Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 21/10/2024 19:08

I’m increasingly concerned my nightmare scenario* here might actually become a reality (* Americo runs IQE into the ground, only to secure a lowball “rescue” offer + a lucrative new job from his former mates at GF).

[willoicc] 21/10/2024 14:22

The world does not need the greatest mouse trap ever.

Just one that does the job.

[lord loads of lolly] 21/10/2024 11:52

colsmith - I'm sure power saving will become ever more important, given AI's power-guzzling nature. Not to mention crypto.


What I'm far less sure about is that IQE will ever be able to capitalise on it.

They've squandered pretty much every other recent opportunity. Yet they still claim to be the leader in their field. Rings pretty hollow to me right now.

[guildedge] 21/10/2024 11:20

Artisan Partners Limited Partnership are now showing as having sold nearly 9-10m share on Morningstar.com. Their report in Mar 2024 suggested they still held all shares. So likely sold 10m share in last few months.

There could be many sellers here. This needs to fall further if that is the case. Artisan Partners Limited Partnership still have 10m shares left they could sell?

[colsmith] 21/10/2024 09:44

If compound semis really have a significant power saving over current stuff then this piece (from Skinny on NG thread) makes clear the need; suggesting IQE should be a crucial component in the so called AI revolution; assuming this is as big as the pundits believe.

"Tech giants eye power grab to feed their AI

Technology companies are in a race to get their hands on as much electricity as they can to power their huge bets on the transformative power of generative AI. A ChatGPT query needs nearly ten times as much electricity to process on average as a Google search."

[lord loads of lolly] 18/10/2024 08:17

Whilst better than nothing, relatively low YOY % growth simply doesn't cut it, given IQE's current overheads.

They were hitting £140m- £178m in the four years to 2022. Then in FY 2023, sales plummeted to £115m. So any growth compared to this 5 year low needs to be substantial to have any lasting impact. £130m-odd revenue would NOT signify substantial growth, would NOT lead to the company becoming profitable and would NOT boost the share price long term.

Until IQE can approach/exceed £200m TO, I suspect the share price will remain in the doldrums.

[guildedge] 17/10/2024 20:04

The average of the brokers are predicting 132.59m for 2024. 66x2=132m. So revenue for H2 2024 is flat compared to H2 2023.

Not to say demand won't increase in H2 but IQE were not predicting it. I assume Apple orders parts a month or so in advance. IQE would of had some sale data for July. Maybe less for Aug/Sept at time of the results but they would know what orders were on the book.

My opinion is sales are so low it would be hard not to meet the 132m figure. I don't know if they are losing customers in some areas. So there is always risk with IQE.

Even before the results came out I thought if H2 sales are below expectation this could fall. Especially when the share was drifting and being sold off before the results.

I think 2025 has more hope and GAN will improve sales. At present i don't think sales will increase as fast as many expect here. Then there is the issue of cash running out if sales don't start to hit 170-180m.

At 17p there is room for a punt here as when the seller finishes the price could recover. Albeit if Canaccord do sell all 12% this could edge lower initially. The price was held at about 17p for most of today.

[boboty] 17/10/2024 18:43

Americo forecast growth to be towards the lower end of analyst forecasts for the year. The lower end was £130M for the year and last years sales was £115M - so that is 13% growth at the very least. I'm hoping for more.

[guildedge] 17/10/2024 17:54

My point is H1 2024 was only 3m ahead of H2 2023. To not increase from H1 2023 figure would of been really bad given they talked of clearing stock in channel. They expected a figure much higher for 2024 H1.

These are the company's numbers to try and justify the poor results.

The 2024 H1 results depended on matching targets. They came in at the lower end of the three forecasts. No one expected anything below 63m. I expected sales levels to at least match H2 2023. They failed to get back business lost in the previous year in H1 2024. Personally I think you have read the figures wrong here and have IQE doing better than expected. This is why we're at 17-20p range here. That and Canaccord selling.

[boboty] 17/10/2024 16:33

Err - 27% growth in h1 this year is growth compared to h1 the year before. I don't know if there is any seasonality where sales are usually higher in the first half year or the latter but it is still good news and is a higher growth than expected of 25% given by the ceo in the article in June/july. It is certainly going in the right direction and way faster than inflation.

[guildedge] 17/10/2024 16:07

You should ignore the 27% growth in H1. As most of this was clients clearing stock in the channel. Compared to H2 last year the figures were barely changed.

[boboty] 17/10/2024 10:46

Yes but iqe don't make chips they make wafers that are used for Vcsels and power amplifiers and wi fi connections and data transfer. All of these now require compound semiconductors because normal silicon is just not fast enough and too power hungry.

[alotto] 17/10/2024 10:35

A reality check?
TWSC - Stellar results on AI demand! Now tell me why IQE complains about a struggling demand in the chip industry. IQE compounds are not as marketable as the old cheaper Si semiconductor.

[boboty] 17/10/2024 10:34

Well 1st half grew by 27% this year and vcsels by 40 something % together with the rumours and the very low price gives me hope the picture is changing

[willoicc] 17/10/2024 10:31

With years of experience of having to install new accounting software, I really wonder how today's software writers will ever be able to write AI software that will work properly.

[lord loads of lolly] 17/10/2024 09:58

colsmith - yes, both reasonable assumptions.

But as we've seen countless times already, this doesn't necessarily translate into more sales or profits for IQE.

Quite why remains a mystery, when they're still claiming to be "the leading global supplier of compound semiconductor wafer products and advanced material solutions".

Presumably, either they're delusional or selling way too cheap.

[colsmith] 17/10/2024 09:48

1ULT RE 5241 and PA - it seems a reasonable assumption that as AI is apparently hugely power hungry compound semi should be into a huge market (NVIDIA shows the size of it); also with the huge data centres driving stuff like GOOGLE energy is a big issue and anything that can reduce demand must be needed.

[cielos] 16/10/2024 22:46

Wants to move forward from this lows but at the end even the UT is against the rise

[picobird] 16/10/2024 18:52

Earlier this year the UK government bought their own semiconductor manufacturing facility for iii-v SC manufacturing for use in the UK military market.



The £20 million premises were bought from Coherent who were off loading this factory.

What is disturbing is the fact that the Aerospace company Leonardo had stopped placing orders at Newton Aycliffe.
The Military SC’s are normally a few years behind the latest SC’s as the Military do not need the latest chips. When the factory was originally opened by Elisabeth II the factory cost £400 million.

Presumably the government have arranged with Coherent to be able to use their know how in order to upgrade their manufacturing processes to more modern materials GAN, SiC, germanium etc.
Purely as a matter of interest, where do these tech companies get their practical know how from………..possibly Research facilities at UK universities or even the Catapult Cluster where I believe provide this sort of info for a fee.

(Sorry, not IQE related)

[1ultimate] 15/10/2024 18:22

The power amplifier (PA) supply chain is gearing up for a strong fourth quarter of 2024, driven by the strategies of major players like Apple and Huawei. Key players in the PA supply chain, including GaAs wafer foundries WIN Semiconductors and AWSC, along with upstream suppliers like IQE and Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co. (VPEC), are expecting increased demand. This surge is attributed to Apple's anticipated pull-in of A18 chips for the iPhone 16 and Huawei's renewed focus on the Chinese smartphone market. The strong demand from both China and the US is expected to drive significant revenue growth for Taiwanese PA chip makers.

[boboty] 15/10/2024 16:46

This might instil enthusiasm into the share -"PA supply chain braces for 4Q24: Apple, Huawei's strategies to shape global market demand" - pa stands for power amplifier- I can't read the article because I refuse to pay but iqe is part of it - what I would like to know is why they need to "brace" themselves because that implies a rapid change in fortunes. At the moment iqe is just about washing its face and is very under capacity so all extra business will significantly change its fortunes.