Iqgeo Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 18/4/2023 12:04

If they do £45M (stretch) this is about £200M+ market cap.

[horseyphil] 18/4/2023 08:22

Replacing this customer's ESRI system is hugely significant, equivalent in importance to the landing of AT&T as a customer was in 2022, maybe even more so.

ESRI still dominates the market and its contracts will be sticky, but they are now clearly vulnerable. ESRI will respond, but important to remember that telecoms and utilities are still a small part of its revenue which is dominated by governments and institutions. Also, it is, amazingly, still owned by the same person who founded it in 1969 and run conservatively.

Agree that finnCap will surely need to upgrade revenue forecasts. For 2024, I would hope that revenue will be closer to £45M than the £35.4M that finnCap currently forecasts. That's a stretch target, but could well be achievable.

[p1nkfish] 18/4/2023 07:35

A point to note - this is SMB (Small & Medium Business) but still $2.5M. Large for the SMB segment perhaps but indicative that other wins outside of SMB can be even larger.

[p1nkfish] 18/4/2023 07:26

Good news, given ESRI a poke in the eye. Sounds like another land and expand.

I just don't see the existing Finncap 2023 revenue forecast as valid, it is highly likely to be upgraded.

[p1nkfish] 17/4/2023 08:47

Another 30K bought but Kestrel at 211p. Good.
Probably a hint there?

[p1nkfish] 12/4/2023 10:27

Finncap FY23 revenue forecast of £31M looks too low to me.

No precision due to the big one-off services element in FY22 of > £10M but Comsof was running at £1.06M/month for only 4.5 months and should be £12M+ this year and there is what looks like £5M of services to address in H1 of FY23 carried over and I don't expect billed until complete.

Allowing a conservative organic growth rate and chopping back services to £5M like FY21 and it looks more towards £33M ???

Comsof will move to subscription so that will reduce revenue upfront for better visibility, and services are an unknown, but still £31M looks a bit light.

I won't post best case as that looks ridiculous and leaves the £31M forecast in the dust.

However, costs are rising with an expanded operation.
IQGEO is at an inflexion point in FY23 for what I believe will be a stellar FY24.

[p1nkfish] 11/4/2023 11:50

Another 10K to Kestrel on 6th April, same day as Petti. Good.

[p1nkfish] 11/4/2023 07:45

Check this for yourself and post what you see in case I am off the mark.

Major decline started around June 2014.
Prior to that, average price x-volatility, appears not far off where we are now.
Since then, on the weekly and monthly chart, there has been a bowl shaped recovery.
It looks like a cup & handle over a nearly 9 year period. That type of C&H does happen.
There's is good upside potential (very good) once they break through.

[p1nkfish] 11/4/2023 07:21

Petti bought 10959 shares at 209.86p. Good. Suggests no new news for a while though unless it's unexpected by him at the time of purchase.

Given the increase in value of Director shares issued to fund the Comsof purchase, it wouldn't be a bad idea for others to put their hands in their pockets too to buy on the market. Closed period now ended.

They bought those shares at a very decent price given prospects they knew were good. Treating the company as a cash machine. PI's and others had no opportunity to take part, including the CFO.

The decent thing would for each to buy a few shares on the market, imho, to show support around the current price.

[p1nkfish] 05/4/2023 09:25

After today the portfolio shuffling should be done for this tax year. A bit of news would help start the new tax year in a positive fashion and might attract some new money. We need new money to come in.

[p1nkfish] 03/4/2023 08:32

Closed period ended and Kestrel bought, good.

[p1nkfish] 02/4/2023 10:27

Good news hp. As conditions of the takeover that might help IQGEO a little........

VIDEOTRON are an IQGEO customer in fibre management so perhaps a chance in wireless too outside of Shaw/Rogers.

1) Transfer of wireless licenses held by Shaw's Freedom Mobile unit to Quebecor Inc-owned (QBRb.TO) Videotron. Videotron have committed to invest C$150 million to upgrade Freedom Mobile's network in the next two years.

2) Rogers conditions - investing C$6.5 billion to upgrade connectivity. If it breaches the commitments, Rogers (RCIb.TO) will have to pay a fine of as much as C$1 billion.

The $6.5Bn might require more IQGEO licences to help with roll-out.

All $'s are Canadian.

[horseyphil] 01/4/2023 10:14

The Rogers Communications takeover of Shaw Communications has been given final regulatory approval in Canada.

Shaw is a big customer of IQGeo's, and Rogers is the largest telecoms/cable company in Canada, so potential opportunities there.

[horseyphil] 01/4/2023 09:04

The delivery and body language in both the IMC and Proactive interviews looked very confident and assured, but I'm sure Richard Petti won't allow any complacency to set in - continue to be very impressed by him.

Robbie Burns' latest comment: 'Elsewhere IQGeo put out a good report, a nice under the radar one which looks like a decent long-term hold.'

That should keep his followers onboard.

[p1nkfish] 01/4/2023 08:45

Management will have better things to do than look at the share price but from our perspective it would be good to avoid any closing price below 196.3p. That is a line in the sand below which there can be further noticeable price weakness for a while. We've touch it 21-22/3 but avoided a close below.

[p1nkfish] 01/4/2023 08:29

Just watched, a good overview. Stressed IQGEO as the only full life-cycle offering and Comsof being a leader.

On the way to becoming a medium sized ARR based software company. Mentioned towards the end of the interview.

If profitability is reliable , and all else being equal, that would be (approximately) worth 5x-7x revenue at 60% ARR and 60% gross margin. My estimate only so may be way off.

So £50M revenue is about £250M - £350M market cap.
Lots of assumptions.

[w13ken] 31/3/2023 14:17

New IQG Proactive interview. Petti and Chapman very relaxed, confident and optimistic for the future. Organic growth preferred to further acquisitions but never say never...

[p1nkfish] 31/3/2023 08:48

We might get a holding RNS once complete. If shifting enough of this stock it makes sense to keep quiet about it until complete given how illiquid.

[p1nkfish] 31/3/2023 08:42

Another 200K traded and reported late. Not a lot in the great scheme of things except the 3M average is only 138K approx.

A shuffling of holdings has been ongoing and a good chance complete by end of next week ready for the new tax year.

Will there be some washout next week? Tightly held, I think the big holders have more sense and have been careful so far.

[w13ken] 30/3/2023 00:03

Cheers pf, if I could auto-like your posts then I would. You are very much appreciated on this board.

[p1nkfish] 29/3/2023 23:02

Thorough, covered everything. Re-iterated they see Utility as becoming a larger element of the business than Telco but Telco rules currently. About 70:30 for Telco:Utility if I remember correctly.

One useful question (it wasn't asked) would have been approximately when they envisage 50:50:and for Utility to then take over.

Steady as she goes.

Note the volume sales around 198p and low volume buys >200p. Looks like a continuing change in large shareholding and I think a good chance its done this side of new tax year. We see what happens if buying arrives after 1st week of April.

[w13ken] 29/3/2023 21:33

pf, I wasn't able to join the IMC meeting earlier but I will catch up. What did you make of the presentation overall?

[p1nkfish] 29/3/2023 12:34

One of the IMC slides references "Smart Grid System Landscape".
Pretty obvious that if Oracle wanted to be vertically integrated the missing link is IQGEO.
They already have a footprint in ADMS & ERP.