Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[regasclockwork] 09/12/2018 18:01

william_quinn6 Dec '18 - 10:06 - 23434 of 23488

"Aphro is no longer with us. He choked on something." -End-

That was William's witty response [a thumb-up from me] to me asking APHRO if he would be kind enough to give us an update on how the 'Elliott Wave' is shaping up in these turbulent times. The only reply was something like, "Get a life" [not verbatim].

Whatever APHRO could well be suffering from a bout of 'rumble tummy' as there is a lot of it about. As we know, Sweeney appears to have only just recovered from a bout of food poisoning, possibly due to trying to digest too many cheap chips?

Talking of food, reminds me of the time Peter O'Toole [of Lawrence of Arabia fame] was dining out in a posh restaurant and during the meal he had a massive heart attack [nothing to do with the food].

As he was being carried out through the front entrance on a stretcher, he shouted to the incoming diners, "AVOID THE FISH!!"

[regasclockwork] 09/12/2018 17:03

I had a bit of luck around 10 days ago when the share price was 75p and on its way up to the recent 81.9p.

I transferred some dosh [on the button] from my TSB to Barclays 'Smart Investor' account so that I could carry out a little top-up within a few minutes of transfer. Although it left my TSB account within seconds, it took 9-days to appear on my 'Not So Smart Investor' account.

I complained bitterly [by phone] to Barclays and pointed out that the share price was rising as we were speaking.

They offered me £50 compensation and the chance to buy at 76p. I declined the latter, but took the £50. The 'bit of luck' that I mentioned at the start is that I can now buy at 72p [Friday close].

I think I'll hold fire with my 'top-up' until Tuesday when IQE's update is due and the perhaps more important Brexit debate is resolved.

I'll risk having to pay more for those shares, but I'm talking about peanuts here compared to some of you chaps who buy/sell 100's of thousands at the blink of an eyelid. Good luck to 'All Creatures Great and Small'. "I know my place".

[richardc77] 09/12/2018 16:16

Adventurous, from what I can see it’s a combination of people who have no idea about the market and/or IQE, or just want to tell us that the company is doomed whatever. I tend to ignore both.

[adventurous] 09/12/2018 14:35

I am puzzled why some poster on this board, seem overly concerned about the smartphone market slowing down or stagnating without acknowledging that should sales stagnate over the next couple of years, the revenue IQE would receive from that percentage of their business is forecast to more than double, probably triple.

[sf5] 09/12/2018 10:09

There's a curious little bullet point in the BMW powertrain schematic near the end of this article
hxxps://www.wired.co.uk/article/bmw-electric-car-powertain-tesla
It reads "New semi-conductor technologies (SiC, GaN)" Timescale looks to be 2021+, so presumably 4 years or more before meaningful revenues to suppliers.
Also the reference to Volvo's LIDAR with 250m range. Likewise no indication of any mass production timeframe.

[cotswoldsparky] 08/12/2018 11:14

Plenty of bickering stil going on, I see...few pence off the share price and it all seems to kick off again

Anyway to get back to fundamentals, mainly for diplomat and any others who want to find a connection between IQE and VRS, this may be of interest



Many, many years to go and many challenges to overcome before it becomes a reality (if it ever does) so don't get your hopes up yet :-)!

BTW, VRS could provide both the graphene (nanene) and hexagonal boron nitride (hexotene).

As always, DYOR.

CS

[richardc77] 08/12/2018 10:32

Tom, engaging is to a degree futile, the only thing that matters is the share price in our time horizons, for me at least 2 yrs. I’m comfortable that the risks are in my favour, if some are not then this share isn’t for you of course, or shares in general at this time ;)

[tomduck] 08/12/2018 09:02

Nothing new this week from last just stock market turmoil, trade wars and brexit. People need to stop worrying and focus on the mid to long term, 2-5 years, this stock will provide stellar returns from here as it frankly already has for those of us who are in since below 20p.

[sailastra] 08/12/2018 00:49

Lucky Mouse As any sailing man knows the prevailing wind is always predictable so relax and await the norm....Trust me!

[sailastra] 08/12/2018 00:42

clearly , which is why we are where we are...In the dark. Hence the decline in the share price. Is the fall in orders temporary or permanent????

[grity] 08/12/2018 00:41

They Will & He who Dares Wins ! Keep the faith. It was a up day in all the turmoil . The direction of the wind will change sooner or later . Glalh .

[sailastra] 08/12/2018 00:30

Lucky mouse, makes interesting top down comments. We want bottom up here i.e Iqe and it's technology.
Kazoom
I have just read your post above, first time I have bothered to read your input, sorry I didn't reference you

Without surprise you are right, IQE need to make profits. You don't need to think it, that is manifest,!!!!

[kazoom] 08/12/2018 00:05

lord loads of lolly

kazoom - I hold IQE and think your summary is pretty fair. Just wonder where the <2p EPS figure for 2018 comes from? (I know 2018 EBITDA is now forecast at around £31M)

Thanks lord loads of lolly, just my view but it is an honestly held one.

Re the EPS forecast my workings were that the £31m EBIDTA compared with a previous forecast of £44m and that the £13m reduction must fall straight through to PBT which I worked through to an EPS of 1.8p.

Shortly after I did the calculations Edison produced a new note concluding much the same.



Which gives a 2018 PE of c. 40x

Strangely though if you go through Edison's homepage this report does not show up, not sure why that is.


Oh & sailastra,

I'm not sure if you are addressing your comments to me? But to be clear, I am not negative at all in the long term (except in the sense of now being more cautious about wanting to validate the "jam" that will be coming tomorrow).

My "bear case", if that's what I inadvertently made, is simply that the 2018 results released in March will show :

> Declining profit and EPS.
> A P/E ratio of 40x (current price & based on the above.
> Poor Cashflow (I haven't actually done the numbers here, but the reduced EBITDA above will largely drop to cashflow.

Those that have read up on IQE can explain away all of those points, but it won't be hard imho for the shorters to construct an easier to understand narrative for the wider market.

I think it will take actual booked profit and banked cash improvements to change the mood here now, so imho (and I might change my mind!) a postive H1-19 and FY-19 looks the earliest to see a sustained change of mood.

[sailastra] 07/12/2018 23:55

I am not suggesting that those in trouble should hold on. My average price is way below here. I am cashed up and lucky in that, I have not been tempted to buy by the resent falls but will bide my time. We are devoid of news. Never a good time to decide
especially given that news is likely like everything today....To be fake.

[sailastra] 07/12/2018 23:36

There are plenty of reasons why the share price has fallen but they are due to short term overvaluation. What interests me is your long term negativity and your understanding as to why the future is negative. To date you have collectively made no case other than scepticism.
The future of this company remains a few years ahead, profits will only and have only ever been expected some years away. It is called the future. I have held for some years in anticipation.. World markets are in turmoil for sure. And the good, the bad and the ugly are getting hammered. I intend to hold. And will buy more when the uptrend returns...

[hoverflyman] 07/12/2018 23:21

Lucky Mouse you’re a bit late to help me with this share but over on VRS we’ll all be getting a bit over excited in say 2-3 months. Come over and see if you can save any of us then, we’ll be in the mood for a good laugh :)

[lord loads of lolly] 07/12/2018 23:19

kazoom - I hold IQE and think your summary is pretty fair. Just wonder where the <2p EPS figure for 2018 comes from? (I know 2018 EBITDA is now forecast at around £31M)

[sailastra] 07/12/2018 23:08

I would like one of you to articulate the bear case. Rather than repeat a no can do. What do you understand about the negative?

Peace by peace do your best, I suspect you have nothing material.