Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[lord loads of lolly] 18/8/2024 08:25

Lumentum’s Q4 results beat expectations and the share price rose accordingly.

It mirrors IQE to some extent. Heavily loss-making, share price going nowhere fast in recent years, pinning future hopes on AI transceivers (& EML/CW chips in LITE’s case).

It wouldn’t surprise me if Sweenoid told us Lumentum’s results show they’ve turned a corner & the read across with IQE is plain for all to see.

Personally, I’d wait for IQE’s own outlook statement - and more importantly, tangible evidence in the form of significantly higher sales & profits - before jumping to any conclusions.

[bing_b] 15/8/2024 18:11

Lumentum Q4 results and outlook appear to be positive for IQE? Would appreciate the views of those more technically aware ... I'm a bit out of practice these days 🙂

[lord loads of lolly] 14/8/2024 08:35

LTS - my advice would be not to buy more until there's concrete evidence IQE has sustainably turned a corner.

Of course, this means missing out on any potential early rise. But there have been so many false dawns & missed forecasts with this company, it's by no means certain the uplift will ever materialise.

My own strategy was not to add unless the share price sank below 12p (at which point even I'd consider it oversold). It looks like this trigger won't be met. But you only have to go back to October 2023 for the share price to have closed below 14p. So you never know.

I'm not bothered, as I've a decent holding here anyway and there are far less traumatic companies to invest in! That said, I do think things will look rosier by 2027. Nowhere near 3x current revenues or even 30% GM. But significantly up on current levels. That's the only reason I haven't sold out long ago.

[longtallsally] 14/8/2024 07:20

At this stage the market are not expecting out performance and neither am I. Would be 99% sure that IQE hit “guided range” and am also expecting not much excitement on the forward guidance front either.

Re buying more, yes low 20s would be my advice , mid to high 20s is probably fair value right now.

[guildedge] 13/8/2024 21:52

Brokers currently predict 183m for 2026. So they would need to double revenue in the following year to do that in 2027. So far the brokers seem to be downgrading these figure every few months. Before the big downturn in 2023 they kept slashing their predictions. One reduction this year.

IQE needs to start doing a lot more than just trying to regain lost market share. Or clearing inventory in the supply channel. This has been the story of the last 12-18 months.

[votiem] 13/8/2024 17:35

Well - some thoughts before I hit the swimming pool accompanied by a jug of sangria - 30C here in North Norfolk.. 1. AL did make that 3X prediction by 2027 and he'l be held to that. 2. Next month sees earnings and they must meet or exceed expectations or there'll be another share price downturn. 3. Can anyone enlighten me please... have read IQE 8" chips have relevance to power- sw
itching applications. What power-switching stuff?? (I can be simple.) Thanks, Mark. And p.s.... who now has an entry point if we dip further, 23-27p???

[crosswires] 12/8/2024 13:29

Yep it’s a credibility issue one way or another for IQE and Americo. Forget 3x because I don’t see that happening, but if substantial revenue and margin progress has not been made by 2027, it’s hard to see how they won’t be considered as failing.

[lord loads of lolly] 12/8/2024 13:06

The difference this time is that Americo put his neck on the line with his 2027 guidance. And he has backed it up to an extent with significant skin in the game.

Few if any think he'll come close. But unless the numbers have improved significantly by then, why would any investors stick around? It's kind of last chance saloon for the company (& for his career at IQE I'd say).

[tradertrev] 12/8/2024 11:28

Eventually the long term becomes the mid term, which becomes the short term, which might actually happen. Here's to continuing optimism!

[mw16] 12/8/2024 11:15

They are not a mid term punt. They are a very long to infinity punt.People have been posting the mid term thing for 10 years on this BB.

[longtallsally] 12/8/2024 07:35

Just under a calendar month to go until earnings. The forward guidance is going to be important and crucial for the direction of the share price for the rest of the year.

[crosswires] 05/8/2024 12:07

I shan’t repost the end of year share price predictions for a while either…

[longtallsally] 05/8/2024 09:08

Fortunately most on here are aware that IqE is a mid to long term turnaround not short term so none are surprised that we’re back in the 20s. Such a heavy tech run up was always going to mean at some point a sharp correction

[hannath] 05/8/2024 08:46

Tech is certainly taking a hammering and x5 weeks to St Ledger day …. It’s time to hold your nerve, don’t panic and stay in ready for the bounce. 😀👍

[longtallsally] 05/8/2024 07:09

Could be another tough week, we will probably wish we sold pre summer and bought back later as the old adage goes!

[lord loads of lolly] 04/8/2024 21:52

alotto - different markets often value the same company (or same type of company) very differently.

It’s well known, for example, that Nasdaq P/E valuations for tech companies tend to be significantly higher than in the UK. How else do you explain Arm’s recent decision to relinquish its London listing altogether in favour of New York?

This has nothing to do with Ponzi schemes & everything to do with global variation.

In terms of your recent posts, the only thing I agree with you about is that IQE needs to grow its revenues & margin if it’s to boost the share price sustainably.

[alotto] 03/8/2024 23:03

Lord I assure you the lotto is still here with me.
Serious investors buy or create a company to profit from the company'a earnings.
The sale of the company may come at a later time for a variety of reasons. But if the company does not make profits, and you try to increase its market call by promoting it or looking for a dual listing it becomes a Ponzi scheme. We all know how Ponzi schemes end up (e.g. tulips, meme coins and at some point Bitcoin too)
I'm not saying IQE is a Ponzi, just saying that share price appreciation unsupported by earnings is speculation, speculation can come to a bad ending.
I like IQE but the market is not proven to be there for its products.

[picobird] 03/8/2024 22:37

Master RSI

Thanks for the chart. We need a TA analyst on this board. Nowadays all the charts are done for us, so not so many peeps can put a chart together.
BritishBulls is a good site.
I think ‘fingers’; is retired now :(

[master rsi] 02/8/2024 22:16

Haven't you noticed yet? the BAAstard - Lolly - posts are all negative, especially mine post when I said " Time for the TURN UP after retrace" and the share price did, but the BAAstard never admitted that, IQE went from 29.525 to 36p since, and yet 10 days ago ( it was 31.50p at the time ) the BAAstard was talking at LSE about being lower, than my 29.525p selection.

[lord loads of lolly] 02/8/2024 21:35

alotto - think you’ve totally lost the plotto when you say “investors don't buy low to sell high. That's speculation. Investors buy a company to profit from earning not from disposal of asset (the shares).”

What ARE you talking about?

[crosswires] 02/8/2024 16:40

Don’t think so check out the Nadaq and SoX. Rotation out of tech stocks, although with such a large pullback from last months high at some point it will get attractive long term again.

[alotto] 02/8/2024 16:15

lord loads of lolly, investors don't buy low to sell high. That's speculation. Investors buy a company to profit from earning not from disposal of asset (the shares).
I wouldn't like to set up a business and make losses just to deceive the market with unachieved targets and hope to profit from the disposal of the business. Market valuation is unimportant if the company is not valuable (not earning enough) to justify market valuation.
Regarding Americo, he believed in IQE potential and his own ability to bring a turnaround. That's why he invested in the company. We all make mistakes and so did he. There is no evidence he will triple revenue in the given timeframe (I remember he said 2027), possibly he will manage to do it in a longer timeframe but how can we trust his timeline estimates now?
It's wait and watch game at the moment, or probably a game for insiders.

[zingaro] 02/8/2024 15:49

I guess that todays drop is partly related to the government eliminating the previous governments fund for AI computing (and the Edinburgh supercomputer) - it is seen as technology averse.

[guildedge] 02/8/2024 15:35

I tend to ignore the people marking down posts. Likely the same few people doing it.

Technically the TW company is already included in IQE value. If it releases capital to help the balance sheet here that is not a bad thing. If IQE are maintaining overall control they may not get more than 7.5m?

Seems to be pressure in background forcing share lower here. Even with the flotation news which I thought was positive. IQE is a forecast to lose 15-16m this year. So valuation will always be a difficult one to judge.

[lord loads of lolly] 02/8/2024 14:45

alotto - not sure I understand ANY of your last post. If the company's valuation (i.e. market cap) is increased, then as far as shareholders are concerned, their holding just became more valuable.

Your final comments about Americo overestimating demand yet having skin in the game seem self-contradictory. Why would Americo have invested a fair amount of his own money in IQE if he didn't believe in its potential? He may just have a slightly longer timeframe in mind than you.