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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Jadestone Energy Plc LSE:JSE London Ordinary Share GB00BLR71299 ORD GBP0.001
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  6.00 7.5% 86.00 84.00 87.00 86.50 79.30 80.00 1,618,538 16:35:23
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 159.4 -41.9 -9.5 - 400

Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 11676 to 11697 of 12425 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
25/11/2022
13:41
Might be a great time for MV to come back online.
royalalbert
25/11/2022
13:22
L2: 3 v 3 / 70p v 72p (rest between 73p and 77p)
mount teide
25/11/2022
13:13
11% - lol.....I have him on filter so didn't see that very poorly researched post.

The reason most European and US ports and inland storage facilities are full of empty containers is because the unprecedented boom period the sector enjoyed during lockdown has passed. With demand for container freight shipping back to its pre Covid level, the huge volume of new containers manufactured during the period to meet the boom time demand are now surplus to requirements. So, why ship them back from Europe and the US to SE Asia/China until they are needed?

Predictably, the record freight rates of the period which generated all time record FCF for the sector, triggered a tsunami of newbuilding orders, which along with LNG carriers now fill the order-books of shipyards out to 2025/6.

Which means a glut of new mega containerships entering the market over the next few years which will have an entirely predictable impact on shipping freight rates. It's why the valuation of most of the large container shipping companies have more than halved over the last year or so, with further falls almost inevitable.

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Global Container Freight Index
hTTps://fbx.freightos.com

Container freight rates have dropped by circa 73% in a little over a year, and are now closing in on their long term average, where a 40ft container can be shipped 12,000 miles by sea from China to Felixstowe for around $3,000, and retuned for circa $400(yes, you read that right - since there is no demand, with over 90% of freight containers returned 'filled' with nothing but fresh air!).

However, when the pendulum swings it never stops at the long term mid point, it always overshoots(on the up and downside) before coming to rest at its long term average. So, with a deteriorating ship supply versus demand dynamic over the next 2-3 years for the sector, I would expect container freight rates to continue falling below the long term average and probably stay in a sideways channel below that long term average for at least 2-3 years.

The future challenge the containership industry faces is the exact reverse of that of the oil and product tanker shipping sector........where the supply/demand dynamic will very soon experience an unprecedented circa 10% INCREASE in demand for its services for an industry where the supply/demand dynamic was broadly in balance, and used to accommodating 2% a year growth.

The consensus best case scenario of a reduction in Russian crude and refined oil product exports post the implementation of the EU ban is 1-2m boep/d. Which, even in the event of a major slowdown in the global economy next year, is still likely to make an already tight market for crude oil, and a stretched to near breaking point diesel and distillates market remain at a very strained level.

AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
25/11/2022
11:48
amaretto124 Nov '22 - 14:17 - 11671 of 11677
0 1 1
U r in denial of a global recession !!
Let me state another fact ..
All container storage facilities in UK are full ...
In simple speak ... the world is awash with empty or redundant containers.
Will be a good time to buy them if your building a house out of them !!

=====================

amer,

What we are talking about is crude and distillates......and the ships which carry them.

Your post is talking about goods which are transported in containers......ie, not oil.

11_percent
24/11/2022
18:39
hTTps://twitter.com/livermoreops/status/1595831166690639872?s=46&t=nRF5Cp6BwrkV7mNYSVg1qQ
croasdalelfc
24/11/2022
17:40
Straight from the man himself with regards to the 'massive' sells.

David Neuhauser
@LivermoreOps
ยท
13m
@JadestoneEnergy
is
@LivermoreOps
largest holding and we continue to seek to unlock its strong potential and deep value. Recent transactions are fund dynamics only and should not be interpreted in any other way. #energy #OOTT #commodities $JSE

https://twitter.com/LivermoreOps/status/1595831166690639872?s=20&t=QaPRpYFCuQbE1aGrGEFgAg

dcarn
24/11/2022
15:05
htTps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Russian-Crude-Will-Keep-Flowing-To-India-Despite-US-Pressure.html

The G-7 plans are likely to send oil prices higher (despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen claiming the opposite) and reduce tanker availability, both of which will threaten India’s energy security and hurt its economy as India is the third-largest consumer and importer of oil worldwide.

sea7
24/11/2022
14:54
The reason crude and product tanker owner's are finding it difficult to keep calm about the incredible good fortune coming their way from the impact of the EU's ban on Russian crude and refined oil products, is because they know, recession or not, the shipping capacity is not available to carry out the massive increase in demand (conservatively estimated by Clarkson's as close to 10%).

And all the main shipyards have full order books through to 2025/25 with containerships and LNG carriers.

So, regardless of a recession, or whether oil is priced at $70 to $120/bbl, they know, as occurred between 2003 to 2008, they will be guaranteed very high rates for their services for years.

Even if VLCC/LR2 ship charter rates were to increase from today's eyewatering by historic standards $80k-$100k to $250k/day, they would still only represent around 2% of the value of a VLCC oil cargo, taken by ship from the US to Europe.

mount teide
24/11/2022
14:33
dated 13th Nov..


This week, the Biden Administration released its last batch of oil from the SPR reserve, ending one of the most significant artificial increases in commercial fuel supplies. Some of this oil will not reach the market until late November to December after the last extension, but the bulk of the release is effectively over.

htTps://seekingalpha.com/article/4557117-uso-the-future-of-oil-as-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-release-nears-end

sea7
24/11/2022
14:17
U r in denial of a global recession !!Let me state another fact ..All container storage facilities in UK are full ...In simple speak ... the world is awash with empty or redundant containers. Will be a good time to buy them if your building a house out of them !!
amaretto1
24/11/2022
14:14
and if china and india wish to boost oil imports from russia, then they will need more ships.
sea7
24/11/2022
14:09
Canary in the Coal Mine signals for turmoil in the global oil markets in 2023 - pointing to higher prices and very high oil transportation freight costs.

The Baltic Clean and Dirty Tanker Indexes are a barometer on the future cost of shipping crude and refined oil products respectively around the world.

YTD Performance
+266% - Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
+214% - Baltic Clean Tanker Index
-16% - S&P 500

Performance Since the 2020 COVID Low
+492% - Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
+468% - Baltic Clean Tanker Index
+74% - S&P 500


Baltic Clean Tanker Index surged by a further 62(3.76%) yesterday. It's up 224 (22.9%) in a week and by 524 (45.1%) since 3rd November.

The 524 point rise in just 15 trading days is remarkable, as its the equivalent of ADDING the AVERAGE PRICE OF THE INDEX between 2012 and 2022, onto a figure which is already nearly twice the average price for that period.

The product tanker sector this year is demonstrating all the hallmarks of its first cyclical boom since 2003-2008. Its up 1,288 (214%) YTD, and averaging nearly twice the average figure over the last 14 years.

Whatever adjustments have been made to the route weightings in the Index by the Baltic Exchange, the performance this month suggests they're now capturing the huge surge in charter rates the leading companies have been telling the market about during the last 2-3 months.

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (to ship crude) is up even greater largely because of preparations for the EU's ban on Russian crude exports commencing on Dec 5th. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (to ship diesel and distillates) took off in November in preparation for the EU's banning of Russian refined oil products which follows on 3rd Feb 2023.

One interesting development in the product carrier sector suggesting it's 'day' in the sun, like between 2003 and 2008, has possibly years to run, is the trend in the cost of a newbuilding versus a one year old ship.

LR2 Class - 2021
$61.0m - Newbuilding Cost
$57.5m - One Year old market value

LR2 Class - 2022
$64.0m - Newbuilding Cost
$74.5m - One Year old market value

Since, in the current market it would take 2-3 years from placing an order today to having the ship available for commercial operation, such is the market confidence in the strength of future demand for ships in the sector, the price of a one year old ship is now $10.5m higher than the newbuilding price. This would only occur if the market had a strong expectation of a continuation of this period of high rates for a significant period of time.

This was one of a number of factors behind increasing my holding in Scorpio recently.
My Dry Bulk v Product Tanker investment weighting is now 50%/50%. With 85% in Star Bulk and Scorpio.



AIMHO/DYOR

mount teide
24/11/2022
14:01
The IEA said last month...

Supply growth is set to “slow markedly” in 2023, although still reach a record of 100.6 million barrels a day. World oil demand is forecast to average 101.3 million barrels a day next year, the IEA said.

sea7
24/11/2022
13:57
Never mind a impending Global recession for 2023 ..... Can you tell me World oil consumption for 2022 ? I'll tell you ... it's 15 percent less than December 2019 ! Now let's look at all the ramped oil stocks that have basically collapsed..ADV .. EME .. ECO ..TXP ...list is endless... PANR next ? Already halved .... be careful they r dumping !!
amaretto1
24/11/2022
13:41
htTps://www.ief.org/_resources/files/events/first-ief-garp-global-energy-risk-forum-energy-security-and-transitions-in-the-new-risk-environment/global-energy-outlook---jp-morgan.pdf

We see increased risk of oil prices reaching $125/bbl in 2022 and upside to $150/bbl in 2023 (JPM Commodities base case avg. of $104/bbl in 2022 and $98/bbl in 2023).

Morgan analysts have reaffirmed this as of september...

htTps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-energy-supply-shortage-production-crisis-barrel-opec-saudi-2022-9

Oil prices are still headed to $150 a barrel as supply growth continues to lag, according to JPMorgan energy strategist Christyan Malek.

sea7
24/11/2022
13:33
the alternate extreme to amaretto1 view..

hTTps://nairametrics.com/2022/07/02/jp-morgan-warns-that-oil-prices-could-surge-to-380-a-barrel/


JPMorgan warned that if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts

JPMorgan analysts stated in a note to clients that Moscow can afford to reduce daily crude production by 5 million barrels without significantly harming the economy given the country’s strong budgetary situation.

However, the outcomes might be terrible for a large portion of the remainder of the world. According to the analysts, a daily supply reduction of 3 million barrels would cause benchmark London crude prices to rise to $190, while a reduction of 5 million barrels would result in “stratospheric” prices of $380 a barrel.

sea7
24/11/2022
13:16
Absolute rubbish.....The truthful experts are saying oil will be 50 to 60 pb in 2023 !!!We are entering a global recession... who will be buying all this oil ???Don't be taken in ... by these ramping imbeciles....
amaretto1
24/11/2022
13:10
Post the December EU ban on Russian oil, if Russia then uses its own fleet to ship its exports, they will have a shortfall of shipping capacity of circa 1.0m bopd.

I calculate, that it would only need the oil price to increase by $7.7/bbl for the Russians to make up the shortfall in lost revenue.

So, all the EU oil price cap and Russian export ban by sea will have achieved is to take another 1.0m bopd of capacity out of a very tight market, and push up their own oil import costs, through having to source the shortfall from the Middle East and SE Asia/China.

And then the second Asteroid hits in early Feb, with the EU ban on Russian refined oil products.

No wonder market traders are placing huge bets on $150 Brent for next spring!

mount teide
24/11/2022
12:58
have you changed your view then ashkv...

ashkv - 20 Sep 2022 - 09:30:02 - 11058 of 11660 Jadestone Energy (JSE) - ex Talisman Energy Team's New Venture - JSE

Based on H1 2022 Results and impending NW Shelf Acquisition adding Net 2077bpd (per JSE actual has been higher for H1 2022) - I forecast around 9500bpd current JSE production absent 7500bpd from Montara - At 70p Jadestone looks very cheap even assuming Montara is offline indefinitely...

sea7
24/11/2022
12:37
A legendary "investor" vis-a-vis a speculator... at the end of the day it can all be categorized as speculation...

hxxps://www.trendfollowing.com/paul-tudor-jones/

ashkv
24/11/2022
12:36
Sea7 - On the first signs of trouble at HUR - if an investor had cut position they would have have likely exited at a profit from entry given prior share raises.

I invest from a few months to a few year for most of my positions - JSE is looking like a situation that could be up 30-40% or down 20-30% or worse if issues with Montara..

What is this below? I was referring to the investment in HUR got wiped out!!!

"the only people who got wiped out on hurricane were those that held a position that used close to all their investable wealth in the one investment or trade. In other words, a position that was too big relative to total investable wealth, as it put their entire account at risk in the event of a catastrophic loss."


Really - relative if Montara not online for an extended is it really a steal? You should perhaps evaluate the wider E&P spectrum on AIM/LSE!!!

"If this does hit the 50's - i will be adding to my existing position, as free cash flow and cash balance, as well as assets, makes this an absolute steal at even todays prices."

ashkv
24/11/2022
12:00
ashkv - I think the difference between investor and speculator needs to be remembered.

if you are focused on capital preservation, you would never commit any money to a high risk situation. Downside risk would outweigh any potential returns and would rule out the investment or trade.

Something like hurricane where they downgraded the asset base and everyone took a big haircut is a risk that goes with O and G territory, hence position sizing relative to overall portfolio.

the only people who got wiped out on hurricane were those that held a position that used close to all their investable wealth in the one investment or trade. In other words, a position that was too big relative to total investable wealth, as it put their entire account at risk in the event of a catastrophic loss.

capital risk management dictates that a total catastrophic loss of investment should mean an absolute minimal impact to your overall portolio.

If this does hit the 50's - i will be adding to my existing position, as free cash flow and cash balance, as well as assets, makes this an absolute steal at even todays prices.

sea7
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