Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 28/3/2023 20:38

O/T

The infrastructure s/w and planning area is interesting and in need of substantial digitisation. Have been buying Nemetschek out of Germany and have a decent stake now, hope they don't drop the ball.

Consolidation in this area, with IQGEO as a target, needn't come out of the likes of GE, Siemens etc etc. It could come out of someone like Nemetschek or Constellation or CGI. There are many potential suitors that might look to enter IQGEOs market and wanting a planning & management add-on.

[p1nkfish] 28/3/2023 20:25

The way Operational Maturity was referenced in the results is worthy of note. A sign of aware management. Excellent of Petti & team to reference that and suggests they have much larger ambitions. It also highlights an increased cost base so sacrificing some profit now for more later - 2024+.

They will have the EBITDA and free cashflow to go after those much larger ambitions and disrupt the majors and it should be less arduous if the foundations are put in place properly now.

Excellent Petti & team.

"OPERATIONAL MATURITY.

A challenge for IQGeo in FY2023 and beyond will be to evolve and mature our own organisational structures and processes to successfully manage the increase in the volume and diversity of our customers.

While it is exciting to announce new projects with tier 1 telecom or utility operators, we also recognise that these customers bring an increased expectation for service levels and customer support. As part of our growth strategy we have been working across the entire organisation to up-scale our skills, processes, and tools to create a truly world-class delivery and service capability.

In 2022 we significantly expanded our delivery and service team and upgraded our software tools to optimise our processes and adapt industry best practices. This included hiring a new Senior Vice President of Delivery who came to us with extensive experience in building a scalable global delivery strategy.

While IQGeo already has a strong working relationship with our existing customers with a 108% net retention for recurring revenue in 2022, looking ahead to 2023, we are not complacent about this success given the strategic importance of recurring revenue to our business model. The challenge of scaling up our business touches on virtually every department and individual across the organisation and we are investing in the talent, technology, and processes we need to ensure our future success and secure predictable recurring revenue with our growing customer base."

[p1nkfish] 28/3/2023 20:08

Somebody at Proactive has their own slant. I don't trust them. Finncap would do well to drop them a line and request Proactife be careful with accuracy.

Nowhere in the Finncap note does it say "demanding". Where did Proactive get that if some office junior didn't make it up?

Proactive wrote: "However, the finnCap acknowledged that the H2 figures contained significant one-off revenue, including £6.5mln of services and £3.4mln of Demand Points revenue from Comsof." Suggesting those one-offs might lead to disappointment one digested???

"Demand" was used 3x in relation to Comsof "Demand Points" (×1) and market demand (x2).

Finncap wrote:

A) "comfortably underpinning our forecast 17% rise in revenue to £31.0m in the year ahead."

B) "The margin, profits and cashflow will grow rapidly in the next few years as more high margin recurring revenue is layered on a flat cost base. In FY22, those sales continued to be driven by the global fibre network rollout, and looking forward we see an equally strong driver in upgrades to aging and inefficient electricity distribution networks" Cost base will rise so flat cost base is a no-no unless they mean after 2023 when costs of scaling up will likely be in the fost-base thereafter?

C) "The results are in line with our forecasts as upgraded with the post-YE update, and we
make no change to future expectations at this stage." If anything there could be upgrades if IQGEO get the scaling-up of operations right without excessively increasing the cost base.

D) "........the business invested to exploit huge new market opportunities ahead."

They pulled these results even with 5% margin reduction due to sales mix they expect to be rectified going forward and increased overheads for travel, exhibitions etc.

NOTE: "Although the shares have done well for investors, we feel the business is still in its very early stages of what it can achieve under an excellent management team."

THEY EXPECT FREE CASHFLOW POSITIVE FROM THIS POINT.

[w13ken] 28/3/2023 17:24

Update from Proactive Investors:

IQGeo Group: finnCap upgrades revenue forecast; keeps earnings on hold

finnCap has upgraded its revenue expectations for IQGeo Group PLC (AIM:IQG) following the software group's 2022 results announcement.

With the Comsof acquisition performing “exceptionally well”, the group generated a “remarkable” £17.4mln of revenue in the second half, leading corporate broker to believe that their previous £31mln forecast for full-year 2023 was too cautious.

However, the finnCap acknowledged that the H2 figures contained significant one-off revenue, including £6.5mln of services and £3.4mln of Demand Points revenue from Comsof.

The broker noted that earnings forecasts are already demanding, with adjusted EBITDA expected to rise from £1.9mln in 2022 to £6.1mln this year, and thus will remain unchanged for now.

finnCap repeated its price target of 230p a share, an 11% premium to the current price of 208.7p.

[johnwise] 28/3/2023 08:06

IQGeo reports nearly doubled annual revenue and loss narrows

Mon, 27th Mar 2023 19:55
Alliance News

(Alliance News) - IQGeo Group PLC on Monday reported a narrowed annual loss and nearly doubled revenue, leaving it confident for 2023 and beyond.

Headline revenue in the year to year ended December 31, 2022 grew 92% to GBP26.6 million from GBP13.8 million the year before, with recurring revenue accounting for 40% of the total.

The provider of geospatial productivity and collaboration software for the telecoms and utility industries said adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation improved substantially to GBP1.9 million from a loss of GBP800,000 in 2021. Its pretax loss narrowed to GBP1.8 million from GBP2.7 million.

IQGeo said exit annual recurring revenue of GBP15.1 million provides strong visibility of future revenues and cash flows.

"We remain very confident in our ability to deliver on our targets for 2023 and beyond," said chief executive Richard Petti.

He expects current levels of investment for fibre optic networks and grid modernisation to continue for a significant time.

By Jeremy Cutler, Alliance News reporter

[p1nkfish] 27/3/2023 23:22

So long as they don't excessively inflate the op-ex (headcount) it is looking very good indeed.

The current margins should expand as the recurring element becomes a larger %. It has been squeezed recently. That adds a double positive whammy as revenue grows as it appears it will.

Control costs and this could compound very nicely.

Developed markets are driving it and in time there is a massive wide open field in emerging geographies that will follow the developed areas into fiber, 5G and Grid. This isn't mentioned yet but when the likes of India start to utilise more formal tools IQGEO stands a chance. Probably starting with the likes of Ospinsight adoption (cheap) leading into the other products families.

Ospinsight have distribution in Indonesia and I think a couple of other emerging areas.

Add in Smart Meter planning and Heat etc. Again, they get no mention but areas that can add a fillip to growth.

2024 onwards are the years to really shine.

There looks like a seller in the background. Might be related to the end of the UK tax year or a holding needing trimming after the last year run-up to keep it within allocation boundaries.

Wouldn't be surprised to find it range bound for quite a while until the positive dynamics become more obvious to a wider audience.

260p+ is my guesstimate by end of Feb 2024 if they don't drop the ball. 30% upside in a year.

Dyor research etc.

[p1nkfish] 27/3/2023 21:08

An accumulated loss of £18M to use up.
Hardly something to be proud of but a few years of profit possible without thinking about tax.

[johnwise] 27/3/2023 10:18

27/03/2023 7:00am

RNS Number : 2273U

IQGeo Group PLC Final Results

(no borrowings)

[p1nkfish] 27/3/2023 07:44

Results as expected. Institutional roadshow today. IMC Wednesday.

2024 looks like real showtime if they don't drop the ball or go mad spending on excess headcount.
Much of this year might just be treadwater in a range.

How they move Comsof to subscription will be interesting to see.

Margins should shift upwards over time.

Expansion, headcount etc will be a test of management. Not easy to get it just right. Easy to overspend and damage productivity. TBD.

[p1nkfish] 25/3/2023 10:42

Keeping an eye on the weekly levels. As of today........

To move up convincingly we need a weekly close> 218p. If it does so on volume we probably run for a while.

To avoid a convincing move down we need closes >196p (approx). Any weekly close below and we have a problem.

Depending on the wider market and intentions of shareholders we could swing between both levels for a while until a decision is made one way or another.

Guesstimate target is about 260p by end Feb 2024 if nothing bad happens. Dyor, jmho etc.

[w13ken] 23/3/2023 23:57

It was shared on IQGeo's Twitter feed at 3pm today and although they occasionally share repeat items I don't remember seeing it before.

[p1nkfish] 23/3/2023 17:58

Kestrel will no longer publish their monthly factsheet for general release, only to shareholders and their nominees. Looking over recent performance, that may be the reason. IQGEO stood out as others rolled over.

[p1nkfish] 23/3/2023 17:30

Good find, any idea how long it has been out for?

[w13ken] 23/3/2023 15:16

A very slick online "Video magazine" on IQGeo & Telco has been produced in cooperation with industry experts.

"IQGeo sponsored the research and interviews provided in this Video Magazine. The topics covered are of strategic interest to IQGeo as its geospatial network design and management software is used by telecommunications and fiber network operators around the world. Visit their website to learn Why network operators partner with IQGeo."

Worth a look...

[p1nkfish] 20/3/2023 16:31

Low volume sell took it to 196.5p today. Posts 1265, 1266.
Could now slip towards 184p on any reasonable volume of sales.
Proper reversal needs about 217p.
Interesting to see if the results make much difference outside of a short term bounce.

[p1nkfish] 18/3/2023 11:19

What happened to land at expand at Duke Energy, nearly 4 years since they presented together at AGA? Duke had a hotch-potch of GIS to tie-up.



Duke were #2 on market cap this time last year.

[p1nkfish] 18/3/2023 11:00

YES!

"In the past, RP has talked about how much bigger the utilities business could eventually be than fiber, and would hope to see that line developed further in this report and presentations."

[horseyphil] 18/3/2023 09:42

Agreed, the outlook statement is absolutely critical.

What we don't want to see is use of 'challenging' or talk of clients deferring or delaying projects. Telecoms-related companies Spirent and Calnex both produced decent results but expressed caution about the market going forward, and the share prices of both tanked.

Lots of companies in other sectors have been similarly treated by the market if the outlook is cautious, no matter how good the figures they report.

An upbeat outlook, combined with the financials that we know will be good, should support the current price, and I could see the share price rising if they can report major progress outside of fiber.

In the past, RP has talked about how much bigger the utilities business could eventually be than fiber, and would hope to see that line developed further in this report and presentations.

[p1nkfish] 18/3/2023 08:50

We know > £26M revenue so that's in the price.
Forward look will drive valuation, probably.

[w13ken] 17/3/2023 17:01

RNS just out: "IQGeo is pleased to announce that that it will publish its results for the twelve months ended 31 December 2022 on 27 March 2023." with Investor Meet on the 29th.

[w13ken] 17/3/2023 16:57

Good spot RN, here's the free part:

"This Stonking Small Cap’s technology is in high demand.
This fast-growing company’s award-winning software is in high demand as utility and communications network operators seek to get to grips with their sprawling networks and meet their digital transformation ambitions. A string of significant contract wins has lifted the shares, but it remains a small company in a huge market with significant growth potential, as you can discover here.

The inability of utility contractors to know the location of essential pipes and infrastructure has highlighted the requirement for this company’s technology, as processes developed 20-30 years ago are simply no longer workable in the current environment.

While shares in this fast-growing company have had a strong run over recent months, it remains a very small company in a very large international market.

A series of bolt-on acquisitions over recent years have also added relevant technologies and…"

[red ninja] 17/3/2023 15:53

I see Iqgeo has been tipped by Investor’s Champion website on 10/3/23. It’s a pay to see site.

[w13ken] 17/3/2023 13:22

My #1 holding and among the steadiest in the recent share price swings. I will top up if it drops below 190p as future success looks all but guaranteed with the team that Richard Petti is putting in place.

[p1nkfish] 17/3/2023 10:55

Was expecting some fall back in price. Could go further. Results are largely known from the TU so no positive surprises there next week.

End of qtr, end of tax year effects.

Also, needs to show it's not just a fibre play. The more diverse on end markets and geography the better. Looking too fiber biased imho and the question becomes what happens when roll-outs are complete?

If it breaks 196p then its heading a decent amount lower.

Word is consolidation can happen much quicker than we might expect. Either as a further buyer or as a target. Various potential parties inc Constellation and CGI as well as other really obvious suitors.