Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[longtallsally] 29/10/2024 16:25

I think you’ll find what is left unsaid by the CEO leaving immediately with zero embellishment, is more worrying than just getting rid of the dreamer. Market is expecting more bad news, which is being priced in. Hardly surprising

Provonars post is bang on the money.

[fuji99] 29/10/2024 16:19

"Would you all rather Lemos had stayed?"
Of course because you have at least a choice between a glass of limoncello or lemonade.

[mw16] 29/10/2024 16:03

You would think with the share price reaction that something catastrophic had happened. Essentially nothing has changed. In fact we have gotten rid of a complete balloon, Mr 3x.Would you all rather Lemos had stayed?

[boboty] 29/10/2024 15:58

President "Bobby": Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?Chance: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.President "Bobby": In the garden.Chance: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.President "Bobby": Spring and summer.Chance: Yes.President "Bobby": Then fall and winter.Chance: Yes.Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we're upset by the seasons of our economy.Chance: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!Benjamin Rand: Hmm!Chance: Hmm!President "Bobby": Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I've heard in a very, very long time. ... I admire your good, solid sense. That's precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.

[bing_b] 29/10/2024 15:50

Some kind of trading statement badly needed to either re-iterate current year expectations or get the pain out in one go. Hopefully the fall out was around future strategic direction rather than additional current weakness. But the last thing we need right now is more uncertainty.

[boboty] 29/10/2024 15:29

Sadly I think you might be right. Maybe there is a middle way or hopefully the new ceo will inspire more confidence and build better productive business relationships. Lemnos obviously didn't cut it in the time he had - he reminded me of Chance the Gardener in Being There " As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden."

[smorales] 29/10/2024 15:11

Crosswires As I understand it Drew has to purchase back the 13 million shares, but from EFH who hold them as loan collateral. The shares do not need to be bought in the market.

With the fall in the share price it's likely that he'll have a margin call from EFH (if he hasn't already) and need to provide further collateral, but as he's no longer a Director I guess this is now a private matter and there will be no notification required.

[crosswires] 29/10/2024 14:47

Just remembered this…Does Drew Nelson still have to repurchase 13 million shares at 44p?

[longtallsally] 29/10/2024 14:41

✅ An actual sensible and analytical post, thanks Provonar. Yes the business model (whichever of the directions they have gone in) has only been able to provide a profit in very rare circumstances and there is seldom more than the odd year of increased revenues before a bump in the road. What’s clear is without real world Gov support (like we have seen in EU, USA and China) it’s difficult to make a case for IQE succeeding in this space.

Talk of buying more shares only stacks up if we think someone may buy IQE for say £150m. Seems cheap perhaps but then again does it?

[provonar] 29/10/2024 14:34

What a mess.

Although the pressure was clearly on with the appointment of Harmesh Suniara to the Board (an investment fund doesn't push one of their people on to a Board if everything is going smoothly), I didn't expect Lemos to be forced out so abruptly. (And neither did any of the big shorters, by the look of things.)

I would expect the Mark Cubitt / Jutta Meier leadership to make an announcement as soon as possible to steady the ship and make clear how cash flow and client relationships are to be maintained in the short term. Then there will probably be further Board resignations as some of the Lemos appointees are culled (Meier was not from GF, so it's not clear whether she was a Lemos appointee or forced in by one of the funds...).

But the much larger issue is what direction can IQE now take? Lemos killed off the technology-focussed approach of Nelson, and now the 'client-need driven' approach of Lemos has been shown to be a turkey. The first approach relies on developing unique IP and then trying to persuade Tier 1/OEMs to include it in their upcoming products; the second approach relies on good OEM relationships where the qualifications lead to mass production orders where IQE implements the IP that the OEM/fabless customer has developed.

If both of these approaches cannot be made to work, there's not much left to go for and the whole epitaxy-outsourcing business model is called into question. Lemos wanted to pull in business from the vertically-integrated manufacturers by attempting to get them to outsouce their epitaxy - but it looks like he singularly failed in doing that.

However, there are other players who do seem to be doing better: VPEC have been eating IQE's lunch in the GaAs space; Landmark have shot up recently with their SoI epitaxy - and IQE previously demonstrated the market's out there, only to be undermined by their own partner (Lumentum) taking the mickey out of making so much money off Apple that Apple sank $100Ms into rival capability in Coherent.

So, it's very difficult to see what the best route forward is. Stick with GaAs & GaN epitaxy? Try to push more for co-packaged silicon optics? Head into the SiC space (which is meant to explode in demand over the next ~5 years, but is massively competitive with huge Chinese government subsidies)? Change the business model entirely and try to vertically-integrate, taking on some of the lithographic processes? (massive hurdle to entry there, needing a hugely-diluting fund-raise...)

I just hope this coup has some slight planning behind it and there are potential new CEOs lined up. However, knowing how the last change in CEO went, I somehow doubt this is the case.

This will also negatively affect the Taiwan IPO, as it will reduce investor interest - just what IQE doesn't need and also another reason why the Board now needs to move fast. The next couple of weeks will be telling...

[mw16] 29/10/2024 14:25

Are you insane are stupid?

[longtallsally] 29/10/2024 14:25

Depends which report you read i guess rest of world may be down but China better agreed, BUT Apple phone sales rarely translate into large profits for IQE, and they would already have supplied the wafers to Apples semi suppliers for this years phone.

[boboty] 29/10/2024 14:25

Err they haven't been selling apart from the 1% from canaccord - we would see in an rns. The selling apart from today has been modest.

[fuji99] 29/10/2024 14:17

He could be a disciple of Giacomo Casanova.
Lemos may therefore relocate to Venice,far better than the sad, dark and boring Welsh hills.

[lord loads of lolly] 29/10/2024 14:15

tomduck - you tell me not to speculate, then go & do exactly the same yourself.

Shurely shome mishtake?

[crosswires] 29/10/2024 14:12

Tom, good point, yes Lombard Odier insisted on a seat after the last share price meltdown and fundraise in 2023, could indeed have been instrumental in his chop.

[fuji99] 29/10/2024 14:09

For those who want to remimber his face:

[tomduck] 29/10/2024 14:07

Lords, we will possibly never know so speculation is pointless. He’s gone, he didn’t do a good job ultimately, and I expect his vocal uber positive message to large institutional investors who have now being selling heavily for the past month would be one potential reason as at least one had a seat on the IQE board

[lord loads of lolly] 29/10/2024 13:59

I still doubt we know the full picture re: Lemos' departure.

Whilst already seemingly unattainable, his forecast was - after all - for 2027. Not next year.

The fact he's gone with immediate effect & without so much as a thank you suggests some form of impropriety to me (financial or otherwise). But I am just speculating.

[longtallsally] 29/10/2024 13:51

Indiestu, your comment highlights the optimism of the IQE investor in all of us, and the fact that many have blindly invested here without really understanding what IQE do. I would love to see something to be optimistic about, however…

You think they dismissed Lemos with visibility that IQE second half revenues will beat estimates? More likely they are worse than estimated, which would be almost unbelievable and can’t be just sector issues.

Apple have already trimmed their estimates recently on iPhone 16 shipments 15% yoy decline.

[indiestu] 29/10/2024 13:37

Second half revenues are usually stronger then the first for IQE. FY24 could be an easy beat over the 134 forecast especially considering the iPhone 16 upgrade cycle, IOS 18.1 and Apple Intelligence. Many older iPhone models will be obsolete soon as they lack sufficient compute power. It's likely to be the biggest upgrade cycle in iPhone history. Apple and the supply chain are likely already raising inventory levels.

[willoicc] 29/10/2024 13:23

A few times, I travelled by coach via Holyhead, and we stopped in Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogoch. A lovely, very softly spoken, young Welsh lady came on the coach to tell us how to say it. I was in love as soon as she spoke. LOL

Maybe that is what got Lemos? Bigger LOL

PS. I can say Clanfair...............gogogoch.

[fuji99] 29/10/2024 13:21

So the next title should be: "The next lemon replacement will bring the best limoncello".

[mw16] 29/10/2024 13:21

He got sacked