 'investment' genius.
mount teide
18/11/2022
10:19
The latest operations update stated that Montara repairs are now likely to come in at circa $4m. Looking on the bright side, you could say that the "savings" from the share buy backs have pretty much paid for the repairs....

# Shares bought back (to date) : 13,869,779
Average price of buy back : 77.44p
Cost of buy back (to date): £10,740,756 which at average daily X Rates = $12,275,560

Price at which shares bought back on 2 Aug 2022 (first buy back)= 100.68p

If shares had all been bought back at 100.68p then cost of buy back would have been:

100.68/77.44 x $12,275,560= $15,959,496

"SAVING" = $15,959,496 - $12,275,560 = $3,683,936

moonshot3
18/11/2022
09:28
19k is very possible - though I suspect JSE would set guidance lower ... perhaps 15-17k.It also depends if the PM assets have to go offline (partially) while the infill drills take place in H2. The same for Stag drills in H2 .Of course, an acquisition is also likely
croasdalelfc
18/11/2022
09:28
What a deal.
royalalbert
18/11/2022
09:25
Ian - In 2016, Stag was being hawked around the market for $50m - $75m - after one SE Asian O&G company agreed to pay $50m and announced the acquisition of the asset, they subsequently elected to walk away forfeiting their deposit. Probably, as result of getting nervous about the oil price continuing to fall to below $30/bbl, Stag production attracting a $5-8/bbl DISCOUNT to Brent pre IMO 2020, and the field having an estimated OPEX/bbl of $50-60/bbl.

Jadestone stepped in a few months later and offered a cash strapped Santos $10m, which was accepted. By the time the deal completed Brent was back up to around $60/bbl and the OPEX/bbl with Jadsetone's assistance had been lowered to circa $35/bbl.

Following adjustment for the financial benefit from the effective date of the deal, the last CFO told me it reduced the net price paid for Stag to $6m. Probably, less than one months cash flow today!

mount teide
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