Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2023 16:41

Our posts crossed hp. Transfers occurring the right side of 200p. Would be easy for sales of that volume to trash the price.

A thought experiment, probably wrong but has come to mind:

1) Say IQGEO know a major holder wants to reduce, a holder that has been around a while. Finnncap also know,
2) Say someone else wants to join at volume and their interest is also known but hard to buy in the market,
3) Say everyone (IQGEO, buyer, seller, Finncap) want an orderly market and transfer before and after,
4) Say the buyer & IQGEO want something left on the table for the new holder, makes sense........

If 1) - 4) are correct what is the likelihood the lack of news since the Comsof win (I suspect there have been newsworthy goings on since) and the low key launch of Adaptive Grid so far (a leading solution) and the TU (with just enough info but not too much), all helps facilitate that transfer at a satisfactory price for all concerned in an orderly fashion?

Once transfer of ownership is complete will we see more news, news that has, to some degree, been help back and the new holder gaining some upside benefit?

There is something going on here.

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2023 15:48

Volume again.
Not at all celar what's going on.
Transfers internal to a holder from one discretionary account to another or buy-sells?

[horseyphil] 27/1/2023 15:47

3.01M shares traded at decent price of 205p. That's 4.89% of the outstanding shares.

I think there have been a few other major trades this month too, so should be an RNS soon. Must be somebody building a stake, and, equally, somebody reducing. Something going on here.

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2023 09:11

Download the report-worth a look. Free of charge from Deloitte.

Look towards the bottom of this link for the 5 major trends for US Ultilities - 2023 onwards.

Every single one aligns with the capabilities IQGEO supports and helps achieve.

It's a the basis of a sales pitch for IQGEO !!!

[p1nkfish] 25/1/2023 11:12

No way to know what IQGEO would look to acquire but I do know few in the Grid space that are much use are cheap. Some interesting developments at the likes of Innowatts but no way would that be bought cheap. Kevala less than ideal has also raised about the same amount. Others that look cheap are rubbish and heading to the graveyard and the big boys are more likely to acquire - Schneider, GE, Hitachi, Oracle etc.

It might there are some small gap fillers and IQGEOs immediate future is organic growth - of which there is a lot to go for.

Organic is certainly less risky and not a limiting factor imho.

[p1nkfish] 25/1/2023 08:07

See post 1166.
I suspect IQGEO has benefitted from Overstory growth as much as Overstory has from IQGEO.
Not too difficult to raise capital in that whole area of assisting Grid reliability/resilience too.

[p1nkfish] 25/1/2023 07:55

I am biased so take that into consideration but I do see the future here as exceptionally bright vs other areas of the market.

1) Management who "get it"

2) Excellent product fit to the target markets

3) Multiple long-term very powerful trends aligned in favour of the product/offering

4) An installed competitor base that is not nimble & burdened by legacy tech debt

5) Desperate need for the target markets to move fast and update processes quickly

6) Sensible product pricing that is profitable supporting long-term ARR contracts

7) Islands of revenue vs cost that help hedge and isolate vs FX, ie) $ earners vs $ cost base.
will be similar in Euro in time.

8) Opportunites for consolidation via acquisition or being acquired - substantial $ in this area

9) Substantial opportunities to partner to increase capabilities/offering - Overstory example

++ others

[p1nkfish] 25/1/2023 07:39

A dearth of news on the Electric front in terms of wins, for quite a while. That area is the big one and Distributech the chance for Adaptive Grid to gain substantial exposure. All things DER will be of interest in San diego. Adding to grid, plannning, managing, twinning, recording etc etc.

IQGEO are in a really sweet spot including smart meter planning were there are gaps. DERs need bi-directional metering and some DERs are off Grid and have no meter at all - off-grid homesteads. Not millions of them but some would find extra $ income useful for excess energy that is currently stranded and need to be allowed for.

FERC2222 has the full weight of the authorities behind it & must be seen to be working.

If I was an institutional investor I would want a part of IQGEO.

This is what concerns me. IQGEO stated they would look to debt for any future acquisitions to avoid excess dilution. It would be no surprise to find the temptation to issue new shares is too great and they throw existing holders under the bus to get new institutions on the register and increase the float. If they do acquire, sensible debt would be the way to go as they will be throwing off cash and it would help keep the taxable profit down - whomever is in Gov next will come looking to tax us all to oblivion. Debt leading to growth well in excess of the cost of the debt would be sensible vs diluting existing holders - obvious stuff. I think there will be opportunities to do that in this area of Grid Scale Network Management.

[mighunter] 24/1/2023 16:25

Think someone is doing an exceptionally good job of accumulating under the radar here, delayed trades etc

[flvkl] 23/1/2023 15:06

With current double digit growth, strong secular demand for all IQgeo’s solutions, ESG focus in all parts of the world as strong tailwind, potential government grants (UK/Japan/EU and especially North America), I really do see way more value than a Mac of 400m if IQgeo is able to unlock all this potential in the coming years. All my opinion ofcourse:)

[p1nkfish] 23/1/2023 10:36

£400M would be great at around the current share float.

I see that as a buyout sort of price as it would have reached a useful penetration for one of the big boys. Low penetration is cheaper but also riskier for the acquirer as more work would still need to be done.

Give it a few years, a few new partnerships etc.
Grid is certainly higher potential than fibre.

[flvkl] 22/1/2023 20:32

To be honest, the demand for smart grid solutions is insane. If they can cross-sell their solution to all current customers and sell it to all the new, I do see the MC of IQgeo wayyy beyond 400m :)

[p1nkfish] 22/1/2023 16:54

What's not widely understood by investors this side of the pond is what FERC Order No. 2222, that came into effect February 2022, needs help to implement it. Planning for hooking up Distributed Energy Resources is front and centre.

Helping FERC 2222 will do IQGEO the world of good in the USA.

From what I learnt of it, Adaptive Grid puts IQGEO right where it needs to be.





Do some research if this is new to you.
What do others think?

FERC 2222 is also where other software needs arrive for management.

The DERs need to be connected and to do that requires planning and tools and, over time, maintenance.

"This controversial regulation opens the door for broader participation in energy markets throughout the country by instructing regional grid operators (RGOs) to allow Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) to participate in markets previously restricted to larger projects operating on the transmission system."

[flvkl] 22/1/2023 14:16

Thanks! Appreciate it!

[p1nkfish] 22/1/2023 14:02

I don't see any dividend for a long while.
Cash needed to grow.
Return for investors will be better in internal investment than taxable divis.

I might be wrong and they plan paying out cash but if I was running the place I would grow as priority #1.

[p1nkfish] 22/1/2023 13:42

I hope they remain independent but the way the world goes it will have "acquire me" emblazoned across it to fill a gap in a bigger operations capabilities.

Smallworld was sold to GE and then Tensails set-up by 4 of the Smallworld people that then set about Ubisense from which IQGEO was spun.

Sansome was Fore systems, sold to Marconi, and holds 7% or so.
Kestrel have a track record of selling on.
Etc.

A solid UK champion in this field would be great but if someone comes along with enough cash to satisfy enough holders we all know what tends to happen.

If they get the next few steps right I do see them being a multiple of today's market cap even though it is fully valued now.

The margins, ARR, long term customer base, growth potential - all line up.

[flvkl] 22/1/2023 13:18

Thanks mate! Last question, what makes that you think they will be bought out by 2030? Did someone within the board mention this previously? They all seem very motivated to run the business for a very long time. I really hope they will blossom and growth to a monster in the field. Nice divis by then I suppose :)

[p1nkfish] 22/1/2023 11:06

Best is to look at the Finncap projections based on the numbers from the company. 2030 is a lifetime away & likely bought out by then. I would expect at not less than a multiple of todays price.

Longer they grow independently the higher the value when they are sold.

The big boys will want this - many suitors from the obvious GE Digitial to Schneider, Siemens and at least 5 others.

[flvkl] 22/1/2023 10:50

Hi all, just found out about this stock. Have to say it seems to tick all the boxes of an amazing company. Despite the growth the last years, I could not find an outlook for 2030. Does somebody have info regarding the expected earnings by then? What do they aim for? Thanks!

[p1nkfish] 21/1/2023 13:18

It is an industry leading solution.
Research it and prove it to yourself.

[p1nkfish] 21/1/2023 13:17

It's obvious I'm biased towards what this company is doing and fascinated by its development.

That said, anyone reading this, please study and research "IQGEO Adaptive Grid".

It's excellent. Add in Comsof Smart Grid and there is a solution for the addition of sources and metering at all scales. Planning, execution (small and large scale roll-out), maintenance.

This sort of solution is critical for the addition of distributed energy sources and will be/is a massive growth area.

It becomes even more interesting when extra layers are added (possibly not IQGEO) to help predict and maintain Grid stability and where new distributed input sources should be encouraged to fill in gaps vs demand.

The weird part is when the EVs become involved. They are energy storage on wheels and new business models are now in consideration in the automotive OEMs - too complicated (and early days) to know where that will end up but is being modelled (not IQGEO).

Anyway, if they don't slip up this will be a fantastic company to have in portfolio.

83.82% of it is currently held by the 3%+ brigade.
At one online meeting it was mentioned further acquisitions were likely via debt rather than dilution.
Whatever they decide its sensible to keep all stakeholders on side including those holding < 1%.
How it treats PI's is important.

Very excited by where "Adaptive Grid" can take this company and by what I think Comsof can add outside of fibre planning by repurposing their capabilities.

The best is yet to come imho, dyor etc. I am often wrong and am biased here.

[p1nkfish] 21/1/2023 09:10

Disributech soon. IQGEO Adaptive Grid now in the open. A decent chance of some sales wins or even news around early-mid Feb.

[p1nkfish] 19/1/2023 17:51

Interesting volume at 207p.
Anyone have any ideas?