Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 09/10/2014 09:28

Trav, even if we could only use half our water allocation, that would still be a very nice earner for us......but bear in mind that many of our LOIs are from non-fracking companies like fire departments etc......and that costs will be lower per barrel for a large permit like ours, so customers will be more likely to come to us than the small existing water operators......etc etcDYOR NAI

[trav5] 09/10/2014 09:26

SG
Very helpful I will draw my conclusions.

[superg1] 09/10/2014 09:20

Trav

DYOR research, that's been explained enough times.

[trav5] 09/10/2014 09:13

Views would be appreciated on the article in the Footpeck Journal (link to article in post 8360 on the other thread). The basic thrust of the article is falling demand for water in Montana increasing demand in North Dakota due to the number of wells decreasing in Montana and increasing in ND; which is leading to current water providers in Montana being only able use to half their allocation of water.

[superg1] 09/10/2014 08:17

Any thoughts on Chile anyone.

I smell some problems coming with the weak peso on the strikes front.

With the weak peso costs of food, fuel and the basics are rising quickly. Chile workers seem to strike all the time over pay, so it shouldn't be too long before they get miffed at the erosion of their disposable income.

Interest rates look set to fall a bit more, but they see the turn as next April.

companies will be forced to raise the minimum wage, but I can see then going static or minimum rises on anything above that. That would surely cause anger as the minimum wage jobs close the gap. 25% minimum wage rise over the next 18 months (ouch).

I'm sure UK businesses would love that one.

EDIT

The figures. Minimum wages in July 13 was 193,000, by the time we get to Jan 16 it will be 250,000 pesos per month. An overall rise of around 30%.

[superg1] 09/10/2014 08:07

Gad

21.7 was a typo, 21.6 has been the repeat rate as you point out.

Having posted that someone has told me my thoughts are right and the discount, Cosayach apparently have sent some that way too, but as we know they well hit by the well closures in May.

It explains that disparity in prices. I'm also told in H2 last year Asia reduced iodine imports. As we know India imports fell off a cliff at that time. That is why Sirocco stopped supplying, their buyers dried up.

This H2 India imports have taken off, probably supported by the cheap iodine RB supply. Obviously not all importers are getting it as some pay much higher from Japan.

On cash, I have noted RB have that $15 mill sat in the parts shed, it will never go in and the ALP will never start again.

Q4 tends to be the iodine drop off period, as reported by IOF in recent news.

RB/Sirocco must be near it's end, they are in serious debt, and the backers took one look and walked.

Many thought the Lundin's would bail it out. However none of the RB investors seemed to spot they have just made their biggest ever acquisition for a copper mine in Chile.

The RB team already have their escape up and running, it's called orca gold.

[captain_kurt] 09/10/2014 07:46

October 2, 2014

Oklahoma’s oil and gas boom has overshadowed another boom taking place beneath the sagebrush country of northwest Oklahoma — iodine.

Oklahoma is the nation’s sole producer of iodine, with processing plants concentrated in northwest Oklahoma.

“It’s a result of natural gas production,” said Stan Krukowski, with the Oklahoma Geological Survey at the University of Oklahoma. “The deep wells are bringing up iodine-charged brine water.”

Oklahoma’s iodine comes from salt deposits more than a mile beneath the surface.

British-based Iofina has three iodine processing plants in Alva along with a plant in Burlington and one in Cherokee, company spokesman Jamie Cornelius said. Japanese-owned Iochem operates a plant in Vici while Woodward Iodine Corp. operates in Woodward.

Oklahoma’s iodine production has positioned the United States to be third in production behind Chile and Japan, according to a 2013 report by the U.S. Geological Survey.

[captain_kurt] 09/10/2014 06:56

News about RB Energy Inc funding issues pinging everywhere this morning

[gadolinium] 08/10/2014 22:54

Under $31/kg sounds like firesale prices to me! Interesting also that it was for 21.7 MT,(edit 21.6) a recurring order through this year.

[che7win] 08/10/2014 21:40

Superg,
I wonder if RB can continue with its iodine operations for now or have they completely drained their working capital?

Kudos for your research on them, who would have thought lithium would sink them, really feel sorry for shareholders there.

Ps: DOW finished +274.

[superg1] 08/10/2014 20:54

Sirocco/RB and it's iodine selling story.

Gad I think we can say with some degree of likelihood that Sirocco has been the seller of that 99.5 iodine to India, details below.

2013

Q1 Iodine produced 363mt sold 272mt.

Q2 Prod. 387 mt sold 259 mt

Q3 Prod, 320 mt sold zero.

Q4 figure not declared.

Inventory Q1 to Q3 592 mt, Claimed inventory in 2014 pre sale is near 800 mt, so they must have produced about 200 mt in Q4.


2014

Q1 Prod 318mt sold 256mt

Q2 Prod 314mt sold 518mt.


H1 2013 sold 531mt none in H2 and all of H1 near the same as Q2 this year.

H1 2014 sold 774mt.

On the India price point. We are told there is an over-supply, yet Sirocco sold at a higher rate than they have ever achieved.

There can logically be only one way they did that, and that was to sell at discount prices.

For Q1 this year they state they sold at an average $38 per kg. Prices then were well in the 40's.

For Q2 they show an average of $36, when at the start of the quarter some prices were still in the 40's.

We know RB became absolutely desperate for cash. Gad found an entry in Iodine immports, it's generally listed as iodine min purity 99.5. Different descriptions are used but under that one it seems very cheap compared to multiple other entries for the same product.

Since the RB chaos really kicked off, India imports have soared. Today RB made that announcement. In the last few days the India import site has shown two shipments under that title for 2 lots of 21,700 at under $31 per kg.

Other entries show the 35 to 38 range.

It therefore seems that RB in their desperation over the last 9 months have been selling at 15 to 20% discounts to get rid of the inventory, and the rate accelerated in Q2 and has probaly continued into Q3.

It's the only way they could sell it and they are desperate.

It seems likley the inventory has dropped by a good amount in Q3.

The cheap iodine supplier is on it's last legs.

[che7win] 08/10/2014 19:26

Dow up 200, really rocking on now.

[che7win] 08/10/2014 19:18

wooly,
Think that was indmin talking a load of rubbish about derivatives.

DOW now up 180, all over the place.

[woolybanana] 08/10/2014 16:54

Some time ago, IOF were accused of dumping iodine cheap. Could it have been the other bunch dumping on the market?

[superg1] 08/10/2014 16:43

Chumbo

Sirocco's production was forecast at 1600mt last year but right as stated on this BB contrary to their claims they shut their Agitating plant down.

That meant a switch to heap leach only which means lower yields. They forecast 1000mt from heap leach.

I will check the exact figures later but they did around 300 mt for Q1 and again for Q2.

However they stopped supplying iodine completely in H2 2013 which was a BS excuse and suspected to be so.

Hence at the start of 2014 they had about 800mt in the inventory and started supplying again. so they supplied nothing in H2 2013, then sold into the market this H1 when the market was on a price slide and over-supply position.

They sold something like 130mt more than they produced in H1 this year, meaning from nothing in H2 2013 to 700 to 800 mt sold in H1 this year. The increase of sales started in Q2.

They announced forward selling of 129 mt to fund the lithium project, and stated iodine sales would fund lithium production.

I'm told a major buyer for them was India last year, but India sales in h2 last year dropped in h2 13 which was said to be the reason they put out the 'we have stopped supplying' rns.

Now this H2 just when RB are deep in the poo, and announce iodine sales will pay for lithium production, India imports took off around the same time with around 600mt imported in Q3.

India was getting some cheap iodine it seemed and my best guess based on all the surrounding circs is that a lot of it came from RB.

We may hear shortly what inventory they have left, it may not be too much.

Either way it seems the iodine mine will close near term.

[nellyb] 08/10/2014 16:33

any sign of scrutable?

[che7win] 08/10/2014 16:32

DOW just risen 100 points in 30 minutes, crazy markets, IOF feels like it wants to go up here.

[che7win] 08/10/2014 16:22

One thing seems strange today, the MMs are keen to accumulate stock, who is the buyer?

Maybe the same buyer as Stena sold to, we seem to have someone after stock here.

[madchick] 08/10/2014 16:20

Thanks for sharing all your research as you've gone along, SG. It looks like things are finally falling into place for IOF with their production hopefully increasing quite substantially now just as other companies are falling and the iodine price hopefully rising.

[chumbo] 08/10/2014 16:00

I have Sirocco's production capacity as circa 1,600 tpa or $64m p/a at $40/kg. That's a reasonable hole in the supply chain if they disappear.

[nellyb] 08/10/2014 15:55

act - you never answered my question - i will put it another way - am i correct in presuming you have made no money on this share.

[rogerbridge] 08/10/2014 15:23

Great news SG, another domino fallen.

[superg1] 08/10/2014 15:14

I don't think they had any spike. I suspect they are the India sellers and providing cheap iodine from their inventory to stay afloat. They released in news that iodine sales would fund lithium production a while back.

They stopped supplying in H2 2013 so they will have been under-cutting others to generate cash, they had no choice.

The India imports took off around the time RB started to fall apart. Those weird disproportionate prices found by Gad may all be down to RB.

[spike_1] 08/10/2014 14:55

IF 'Sorocco' had/has long term supply agreements, I wonder where they will go now, and at what price?

[superg1] 08/10/2014 14:46

Well it's linked to RB and all it's debt. 40 mill needed to just cover near term payments, so the iodine mine should be stuffed too. Sad for the Sirocco investors that ended up stuffed by the move. That said Sirocco wasn't going anywhere. They did have 64 mill in tha bank but link up has destroyed that.

The lithium production increase was just hot air it seems. That side owes around 200mill plus I believe, with various debts.

It seems RB will have been selling iodine to anyone at any price they could get on the inventory side which has helped the price drop. 630mt in the inventory at the end of June, hopefully most of that has gone.

I say that as they reported 36 per kg average in H2 when the early H2 prices were over 40. They must have sold a load under 36, and helped the price drop.

It all looks to be an issue that will come to an end near term. Unfortunate for investors but good for future iodine prices.