Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[davemac3] 29/10/2024 07:06

Looks like the rest of the board disagreed with his strategy

[davemac3] 29/10/2024 07:04

Blimey, didn’t see that one coming!

[lord loads of lolly] 25/10/2024 21:59

46maxon - I’m afraid that sounds like a load of old AI-generated guff to me, which doesn’t get us much closer to any meaningful investment conclusions.

FWIW, my thought is that we may drift down another two or three pence over the UK budget / US election period. At which point (around the 12p mark), it might merit a small speculative add in the hope that 2025 brings a few green shoots from sectoral improvements & a de-stocking unwind.

[46maxon] 25/10/2024 19:19

IQE is a UK-based semiconductor company that specializes in producing advanced semiconductor materials, primarily for use in technologies like smartphones, telecommunications, and, increasingly, in high-growth areas such as 5G infrastructure and electric vehicles (EVs). Here’s what to consider about IQE as a potential investment:

1. Core Business and Market Position

• Compound Semiconductors: IQE’s focus on compound semiconductors differentiates it from traditional silicon-based players. Compound semiconductors are vital for high-performance applications, such as photonics (sensors, facial recognition) and power electronics (5G, EVs). As these markets grow, IQE is well-positioned to benefit.
• Competitive Position: IQE has strategic partnerships and a strong market position within this niche, though it faces competition from larger semiconductor manufacturers and potential advances in alternative technologies. Evaluating its ability to maintain a technological edge is key.

2. Revenue Volatility and Profitability

• Cyclical Revenue: IQE’s revenue can be volatile, partly due to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry. Factors such as global semiconductor demand, supply chain constraints, and shifts in smartphone sales influence IQE’s performance significantly.
• Profitability: Historically, IQE has faced challenges with consistent profitability, as R&D investments and production costs have impacted margins. If they’re showing signs of improving margins or increased operational efficiency, this would be a positive indicator.

3. Growth Potential in Emerging Technologies

• 5G, IoT, and EVs: IQE’s products are aligned with sectors expected to grow rapidly. For example, 5G infrastructure and IoT devices require high-performance semiconductors, where IQE has a role to play. Growth in these areas could directly translate into higher revenues.
• Photonic Technologies: IQE also supplies materials for photonic devices, such as lasers and sensors, used in facial recognition, autonomous driving, and other applications. If demand for these technologies grows, IQE may see a positive revenue impact.

4. Financial Health and Valuation

• Balance Sheet and Debt: IQE’s debt levels and cash flow are important to examine, particularly given the high costs of R&D and manufacturing in semiconductors. Excessive debt could be a red flag, while a strong balance sheet would provide stability.
• Valuation: If IQE is trading at a low valuation relative to its earnings potential and the semiconductor sector, it could be undervalued. Look at metrics like the P/E ratio, price-to-sales ratio, and compare with peers.

5. Risks and Considerations

• Reliance on Key Customers: IQE may rely on a small number of large customers, which can add risk if any of these clients reduce their orders.
• Technological Risks: Semiconductor technology evolves rapidly. If new materials or methods outperform compound semiconductors, IQE could be at a disadvantage.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/10/2024 12:57

mw16 - quite!

If this drops another two or three pence, I might even top up.

History suggests the share price usually stages some form of recovery after falling over 50%. Only problem is, we’ve never experienced a sustained recovery in recent years. Just a series of false dawns, followed by further slumps.

I kinda feel the only way I now stand any chance of recouping my investment here (currently deep under water) is by trading it.

But it’s certainly not for the faint-hearted. You could have taken the same view little more than a month ago at a tad over 19p, only to see it fall around 20% more.

[mw16] 25/10/2024 11:23

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[lord loads of lolly] 25/10/2024 10:37

colsmith - though I haven't done it myself recently, IQE would have been a GREAT trading stock this year if you'd bought any time before early April and sold any time before early September.

[colsmith] 25/10/2024 09:48

MW - RE Their products at that time were relevant."

I guess this is the question. If being optimistic there's a need, by a large market, for semis that are: energy efficient (against silicon), immune to radiation (presumably ,mainly for military stuff) and high frequency capability. Or none of that applies and its no better than silicon. If compound has the big market and advantages its merely a time thing and for compound generally that tech will take the market; whether IQE is best placed remain to be seen. So a believer will wait and see, it doesn't currently seem to be a trading stock.

[mw16] 25/10/2024 08:32

They had increasing profits from 2015 until 2018. Their products at that time were relevant.If their current products were truly innovative they would command a price that would generate a profit but they aren't.

[lord loads of lolly] 24/10/2024 22:24

alotto - you’re simply wrong when you say “this company has yet to make profits”.

In recent years, sure. But that’s not the same thing.

[guildedge] 24/10/2024 20:03

For Marlborough they show number of shares and they are part of Canaccord so will still hold most of the 120m shares or so.

If the bigger trades today was Canaccord them I would expect another RNS soon.
1.18m and 1.16m at 15p today. 289k and 461k earlier in the day at 15p or there about too. Nearly 3m between the 4 trades.

Canaccord need to sell about 6-7m shares from their last notification to reach 11.99%. You would think they would be close now. Same would be true of any buyer here who is over 3%.

Still not sure what Citigroup is doing with their 3-4% here.

The fact that daily trades are edging to 4-5m now is probably a good sign. If this was to hit 10p that would not be happening. Which means 12-13p is probably unlikely and overkill if it happned.

Maybe 15p is a good entry point but the risk of 1-2p pending on the seller in background. Where to buy on a falling share? With Aim atn times best to avoid.

[alotto] 24/10/2024 14:34

Capital halved for those who rushed to buy in the 30s.
This company has yet to make profits, yet, people commit money to it.

[scrawny dawny] 24/10/2024 14:23

At this rate we will be at 14.xx by the close....

[lord loads of lolly] 24/10/2024 14:14

hannath - it would be interesting to know the number of IQE shares they now hold.

Presumably their top 10 is calculated on value alone. In which case, IQE's near-halving of its share price over the last 6 months could be wholly to blame.

Might actually be they haven't reduced at all. Just that half the value of Marlborough's IQE holding has gone up in smoke (geddit?!)

[hannath] 24/10/2024 10:10

As mentioned in my post 5201, Marlborough Spec Sits fund had IQE as a top 10 holding with 1.95% (655m). They are no longer showing in the top 10 so either reduced or ditched ☹️

[boboty] 23/10/2024 16:42

Dishonest lts is doing it again. Who know if Canacord is selling all of it's holding of iqe. We only know they have sold about 1% of the 13% they held and we know because of their rns. Unless lts has other information that he/she can share it is just speculation that canacord selling up. Iqe is a very illiquid share and small volumes of sales or purchases wildly affect the price. Volumes at the moment are between one and five million shares that represents between about 0.1 and 0.5% of the total share capital. The point is don't let the share price be the story - (although painful if you need to sell now) - and act like lemmings - because if there is value you will lose out when real new about stuff other than just share price.

[guildedge] 23/10/2024 15:44

15.22p UT. Little or no resistance at 15p. Volume not even 2m today.

[crosswires] 23/10/2024 12:55

Yes Sally that’s circa correct re paper loss. I try not to look at profits or losses until I sell (which I won’t be doing anytime soon clearly!)

As I say mothballing this until we have a resolution one way or another to if Americo has any impact on the business that amounts to sustainable growth and profits. Currently it’s clear that he hasn’t yet, he claims he is putting IQE into a position where this will come BUT the market doesn’t believe him, we should know in another 12-18 months one way or another.

[longtallsally] 23/10/2024 08:27

It is disappointing that Cannacord is unwinding their large position, impossible to tell if it’s a change of heart or if they realise the turnaround is far enough away that they have time to buy back before the next rise. If March earnings don’t show any meaningful uptick in fortunes then we might essentially have 9-12 months of similar share price levels. The analysts predictions for next FY are hardly very encouraging.

Crosswires, I think in mentally mothballing the investment is wise to some degree although you must be circa £250k down from your holding, surely being blind to such a loss is never wise?

[lord loads of lolly] 23/10/2024 07:02

Any significant fund buys/sells would automatically trigger a TR1. We don’t have to wait for a fund update to know that.

[guildedge] 22/10/2024 15:49

15.56UT price from 16.34p openings. Just over 4m shares traded.

Apart from the blip at 16p where it shot up to 19.74p this has been a sliding share ever since.

Still unlcear if Canaccord top sliced to buy back later or are clearing. Just feels like a number of funds gave IQE a second chance but are now wanting out.

Of course once these sellers clear you would think the share price would rebound. It does not feel like we are close to that right now.

They are losing a 10-15m a year right now. They can't maintain that for 2-3 years. They need to go big or go small and slashed costs to the bone. I think GAN will happen just not sure if their other sales can be maintained. They need some good new. Car battery production news would help.

Have to wait for the end of the month for IFSL Marlborough Global Innovation Fund update. They bought up to October 2023. See if they still hold when the new accounts are released.

[longtallsally] 22/10/2024 15:27

The fact that even back near Covid onset meltdown market distress levels there are no insiders is a worry. Does it look so bad internally that the “insiders̶1; can’t see what Americo suggests is coming to prosper down the line? If they can’t see it and/or don’t believe Americo’s confidence it doesn’t look good does it?

[crosswires] 22/10/2024 14:31

I won’t buy any more at the moment, this share is heavily under selling pressure, no telling where that may lead.

I have essentially moth balled this investment in my mind.

Telling that even down here zero insiders have confidence to buy.

[longtallsally] 22/10/2024 13:55

Looks like your 15p target is coming Crosswires. Still planning in topping up?