Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[alotto] 18/7/2024 07:35

Lolly I was invested in recent times. Bought in at 22p and sold just short of 30p. I was expecting significant increase in top and bottom line in the last TU, with the AI and chip craze. Maybe the market is not mature yet for the adoption of CS, who knows if it will ever be.
I'm waiting to see concrete addition to revenue, if ever, before buying in again.

[lord loads of lolly] 18/7/2024 00:56

alotto - according to you, it seems nothing IQE touches has alotto potential.

Are you actually invested here? If so, presumably you still see some scope for a positive re-rate. And if not, why bother with the constant negative posts?

[alotto] 17/7/2024 17:46

Not very encouraging... It seems the lead time to see vast scale use of CS (and IQE technology that concerns us) is quite far off...

[provonar] 17/7/2024 16:46

Thanks reeltime and Snaffleclamp for the links on Ultraram,

I've found a paper on the technology that goes into a lot more detail:



Although this is still a few years out, it's an exciting development as it's breaking new ground for compoound semiconductors - there are no CS memory chips on the market; all of them are silicon.

The fact that prototype results are already demonstrating multiple characteristics simultaneously that silicon simply can't do, is exactly why CS devices are (and will continue to be) a growth area. This device promises to deliver high speed (important for keeping up with modern processors), low power (obviously important for rising energy costs), and being non-volatile (i.e. if the power to your computer shuts off, the memory remains as-is and you can pick up where you left off once power is restored).

The paper makes clear that it works by having a compound semi 'island' that can either be pumped full of or drained of electrons to represent 0 and 1 states of the memory bit (each island will be one bit). The pumping/draining has to be 'active' in the sense that a (low) voltage needs to be applied to carry out the action. Without that activation, the island just sits there and no electrons can leave or enter - which is what makes it non-volatile. It's a very cunning little beastie.

FIgure 5 of the paper goes into some detail of the manufacturing, but the process there is on the lithography stage, rather than the epitaxy one. IQE would produce the layered CS epiwafers that would then flow into the process described in Figure 5.

IQE's input to commercialise these components will be crucial, as their expertise will be needed to get the wafer size up to 8" (or more, eventually). The further lithography work, although complex, doesn't look like it will need much heavy development (as opposed to, say, microLEDs where there is a 'pick-and-place' issue with actually assembling screens efficiently with so many tiny pixels).

So, this development is very nice to see as it broadens the potential client base and moves into technical territory where CS epiwafers haven't reached so far, thus increasing the market breadth, too. As stated, though, this will be some years off with a number of qualifications throughout the supply-chain needed and probably quite a bit more prototyping - which is probably why IQE aren't announcing much as it's still too early days to be commercially relevant.

However, considering the handset market has been picking up for 3 quarters in a row, I'd hope we get a somewhat encouraging trading statement any time now...

[wigoyle] 16/7/2024 22:30

I wouldn’t expect an announcement from IQE about this. Feels like too small an amount.

[sweenoid] 16/7/2024 17:20

Thanks Snaffly
Very very interesting and yes it’s surprising that IQE haven’t commented yet

Worth looking at the Quinas website and particularly this article that shows how the ‘industry’ views this start up



One of the quoted companies is IQE’s group technology director
Dr John Iwan Davies



S

[snaffleclamp] 16/7/2024 16:47

Thanks for the post reeltime very interesting.


Strange no comments from IQE?

[crosswires] 16/7/2024 13:30

I mean it’s a tiny award but of course better than a slap in the face with a wet fish. Let’s hope it leads to something bigger down the line

[reeltime] 16/7/2024 12:37

Over £1M for global semiconductor firm IQE to enable industrialisation of ULTRARAM
15 July 2024 10:16

'It is estimated that the global memory chip market will be worth about US$320 billion by 2030 but the UK currently has no stake in it'.

hxxps://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/over-1m-for-global-semiconductor-firm-iqe-to-enable-industrialisation-of-ultraram

[longtallsally] 16/7/2024 06:53

The uber positive predictions in Crosswires end of year post are going to need rising revenues pretty soon otherwise they will be out by some margin. I think it’s entirely possible that even my prediction looks too adventurous.

[guildedge] 15/7/2024 22:33

The broker page has been updated. It's hopefully an error but the forcast for this year is now 142.59m for 2024. (This is the average of all the broker numbers) This is down about 4.7m on previous week. The loss figure for 2024 is exactly the same. 2025/2026 figures unchanged.

Waiting on closing statement report. I guess circa 26th July for this. Which means figures are in line with Broker numbers. At the AGM they were clear revenue was now rising following the bad figures for 2023.

[lord loads of lolly] 15/7/2024 16:03

crosswires - thanks again.

IQE would have been a major winner for me if it had risen just another 10-20p back in 2017 & triggered my limit sales orders. Sadly, I was slightly too greedy & have paid a heavy price. I’m still cautiously optimistic I’ll at least recoup my full outlay within the next couple of years, but have still potentially incurred a large opportunity cost.

My winners have been SMT & to a lesser extent Fundsmith Equity (largely down to fortunate (prescient!?) timing. Terry Smith has gone off the boil in recent years though, so that one’s on watch. SMT fell heavily post-pandemic but is showing signs of life again now. I also have a decent holding in HAT (pawnbrokers), which has served me well by trading in & out periodically. Plus it pays a decent dividend, unlike IQE.

[crosswires] 15/7/2024 13:32

IQE is by far my largest shareholding, I have some others and a semi conductor ETF but most of my other investments (and by far my most successful investments over the past 15 years) are vintage watch related.

[lord loads of lolly] 15/7/2024 13:15

Crosswires - thanks. Sounds like a real conviction stake there, unless you’ve a very high value share portfolio in total.

Good luck anyhow.

FWIW, my total IQE holding is around 220,000 shares (all ISA based). But at a much higher average of c. 62p. So far it has been my worst investment decision by a country mile.

[crosswires] 14/7/2024 19:54

Sure, 1m shares at an average of just under 35p. 700k in an ISA and the rest not.

First tranche in 2016 at 15p, more at 18p, another chunk in the 50-70p range later and then more recently in and around 19-30p.

[lord loads of lolly] 14/7/2024 19:15

bbonsall - many thanks for letting us know your recent vote of confidence - & price paid.

Anyone else care to divulge?

[longtallsally] 13/7/2024 21:50

Assuming yep, we’re as usual doing a large amount of that.

[bbonsall] 13/7/2024 21:19

Alotti
All share investments are gambling.
Llol

In answer to your question. I have been heavily invested here for a long time. I hung on too long after the 2017 peak. Two weeks ago I sold £30k of another holding to increase my investment in IQE by £30k at a share price of 31.5p

[alotto] 13/7/2024 20:00

Nonsense, wishful predictions.
You can't even tell if contracts are rolling in, sales may be still stagnating by the next trading update. There is nothing back up any share price prediction. At this point it is nothing more than gambling.

[lord loads of lolly] 13/7/2024 19:02

My question would be how many of those predicting a far higher share price by end December are actually taking advantage NOW & piling in / adding aggressively?

I suspect some, but probably not that many. In which case you have to wonder whether the loftier predictions are anything more than wishful thinking.

Maybe some of those forecasting >40p would be willing to give an honest update on their recent / imminent trades & prices paid / targeted?

[bbonsall] 13/7/2024 10:52

Assuming there will be some news giving a sniff of increasing sales relating to AI applications there will be a lot of people piling in. There is a lot of hype (justified or otherwise) surrounding AI and even the slightest hint of IQE benefitting will propel the share price rapidly, as happened in 2017 when IQE was first linked with Apple. Therefore my share price prediction is 85p

[votiem] 12/7/2024 18:52

I predict 50p and will be very happy to see that. Incidentally Hannath, very well done. Excellent timing.

[crosswires] 12/7/2024 00:06

Updated (see below), I would imagine if the bookies were giving odds, yours and Nicks would be favourites. As we stand today there is little hard evidence to suggest major re rates to the share price

Will be interesting to see the outcome

£0.38 - nickwild
£0.39 - Lordloadsoflolly
£0.46 - LongTallSally
£0.48 - technowiz1
£0.50 - Bing_b
£0.50 - Votiem
£0.51 - Crosswires
£0.52 - jimboyce
£0.55 - Tomduck
£0.55 - Amishp67
£0.58 - JamesRowe
£0.65 - Snaffleclamp
£0.68 - Spursspurs
£0.72 - Hutchmeister
£0.75 - Shrimper2
£0.78 - whackett
£0.80 - Sweenoid
£0.80 - Hannath
£0.85 - bbonsall
£0.85 - 1ultimate
£0.85 - Dockenfielan
£0.94 - Boleyn
£1.20 - 46maxon

[lord loads of lolly] 11/7/2024 19:28

crosswires - late to the party I know. But if you're still updating the year end sweepstake, my guess would be 39p.

I'm not expecting much more from this year than matching previous guidance, which would still make IQE loss-making. Albeit hopefully moving in the right direction by December.

[longtallsally] 11/7/2024 11:41

Nick, sounds good right? But Apples iPhone sales haven’t helped the share price or boosted IQEs revenue and profits since 2017. I suspect for the share price to rise much we need new supply contracts and exponential growth in existing ones to move the dial.

GaN growth from the two new machines is what we’re looking for imo.