Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 17/7/2023 08:06

Could be a much larger business. Just wish I owned more shares!

[p1nkfish] 17/7/2023 07:17

Dyor, but even in the face of future market turbulence how can this be anything other than a strong hold?

Growth like this is not common in the UK and its underpinned by long-life infrastructure investments by a whole spectrum of customers from SME to Tier1 mult-billion $ corps.

Well done IQGEO.

[p1nkfish] 17/7/2023 07:11

Excellent TU, well done all the contributors.

Onward!

Any decent Grid news out of the US and it will put even more fuel on the fire. It will come.

[red ninja] 16/7/2023 15:02

IQG continues to be covered by Investor's Champion which considers it a Stonking Small Cap. However, not sure if Investor's Champion is a big influenece. It tip is not really revealing any new to IQG followers.



Dated 12/7/23.

Second half of tip :-

Broker forecasts
For the year ending December 2023 revenue is forecast to climb 24% to £33.0m, adjusted EBITDA rise 220% to £6.1m and the Group register a maiden adjusted pre-tax profit of £3.5m. Forecast earnings per share of 5.0p result in a seemingly heady Price Earnings (‘PE) multiple of 60x or 4.2x forecast revenue. Forecast free cash flow of £5.5m equates to a free cash flow yield of 3% at the current market capitalisation of £183m (share price 298p - initially 213p).

Forecasts for the following year ending December 2024 are for revenue to continue its double digit rise to £38.0m, pre-tax profit of £5.7m and earnings of 7.5p per share.

Given recent newsflow covered below we anticipate upgrades.

Recent contract news
Since the acquisition of OSPInsight there has been a noticeable acceleration of material (£1m+) contract wins. These include contracts with several major Canadian telecoms network operators, a fibre network provider in Germany, electrical utilities in the US and Japan and a US telecom network operator.

The start of 2023 brought news of the extension of an existing relationship with a Global Top 5 telecom operator with a further software subscription value of US$4.2m (annual value US$1.5m) and US$0.5m of services.

This follow on contract demonstrates the expansion and upsell opportunities afforded by the integrated software suite. The software will streamline processes associated with the build out of fibre networks that were planned using IQGeo's fibre network planning and design software.

In February they announced a major new contract with NESIC in Japan to deliver a utility disaster assessment solution for Japanese public authorities. The £1.9m deal over 5 years includes IQGeo's software platform and mobile capabilities consisting of a £1.0m licence and associated support and maintenance.

IQGeo has a long-standing integration partnership with NESIC who has provided disaster assessment and emergency response solutions to some of Japan's largest electric utility operators. The new solution integrates a wide range of data streams and weather analytics into a single IQGeo geospatial dashboard for office based and mobile field crews. The solution enables public service authorities to effectively monitor and manage their disaster response activities during Japan's frequently severe typhoon, earthquake and tsunami incidents.

In April came the announcement that the OSPInsight fibre network management software has been selected by a rapidly growing large tier 1 telecom operator in the US to replace a competitor's solution. This is a significant contract for IQGeo's SMB software division (having a subscription value of US$500k over three years plus over $2.0m in professional services to be recognised in the Dec 2023 financial year), reflecting the success of this team in securing larger customers.

Operating in multiple markets across southern states, the operator has grown significantly through organic expansion and acquisition. With their existing ESRI-based mapping software unable to meet their increasingly complex requirements, they turned to IQGeo for an optimised fibre network management and workflow solution. The first phase of this project employs IQGeo's fibre industry experts to migrate network data from disparate systems into a single shared System of Record. This initial deployment has significant future expansion potential as the customer rolls out software to field teams and expands applications into planning, construction, and maintenance operations.

Most recent in July came news that an existing top 5 Japanese utility customer had signed a new subscription agreement to significantly expand its use of the IQGeo software for emergency response. The total software Annual Contracted Value for this customer will grow by approximately 100% to more than £1.1 million. IQG subsequently announced news of significant contracts with a tier 1 US telecom provider and one of Germany's leading broadband operators. The German customer contract has a total minimum Annual Contract Value of more than €2m over a 3-year period while the US customer signed a 3-year contract with a value of more than $2m.

Why is at a Stonking Small Cap
IQGeo addresses a very large and rapidly changing market, and more significantly one that would appear to be in dire need of its software.

Through a combination of organic growth, supported by niche acquisitions, the Group is growing very fast, with revenues up over 180% since 2020 and double-digit growth set to continue.

Once embedded in a client’s systems the ability to upsell other parts of the software suite seems clear, reflected in recent contract news.

While the rating, based on earnings, looks full in the current climate and IQG is only just moving into profitability, the excellent client retention rates and growing amount of recurring revenue provides plenty of visibility and assurance.

The contract with NESIC in Japan covered above, highlights its innovative nature and opportunity for growth into new adjacent markets.

The shares have nearly doubled over the past 12 months, on the back of plenty of positive contract news and upgrades. While a degree of profit taking might be expected in the short term, this one is proving hard to ignore.

[p1nkfish] 14/7/2023 19:45

W13, it's good that no herd have turned up here. Nearly every pbb is currently quieter than usual but there have only ever been a very few posters on IQG at any time. Tightly held and under the radar is good.

[w13ken] 14/7/2023 17:59

Yes, loving this recent jump. I'm 123% up but feel there's more to come with their direct challenge to Esri's ArcGIS EUN upgrade and the strengthening of the global team. My #1 holding and 25% of my ISA portfolio value but I'm holding tight.

I don't think this is over exuberance by PIs as the shareprice movement seems rather too large. We've not seen any RNS's on II buys either.

The TU is imminent and should arrive next week. Maybe there have been leaks.

A bid rumour is possible but I hope it's not that as I'd love to see where IQG could be on their own steam in 3 years time.

[p1nkfish] 14/7/2023 16:44

End of first week after end of H1 and.. . . ends that week on an all time high.

Also happens to be over an "00" price boundary.

Interesting.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2023 06:38

Search this thread for "cup" to see possible next targets.

So far it has played out in a text book fashion.
If the next leg does too this is heading towards the target mentioned in one of those posts.

There are a few posts, post 1333 mentions next leg after breaking 297p target and through 300p.

Not guaranteed but interesting that around 297p was forecast after breaking through cup & handle so why shouldn't the next leg also come to be? No timescales though.


Edit: if this follows a text book cup and handle the target price is 477p-500p. Dyor etc.
No timescales but if 2024 is as good as it has potential to be then 18-24 months. Sit through volatility as trading it looks hard at any reasonable volume. I'm often wrong so double check yourself.

Post 1333, 11th May, target was around 468p and called 297p well. I think 450p+ is not at all impossible if it continues to follow the play book.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2023 06:30

Now broken upwards out of the cup and handle going back to around Feb 2014.

The structure is classic and a lovely shape. Break-out usually results in further upward momentum that appears to be the case here now.

I expect H1 results will be OK but not necessarily stellar. Fireworks possible FY2024 or a little before in anticipation of 2024. Costs will have increased, probably before the much extra revenue shows through, but costs settled by 2024 with the revenue coming through (and some) leading to a better bottom line as new headcount helps revenue growth and customer penetration.

TBD.

It would be a great bolt-on for a larger s/w house looking for a vertical market add or to fill their own gaps. If that happens it should be at more than £3 by a decent margin imho.

[p1nkfish] 13/7/2023 06:22

Usually one of 3 main things........

1) over exuberance and bandwagonism stoking momentum, or,

2) so close after end of a half, some leaks that results will be stellar before results released, or,

3) some hint of a bid for the company has leaked to the market.

Always the chance there is real belief by new buyers that this will compound now for the next 3-5+ years so today's price will look cheap by then.

I do believe it will compound and if they are careful with expenses it will compound with a capital light structure. One reason I hold on top of the dynamics of the markets they address that are very accommodative to someone upsetting the status quo with a set of more mobile, field-first, tools.

GLA, dyor etc.

[w13ken] 12/7/2023 13:51

There's been a 20% spike in the shareprice in 24 hours! Any theories?

[w13ken] 12/7/2023 08:35

Business Weekly on the new contract extensions.

[w13ken] 12/7/2023 08:32

It looks like the German business may be GlasfaserPlus, a full-fibre joint venture of Deutsche Telekom. They were already working with Comsof.

[wjccghcc] 11/7/2023 17:40

Fair point.

[p1nkfish] 11/7/2023 16:59

It's badly worded in that case WJCCGHCC and they should have written TCV (total contract value) instead of ACV (annual contract value).

[w13ken] 11/7/2023 15:47

What happened in the last hour? 11% up at one stage!

[wjccghcc] 11/7/2023 15:20

I think it means the ACV is over 3 years, so 667k p.a.

[p1nkfish] 11/7/2023 08:10

Edited:

Germany is a minimum of €2M over 3 yrs.

US is about $700K p.a. for 3 years.

[p1nkfish] 11/7/2023 08:03

Excellent news of cross-sell and land and expand.
Success breads Success and higher moral in the workforce which help a company spiral upwards.

Well done.

Some recent sellers may regret it.

Soon we will probably see small then progressively larger wins in the Electric Grid space. Give it another 12-24 months. If so, the party will really get started as the penny drops that IQGEO has the right offering at the tight time in the right spaces at very good margins. Offerings that are sticky, relationships that are deep and lasting. Morphing into Enterprise needs.

Those types of company are rarely cheap.

[p1nkfish] 10/7/2023 22:51

A good hire with original Smallworld experience from early on, 1992. Must have a depth of contacts that can only help gain exposure for IQGEO offerings.

[p1nkfish] 08/7/2023 21:55

6th July in BTR - [...]

[p1nkfish] 07/7/2023 08:31

I keep an eye on 1sparial but don't hold it.
A positive TU today.
Hope that's a sign of things to come on any TU at IQGEO also.
Different markets but all GIS related and s/w.

[p1nkfish] 03/7/2023 23:57

Probably TEPCO. Largest Electric Utility in Japan and 4th largest globally. Given a % of admin staff, chances are all field and maintenance staff (with the extra 10K announced today) have a licence. Not easy to unseat IQGEO there now. Similar performance at a US utility would like a fire under this imho.

"In the fiscal year 2022, the total number of employees at Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc., also known as TEPCO, stood at approximately 27.59 thousand."

[w13ken] 03/7/2023 08:34

IQGeo get very little Financial press coverage but this update is on Proactive.

[w13ken] 03/7/2023 07:54

Similar to last year with a pre-Interims TU sign-up launching an acceleration of the shareprice. Once IQGeo land the customers will nearly always expand.