Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 10/10/2014 14:20

ACT,

"Arlington Chetwynd Talbot 10 Oct'14 - 14:16 - 25822 of 25822 0 0

Don't talk rubbish!
Either quote from the RNS's or keep quiet."

is that directed to Dr Tom? LOL!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 14:20

Or put it another way... do not believe anything this company say until it has been thoroughly audited.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 14:16

Don't talk rubbish!
Either quote from the RNS's or keep quiet.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 14:14

Yes, but it was Che who's saying this is cash generative, wasn't he? The published numbers do not chime with his view. As for Tom mentioning alterations in cash? He's inexperienced at this level, it's a blunder and I'm sure NOMAD will have a word.

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 14:11

The company have been cutting revenue costs and not spending any significant capex. Mr Big's loan had already come onto the balance sheet in June. If the CEO's reported comments are accurate, then logically the increase in cash reserves must have come from selling iodine, whether produced or inventory?

[naphar] 10/10/2014 14:04

A running commentary telling us cash has gone down in the first half, excluding the new bond, when we know they had high costs which have now been cut back, and still had to pay money on the new plants, is quite frankly pointless and pathetic.

Che may be taking a non RNSd figure, but it has been quoted by the CEO and is in the public domain. Given we are hopefully at a turning point from cash consumption to cash generation, Che's analysis is far more worthwhile imo.

Of course, what we do not know is, has that cash generation come from operations, or changes to the balance sheet (e.g. lower inventories and receivables or higher than usual payables)

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 13:54

No, you cannot pick and choose when to suddenly add $1.3m to the cash because it has to be done on at least a proper published quarterly basis. You do not know the various demands on cash at any given time. A running commentary on cash based on non-RNS'ed accounts is misleading.

[superg1] 10/10/2014 13:48

Jas

All investment advice says any investment should be for a minimum of 5 years.

As for hard numbers. The old JV potential deal on the water permit is there for all to see. Pre news I anticipated they would pursue a JV if possible. In news they declared that.

It's highly probable that such a JV would include a lump sum, up front most likely subject to full award of the permit.

I think such a move is very likely and short term. So potentially 'the market' may get some numbers it likes near term.

The market doesn't get water, it thinks it's lucrative but can't work out the twists.

Things like certain folk going on about a tin shack, 2 pump water depot not selling it's allocation. It can't as the poor truckers would have to queue for hours on end to get their water.

Hal or already linked to IOF, potentially they may well abandon all other supplies in specific areas to commit to the contract and a JV.

Hal resubmitted the loi to IOF as discussed in another post, which shows their interest is current and relevant, not an old letter gathering dust. They went through a hearing and proved to the hearing examiner that the amount they requested will be used. That would have included details of how and why, based on the letters of intent.

I'd like a JV with cash up front on a selfish point of view, to crack on with the iodine side while Chile continues to struggle. Let someone else run the water side and IOF take a revenue from it.

Long term they lose out on revenue, but with that thought process, they could be an iodine, gas, oil, Helium, water supplier, water disposal, SWD operator, water recycling, chemical div and so on.

Iodine is core, and it's going to grow and be needed forever, with very few commercial resources around.

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 13:44

Exactly che7, see 3rd para in my post above.As long as the management deliver in the next 12 months, the 40s will be history... that's the risk... ya pays ya money...

[che7win] 10/10/2014 13:39

Thank you ACT,
there we have it $6.2m cash end of June up to $7.5m now, and Tom mentioned it was growing.

So, we are standing on our own two feet, even with plants not optimised.

Water JV to provide the growth.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 13:33

$2.3m cash end Q1
Recieved $5m cash from Aaron Banks
$6.2m cash end Q2

That's actually a very worrying drop in cash of over $1m in just one quarter once you you exclude the $5m loan.

[che7win] 10/10/2014 13:07

Fest, No need to complicate things for me. The balance sheet is sound. They had $6.3m cash end of June and $7.5m now. On mobile so I can't check exact figures. Inventory was healthy too, again it was looking tight, no problem with sales. Negative for me: they didn't announce growth plans, not even one Mobile which they should be getting out in the field now. Stopping monthly figs just when fracking and oil issues should be diminishing is not good enough, it's the wrong move. Not informing market about water potential, clearly the market needs info.

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 12:42

I am not clear (haven't checked the accounts) whether perhaps some of the cash increase could have come from selling inventory?Mr Market clearly wants to wait and see progress on iodine and water in the next 3 months... which is not surprising I suppose given the wider markets and poor delivery over the last 12-18 months...The key point is that we are operational, producing an in-demand product, some way above breakeven, and face no need for any more placings, no existential risk from massive debts, regulatory change etc. And we have valuable IP. So we are far better than most AIM companies, and I for one am happy to ride out the current choppiness. £55m-odd for the company and its prospects is not expensive IMO.NAI

[festario] 10/10/2014 12:41

Probably not a discussion for here Che, but most of it has come from loans, convertibles etc... and is pending the strategic review outcome, as to where to deploy it. Nuff said for here.

[che7win] 10/10/2014 12:34

Festario,
the cash pile hasn't appeared our of nowhere, it has been churned out by the companies operations - so it has been positive cash flow over summer - whilst spending some capex on finishing plants.

[festario] 10/10/2014 12:30

Che, you are not joking.. it actually does!
A cash pile is not the same as positive cash flow, that is really what is required. Only then can any kind of PE be applied to any company's prospects.
I agree 100% about the monthly updates too. A bad move.

[che7win] 10/10/2014 12:23

Festario,
every time you buy it goes down! (only joking).

Seriously, we ARE CASH generative, our cash has increased $1.25m since June, yet the company mentioned this in passing in Tom interview #2.

They still haven't given us figures (either directly or via brokers) as to how good the water business is!

No broker updates from our house brokers, it's not good enough.

Stopping the monthly updates isn't good enough either.

[festario] 10/10/2014 12:10

Che7win, 'Never dreamt we would be in the 40's'
Yet we are, that is the situation, and will remain the situation until IOF becomes sustainably CASH generative. I keep banging on about this.
Look at QFI today, in a comparable situation as IOF, but getting caned, but wouldn't be if it was creating cash.

If you really feel THAT confident to buy now, but have no clear funds, simply open a CFD or spreadbet. Or sell some other positions.

At the moment, with the markets in real turmoil, I'm taking no action of any kind.

[bogg1e] 10/10/2014 12:10

Che, agreed. Same with QFI, big contracts looming and the share price is where it was a year ago, when the share was far less derisked than now....exactly the same as IOF...which is now hugely derisked. Its almost as if the market still thinks the woes of April apply? As Woody pointed out, FUM is another up and coming good growth prospect thats being hammered in the face of good progress. Its extraordinarily frustrating, but the good side is, if you know your investment, which we are lucky enough to do and which most people dont, then at least we are spared the panic that many must be feeling now.

[che7win] 10/10/2014 11:59

Angel,
the 'typically' gives them the opportunity to announce anytime if they so choose.

Who would have thought that this week you would be able to buy under 50p?

The past two weeks we have had:

results better than realised and cash growing and at $7,500,000 right now.

water application granted and pending public appeal - it wasn't priced in (still isn't)

iodine production in September on two weeks normal production meeting forecasts

Company stating that iodine production increasing over September.

Company restating year end guidance on track

I couldn't work out why we were falling this week, then we hear Stena has offloaded stocks across all their portfolio, including IOF.
Had Stena not sold some, we would have climbed up further on Monday.

It is apparent to me (and I could be wrong) that there have been small sales this week but much bigger buys most days. Some institution has taken stock off Stena and someone has been buying chunks in the background IMHO.

I get the feeling that there are keen buyers, they have unexpectantly been given the opportunity to accumulate with some weak sellers, that's a pity.
Probably a delayed reaction from the company presentations?

The business on the ground has never been stronger, I just hate not being in a position to buy and fund managers being given a gift here.

Never would I have dreamt with all the above news that we would be in the 40's.

[germanicus] 10/10/2014 11:54

Jas, keep the missus sweet - Buy her a new bag & belt................for the Hoover! :)

Gla

G ;-)

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 11:48

I expect the next production update in early Jan, both for Q4 and the whole of the year, hopefully we will have met or exceeded the revised target...Next news probably the Strategic Review?Then (touch wood) the water permit being confirmed?

[orslega] 10/10/2014 11:33

No problem having a joint account, or even a separate account for her, just make sure you hold all the passwords! Job done.

IOF holding well, rest of AIM looking grim today, to be expected.

[jasisdad] 10/10/2014 11:26

Orslega lol. That made me laugh and also made me realise the errors of my ways of setting up a joint account!!!!