Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[rogerbridge] 06/10/2014 21:10

I agree that some II's and commentators do not understand the water business.
This is why they are mulling it over before diving in. Some were burnt when the share price dropped and will not want to take the risk again (DD) in these volatile markets.
We will be rewarded but I am taking a medium term view and am not worried about speculating if 100% or JV is the best for shareholders.
Let us see where the strategic review leads IOF and in a couple of months, or less, we should have a better idea and the objection period will be out of the way.
We have the water, its getting the best deal for shareholders now.

There are some disappointment with the share action so far but the picture needs to be clearer for the II's to invest. I am going to keep tucking IOF shares away and I believe that anyone invested today will have a very good return as events unfold.

[bryproj] 06/10/2014 19:32

Can SG or someone knowledgable comment on Maca 8360 post on other thread. I know that he is always negative but is there any substance in the declining requirement for water in the said location which could affect demand for IOF water?Thanks

[superg1] 06/10/2014 18:46

I think the Evening standard describes the actual and perceived understanding for the water permit news today.

Iodine specialist Iofina roared up 12.25p to 55p on AIM as it announced revenue so far this year has already surpassed last year’s entire total, crystallised iodine production is booming and its subsidiary Atlantis Water Solutions is moving closer to gaining a crucial water permit in Montana.


Moving closer is the best description, but onlookers won't have a clue it's 99% closer.

I doubt many here understand the objection process let alone 'the market'.

EG just about everything applied for from well drilling, to air quality permits go through the process.

So all being well and no valid objections, news will come re the full award. By that time it may include more details of any potential JV. Then with the permit secured, contracts for the purchase of water will follow etc.

[cyberbub] 06/10/2014 18:16

First one definitely a buy IMO, that could explain why I was being bid 55p for 50K shares not long after?Second trade less clear but it's hard to imagine the MMs letting a sale that large go through at that price?? Coincidental identical amount also.. I tend to agree that someone has picked up 700K...All in the price now tho...NAI

[che7win] 06/10/2014 18:01

They look like buys to me, judging by the time.

First one at 8:57:12, above bid at 55.5p.
Second one, 12:49:24, at 53.4p, again above bid.

So, someone has accumulated 700,000 shares at a very cheap price, no wonder the MMs worked this down.

[che7win] 06/10/2014 17:53

Two 350,000 trades showing after hours, either a clever clogs sold one lot early on and bought back or a big buyer?

Anyone know?

[woolybanana] 06/10/2014 17:29

It seems that IOF shares are held in the main by PIs with relatively few pros holding them. Which may account for earlier volatility. But, given the changes of management and circumstances, the shares may start behaving more cooly?

[garfield31] 06/10/2014 17:14

Had a purchase order in for smaller amount with limit of 50p and filled late afternoon.

[cyberbub] 06/10/2014 16:57

There has definitely been a lot of buying at the upper ranges today... I did a dummy sell mid-morning and could easily sell 50K in one go, at the bid price of 55p... I think there are a lot of new holders who will not be selling until we are over 100p... all IMVHO....

[stevo2011] 06/10/2014 16:52

You are doing a lot of overtime lately netters - this is a good sign for long termers ,

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 06/10/2014 16:49

'To my mind the company may become increasingly illiquid'

'If you ever speak to LB all he says is 'all that matters is EPS''

It will become totally illiquid post-de-listing!

EPS and IOF are not synonymous.

[superg1] 06/10/2014 16:37

The David Lenigas description of the market is damn good too, the odd clacker word thrown in helped.

If you ever speak to LB all he says is 'all that matters is EPS' and that's absolutely true. Hence his goal is to strip back costs, increase revenues and margins and restrict dilution, that way the EPS gets good protection.

[che7win] 06/10/2014 16:26

This morning.

MMs had no stock, they marked it up at 55p and sold at that for a few hours and higher, without having the actual stock. Then they started marking it down to actually get the stock they had sold earlier, hence books balanced.

It stinks, but that's the way of the market.

They will probably let it rip now 💥

[cyberbub] 06/10/2014 16:15

To my mind the company may become increasingly illiquid (despite the award of a water permit LOL) as progress continues.Ploen, Baller and Banks own (or have taken off the market) approx 9, 9 and 4 million = 22 million. A number of PIs have large holdings I believe.If some larger instis come on board on the back of iodine and water progress in the coming weeks, then the very small number of shares compared to most AIM companies, could start to work firmly in our favour?NAI

[octopus100] 06/10/2014 16:12

Probably the market hasn't got a handle on this. If they JV this to someone like Halliburton then the project will just cashflow for them. How much I don't know but by all account H Burton have done a similar jv with others cashflowing potentially 150k per day. Not rocket science to do the numbers and work out that this water find alone has huge implications for the company.

My bet would be to completely JV/Outsource is as they know nothing about water and should just collect the revenues.

[che7win] 06/10/2014 16:06

Let me be clear, I assume the current water application only would be in the JV, not the other water assets such as Atlantis.
Othewise, how would we negotiate the potential of other licences etc, at least with Montana it is measurable.

Ahh, Mr Big's email, he's spot on and says it better than me:

mister big 6 Oct'14 - 09:05 - 25475 of 25553 7 0

In respect of price it's important to remember that this is a rigged market at best - mm caught short of short will not push prices higher. Also if institutional demand on the way they keep it low .
I like the comment about averaging up - we will see this at £1.25p but only when the larger buyers arrive .

[woolybanana] 06/10/2014 16:04

Surely they have already considered all these issues and have a plan to go forward from here?

[bobbyshilling] 06/10/2014 16:02

Che7, we have a water expert on the board - Dr Bellamy.

[bobsworth] 06/10/2014 16:02

If those longterm offtake supply agreements come with some serious upfront cash for Iofina to rapidly expand their iodine business then I would not be surprised if the board then decides to choose the specific project financing option where all water revenues and profits stay with Iofina to further grow the non offtake iodine business.
As a longterm shareholder I would be happy with that even if it takes a little longer to get their new water division up and running.

[spike_1] 06/10/2014 16:01

It will be 50%(?) of Atlantis I imagine. Whether we would form another company for ND I don't know. You may well be right.

[che7win] 06/10/2014 15:59

Naphar,
I sympathise with your view too, I just think we are not expert in water and it won't have a competitive moat like iodine, who knows where wate will be in a few years.
I prefer to partner and decrease the risk that way, we could do a 51%/49% split if we wanted a ruling vote.

[bobbyshilling] 06/10/2014 15:56

Naphar, yes only a JV at the right price. As you say, Lance is still very much involved at this juncture, so we must trust his judgement for best value creation.