Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 03/12/2013 10:06

Spike

It's the ad click revenue that means we have to put up with herds of morons.

I think there is mileage in a decent well run blog site, rather than a blog site with a disclaimer, that does naff all.

It seems to me a high percentage of blues us the threads. The threads here are more about advertising cash, than customer service.

Personally I'm waiting for another site/idea to appear, that I heard about, I don't think there is anything like it in the market, so I'll be following that if it appears. I've met one of the guys doing it, and he is as nice a guy you could want to meet, very well connected, and doesn't deal in BS.

[chumbo] 03/12/2013 10:03

Thanks SG for the further water commentary. I was going to ask if once the limit on abstraction from surface sources had been reached they would move on to aquifers but you've beaten me to it.

I suppose therefore we are waiting to get a sense of when the limit is about to be reached, which should be a catalyst for asset values to start lifting.

Is it too early to predict the demand split between hot and cold? It has always struck me that if the margins for hot are so rosy (potentially up to nearly $5/barrel?)there may be a payback for the end user to heat at point of use if the volumes are there. Perhaps mobile heaters shared by multiple wells?

[spike_1] 03/12/2013 09:57

Thanks John, I'll give it a try.
Best wishes - Mike

[johncsimpson] 03/12/2013 09:53

Bingo - that's what I use (on my PC) in combination with AD Block and Adblock Plus - note different uses of upper and lower case in their titles.

added - there you go - Titus seems to agree and he has a 'custom' solution for Macs.

[spike_1] 03/12/2013 09:47

Hi John,
I use an iMac with Chrome and Safari.
I've just had a message from someone who has kindly suggested I use Firefox.
Best wishes - Mike

[titus10] 03/12/2013 09:47

Spike

If you have a MacBook, a two-finger gesture on the touch pad enlarges the text as required to simply push them off the side. On a PC, haven't tried it since going Apple but Adblock reviews may offer that or something similar which works for you.

[johncsimpson] 03/12/2013 09:26

Spike

Yes they are annoying - I did some experiments a while back with different browsers and came up with a solution which works for me (but might not for you).

So I'll try and help - what browser are you using?

[the librarian] 03/12/2013 09:10

A collective calm.... or frustration @)

Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.

I don't think they are idle, it should all spring into action soon. I would say calm before the storm but I suspect they are working their socks off at IOF to make it all happen... they will get there.

[spike_1] 03/12/2013 09:08

OT: whilst quiet here: I am a blue member and pay £77.99 p.m. for the 'pleasure' of having sidebar ads' following me down the page. Has anyone found a way of getting rid of them other than paying an extra £10 p.m.

How do others feel about it? I've been having an active on-going email exchange with the CEO who - more or less - promised they would be gone by December.

Any views appreciated.

Best wishes - Mike

[rogerbridge] 03/12/2013 08:17

I am also invested in GHT, a slow burner but it is now starting to make good profits and has just announced a placing at a 5% premium to the share price. That takes some doing in todays markets. The placing is for a faster roll out of their CTC.

[rogerbridge] 03/12/2013 08:15

bobbyshilling, I thought QFI was getting toppy and was waiting for a re-trace before adding, but it has not come, well not yet. I little concerned that the hot money will disappear if the expected good news does not materialise, but the prospects are so huge it will look like a blip if you are investing for the long term.

[rogerbridge] 02/12/2013 21:52

Another good piece of work SG. IOF coming to the boil with news on water or IO1/IO2/IO3 could be released any , soon. I have been fixated on the iodine core business, however the market is not pricing in the water opportunities. I certainly would not want to be short here.

[bobbyshilling] 02/12/2013 18:55

Sg, agreed about price chasing. I got badly burned chasing EME up when I was a novice - learned from that!

[superg1] 02/12/2013 18:29

The best advice imo is not to chase a price, if a price on a share carries on up, then so be it.

Tangiers pet was the one suspended today. It looked good so I had a read (oct), then some pillock 100's of miles away found oil off the west coast of Africa. Then anything off west Africa got a bit of a buying trend going. It settled down nicely off the peak, then the darn rns today. If it's bad news then ... phew, if not then doh!

[superg1] 02/12/2013 18:17

Chumbo

Thanks for the question as it prompted some digging. I won't put the link in, the likes of Ennis can do their own research.

The details relate to late 2012 some points-:

The ND water bureau wants extraction from surface supplies not aquifers as the depletion of those is a worry.

Water demand caused them to allow a temporary change on irrigation permits to industrial use.

2,500 wells expected per year over the next 15-25 years

17 water depots were on temp converted irrigation to industrial use. Those will not be allowed to continue in the future.

86% of permits for depots were from ground water sources. Groundwater is the source most at risk, and depletion of that is what the authorities want to avoid.

To finish they say they are not depleting aquifers to service the oil industry. They are at the moment as they have been caught out by the boom.
As above, at the time, 86% of permits were for aquifers.

As time goes on, temp permits will be withdrawn, and surface water permits will be favoured.

Interestingly the estimated use in the sector was 7 billion gallons. That's more than Bob Shaver predicted would be used in 10 years time.

For that well increase prediction that would add 10 billion gallon per year just for well maintenance, not fracking or reworking wells, which happens many times over their lifetime.

Now you can see the value of water rights, the rights swap, the Atlantis water source, and the associated discharge permit

[bobbyshilling] 02/12/2013 16:52

Sg, similar to me in a way. I have been waiting for QFI to re-trace before adding, but it is costing me I fear. Up again today, but still could be cheap if it comes together.

[superg1] 02/12/2013 16:49

Chumbo

Here is the comment re water will be fully appropriated in time (as below)


Bob Shaver (the local water guru) talks of 3 billion gallons per year based on 2011 data. He expected that use to double over the next decade.

But then a report on water this November put water use for the Bakken of 5.5 billion gallons, to double by 2035. But is we take it as right, it near doubled in one year and only around 15% of predicted wells numbers over the years are drilled. BUT then comes another twist, well maintenance with fresh water to remove salt clogging up flows.

If we go on future predicted number of wells, and daily water maintenance numbers, that's 10 billions gallons per year on it's own, never mind fracking and reworking.

The extract ( This extract relates to August 2012.)-:

There's plenty to supply the oil companies for now, says Bob Shaver, director of the water appropriations division for the Water Commission, which monitors the state's aquifers and regulates all surface and groundwater withdrawals. The best estimate for oil-field use is about 3 billion gallons, based on last year's activity, with demand projected to double over the next decade. But it's only a matter of time before the state's water is fully appropriated, he says, and any new use will have noticeable effects. That day is nearing as the oil rush drives population growth in rural areas with little infrastructure, further straining water supplies. McKenzie County, in the heart of the boom, has grown 20 percent in two years.

Each new depot draws more opposition from neighbors and other interests, Shaver says, highlighting the resource's increasing value -- and scarcity. "To me, water is going to be the oil of the 21st century."

Nationwide, energy companies have been using more and more water for hydraulic fracturing over the past decade, spurring worries about impacts, from the arid West, where many rivers are fully appropriated, to relatively water-wealthy Pennsylvania. The EPA estimates that fracking uses between 70 billion and 140 billion gallons of water total each year. That's small compared to irrigation, which uses about 128 billion gallons every day. But much of the irrigation water runs into the ground or streams, and a lot of the rest evaporates to rain down elsewhere. In contrast, water used for oil and gas is usually disposed of or otherwise removed from the system. Even relatively small withdrawals can have local impacts.

[freshvoice] 02/12/2013 16:23

Patient boy just picked up 70k today- wonder who?

[superg1] 02/12/2013 16:17

Chumbo

They have years of flow data and trends. There was a big review going on of old rights and actual water used.

No doubt they have a figure in mind where they would not allow further new rights.

Bob Shaver in ND gave an estimate of how much water he thought would be needed. As I recall he also stated that rights would be fully appropriated within a few years.

However his estimation of water use has been exceeded. I'll do some digging to see what can be turned up.

[superg1] 02/12/2013 16:14

Doh

I was researching one share and it's been climbing in price, today is suspended pending an announcement, I suspect an offer.

Then another that has doubled while researching.

Research doesn't always pay off. :-)

[superg1] 02/12/2013 15:34

Roger

If they got to production level in the 1000's of mt then at some point it could be a shrewd business move.

The Chile cost issue is known and evidence in recent weeks shows the prices they don't want to go near. If down the road forcing the price down removes competitors and opens up the market for yourself, then that is the way to go.

However at $50 per kg, SQM did just that, and reduced production to compensate for increased production elsewhere.

With annual increases in demand I had 3000mt as the point that iof would start to upset the balance. Other Chile player previous forecasts may have taken it lower, but recent events, suggest that's done an about turn. SQM have taken 3000mt of the table, and the affect of that won't kick in for a few months. Cosayach seem to have dumped 4000 mt extra in the coming years, having cancelled plans and withdrawn expansion applications.

Acf minera seemed to have done the same, with that cancelation document.

So there is a lot of future tonnage that was planned that has been cancelled.

SQM have gone form increased production plans, to production drops, all in the last 6 months, not due to demand, but price protection, and rising costs.

[rogerbridge] 02/12/2013 15:18

I would like to see IOF get the highest price possible for iodine. It would be good to knock the competition but not at the expense of revenue. Maybe I can not see the bigger picture though.

[chumbo] 02/12/2013 14:41

Just revisiting the "normal" water rather than the swapped variety, does anyone know if the quantity to be appropriated is cast in stone or is there a review mechanism subject to Missouri levels?

[phoenixs] 02/12/2013 14:33

nashwan,
I'll take all your +ve coincidences!