Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bobbyshilling] 06/10/2014 15:53

Anyway, brilliant news today, despite the share price We probably won't hear much more about the water until the 60 days are up, then rns for their plans, or possibly news of JV. To my mind we are over the big hurdle.

[naphar] 06/10/2014 15:50

Bobby, I agree with you, and thought i was a lone voice over the weekend. Unless the financial NPV, taking into account risk, says that an offer for a JV is better than going it alone.
Lance is all about value creation, so I trust him to make the right decision, assuming there is a decision to make.

[naphar] 06/10/2014 15:47

" ARE NOT SELLING 50% of the water business, we are selling (if we do) 50% of ONE LICENCE. We still have almost twice as much (potentially) more water to 'sell' over time. And that excludes the water swap potential on top of that."

Spike, re the above comment, do you KNOW that, or are you ASSUMING that?
It depends if any deal is for 50% of AWS or 50% of that specific location. the Hal deal was for 50% of AWS as I understand it, because it covered the aquifer and the water license potential.

[spike_1] 06/10/2014 15:46

We don't know that Mr Big has a worked order, but it wouldn't surprise me. BUT ... TO BE FAIR he warned us this morning that this could well happen.

Some of us are slow learners - me included (:0[

[ranger1955] 06/10/2014 15:43

Well they are having none of mine!

[che7win] 06/10/2014 15:41

Orslega,
It's worked to, PI's flapping on the drop :-)

I guess, why not drop it if it works, well done MMs!

[orslega] 06/10/2014 15:38

che7 - no way to talk about Mr Big, lol No doubt he's filling his boots....again, why not...

[che7win] 06/10/2014 15:35

The water licence is worth 100p, let's be crazy and discount it by 50%.

Iodine business is worth up to 65p right now.

65p + 50p = 48p!

Think the city is letting in the big boys, it stinks, look at all those AT trades masquerading as sells.
When an AT trade goes through, it is both buyer and seller.
5k, 10k and 15k AT trades going through like clockwork, a worked order, let those city folk in.

They'll let it go up when they have taken enough off the PI's.

[spike_1] 06/10/2014 15:32

Bob et al. Why would we want to keep 100% We have absolutely no expertise in running a water business whereas Halliburton do. We thought we could run an Iodine business, but the jury is still out on that one (hence the sp),

There is a learning curve starting any business, if we have learned nothing else we should have learned that.

WE ARE NOT SELLING 50% of the water business, we are selling (if we do) 50% of ONE LICENCE. We still have almost twice as much (potentially) more water to 'sell' over time. And that excludes the water swap potential on top of that.

[bobbyshilling] 06/10/2014 15:29

Che7,

As Sg hinted, maybe some haven't worked out the significance of the water side of things - good price to add though after today's news.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 06/10/2014 15:27

Be a laugh when you can't get a JV and have te do a massive funding eh? lol

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 06/10/2014 15:25

Back te the 40's? lol

[che7win] 06/10/2014 15:17

Im sure IOF could project finance the water venture, they hint at that in the Rns.

So Atlantis Water Solutions would be a separate company with debt within that business secured against projected cash flow.

Another option.

Anyway, I'm baffled today, th iodine update alone last week and today covers the current share price and more, so the water news isn't having any affect on our valuation.

Yet, it is surely worth the market cap on its own.

I'm with spike, we need Broker notes to surface with the water projection scenarios.

Im stunned how the market is taking this, even a month ago we were at 66p!

[bobbyshilling] 06/10/2014 15:03

SG, I would rather see them raise $15m by way of a placing if that should be all we would get. The water business is surely worth far more than $15m. 20m shares at 50p would do it, and we would keep 100% of the water business.

[superg1] 06/10/2014 14:52

It's not worth the effort. Continuous pounding with a sledge hammer into the head of a fund manager wouldn't work on US water and water rights.

Once more IOF has a pretty much unique investment scenario in the stock market here.

Another will probably follow in time called Helium not on the scale of water potential or iodine.

Iodine is unique here too.

They don't need to get it, they just look for trends and performance.

That water media report says it all.

I would be disappointed if IOF took $15 mill for 50% but if that means an increase in iodine production then all well and good.

Long may that not understand it, Bogg1es family and friends investment method should see them as very very happy in those 5 years.

[spike_1] 06/10/2014 14:46

Che, you may be right, my thoughts are that providing expectations of the value of the water may be counter productive, and actually misleading to the market, prior to concluding a JV.

Best wishes - Mike

[che7win] 06/10/2014 14:19

Spike,
Surely it's in IOFs interests to publish what they have on the water side, it should strengthen our position if we are negotiating a JV.

The higher the value of the water business, the higher lump sum we get?

[superg1] 06/10/2014 14:18

Have a read of this hugely bullish mainly US related view on water as an investment and look who is buying water type investments wherever they can.

hxxp://www.globalresearch.ca/the-new-water-barons-wall-street-mega-banks-are-buying-up-the-worlds-water/5383274

Add on top that produced water recycling happens in some areas and is expensive.

Consider that the Atlantis produced water has little contaminants and can be cleaned up as already previously planned by IOF.

The leases cover an estimated 35 billion barrels, a 10% recovery potential would mean 3.5 Billion barrels. Last year's Bakken use was about 120 million barrels, that will climb.

Enough at the current use rate for 41 years and note it is not a water deficit.

I asked about the Fresno reservoir way back after reading about the discharge permit. The discharge permit can be increased and took many years to get.
The Fresno was said to have a 500k bpd storage capacity. If you store water you own it.

IOF said

'The balance of the water that the Company produces may be offered to users downstream of the reservoir along the Missouri River.'

That storage capacity if correct is more than the current Bakken use each year.

As the water would pass through the Bowdoin wildlife reserve in Montana, the US fisheries agreed a rights swap deal, they have about 100,000 acre feet of rights in Montana and ND.

These are factors not yet in play, and I don't know of any other US company in the industry that has a discharge permit. Such permits are exceedingly difficult to achieve and lawyers laughed at IOF when they said they could do it.

The value of Atlantis, the discharge permit, the rights swap, and the permit, is not $5mill and $10 mill.

It all depends on the economics of water recycling and discharge into the river system, to know whether it's a viable business. Gas offsets some costs and iodine was to do the same.

It's a matter that was never going to be considered until the standard permit application process ran it's course.

It may not be viable, but wells were only $50k each to drill. It could be nothing, it could be a massive opportunity.

However if you read that report, you know what Wall street thinks about water.

All I'm after short term is cash in the bank from the JV, the permit is exciting enough as it is.

[woodpeckers] 06/10/2014 13:49

"Iodine specialist Iofina roared up 12.25p to 55p on AIM as it announced revenue so far this year has already surpassed last year’s entire total, crystallised iodine production is booming and its subsidiary Atlantis Water Solutions is moving closer to gaining a crucial water permit in Montana."

[spike_1] 06/10/2014 13:49

Until a broker - in conjunction with IOF - looks properly at Atlantis, we are not going to get IMO a meaningful share price reaction. Almost the only people in this country who understand the potential are those looking at this screen right now.

I'm curious as to when IOF will give out water figures (to analysts). Until they conclude their JV they will not want to prejudice their negotiating position (I'm guessing). But there are figures out there in the US, that could be used, but I doubt IOF would publish their estimates yet - could be wrong of course.

Maybe the 'next' news will be what happens to RB and that could be any day now.

Best wishes - Mike

[superg1] 06/10/2014 13:44

Che

Well explained.

[che7win] 06/10/2014 13:41

Think it's simpler than that.

The market looks 1-2 years ahead, on that basis these are a bargain below 75p, it takes time for news to filter in.

MMs are playing around with the price, they will happily gather back the short position they were in this morning and balance the books.

When they get enough, they can proceed to move up, maybe we have a few fund manager orders in too that have been side swiped by the news.

They must have their fill, PI's can't have it all their own way.

[cyberbub] 06/10/2014 13:33

There will be another RNS when the objection period expires in a couple of weeks I would expect.In the meantime the mgt will be working hard behind the scenes to get a JV partner on board by Xmas I would have thought?I am down £1k on my purchase this morning too, a bit annoying but irrelevant if you are an LTH......I do appreciate though that I am talking from the point of view of someone whose average is still under 40p... others who bought at much higher prices will still be hurting...Good luck to all genuine LTHs... no advice intended...