Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[crazycoops] 26/11/2013 19:19

FWIW, my end of year prediction at the beginning of this year was £5 (and would have been posted on the old thread). A couple of months ago I revised that number to £2.40 based on the fact that we have had 4-6 months of delays during the course of this year. This said, I remain confident that the share price will cruise past £5 in the fullness of time, as long as the company continue to execute their business plan.

[johncsimpson] 26/11/2013 18:56

I am sorry monts12. Not worded precisely enough. I hope you weren't overly offended - I had no intention of suggesting that 'that' specific comment was inaccurate Just that it was the only comment (and there was another similar) that I could find that came anywhere near to Shonny's premise that there were lots of £2+ posts by Christmas let alone £5+ claims.

FWIW - I 100% agree with you re that specific point and also the generality of your last paragraph. We're singing from the same hymn sheet. As too with SG post 11578.

I just want Shonny to come up with some names of posters and the respective post numbers to substantiate his claim (pre my 'challenge') that there were '£5 by Xmas merchants' a few months ago.

On the other side of the coin, I can find quite a few 75p claims for just about every month this year by a couple of posters - none of which ever came true – but maybe by Christmas.

[monty panesar] 26/11/2013 18:39

Just going back 3 weeks it was confirmed by Sirocco Mining in their conference call that total Iodine exports from Chilean Ports had HALVED from May to Sept/Oct time which backs up all the news in the SQM results as well as everything else SG has dug out about other producers.




Monty Panesar - 07 Nov 2013 - 19:37:56 - 10765 of 11579
Regarding Sirocco results it is interesting that the v cold weather in the Atacama Desert over the Winter is being blamed for poor production. You would think that all Chilean producers have had the same issues.
They say exports from Chile are 50pc less now than in May as the bigger producers have also cut output.

[noli] 26/11/2013 18:29

Great post SG.

Who else can expand so quickly and not worry about prices. Just iof imho.

And this is just one reason why i am in iof,

SQM and others can't expand. Extra production lowers prices, so they make less. The capex to produce more iodine in Chile is going up, and so is the opex.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 18:00

JC

No point in trying to guess what the price will do, but there is value imo by keeping an eye on the future and what is going on elsewhere. It's hard work digging out info, funds and analysts don't have the time, or tenacity to do it.
There is often some mainstream stuff that is easy to pick up on, but it's rarely accurate.

I suggest that recent expert report, available for mucho £'s is already out of date re future plans of Chile iodine. They did get one thing right, the last line in particular-:

'The analysts forecast the Global Iodine market to grow at a CAGR of 3.56 percent over the period 2012-2016. One of the key factors contributing to this market growth is the increased demand for iodine from developing countries. The Global Iodine market has also been witnessing an increase in the production capacities of major iodine producers. However, the increasing capital expenditure required for iodine production could pose a challenge to the growth of this market.


If I were to compare some bold claims just 2/3 months back.

SQM 29th August

Iodine claim

'In terms of the iodine, I think that the market is growing. We will see opportunities and we will act aggressively in the market as SQM related with our position and also we are improving our costs there significantly'

Action taken. Mines closed and 400 staff fired.

A report dated 29th Sept had Acf Minera and Cosayach, bullish about expansion, but the cancelled applications related to expansion found today, show that was just BS. Either that, or they are idea's conceived on the high prices and they didn't have the foresight to see where it was all going.

I think Algorta have a decent amount of BS thrown in for their claims this year, as I've just found another document that shows they need to go from 150 litres per second to 400 litres per second, and will need to build a second sea water pipeline, next to the current one, with a $30 mill cost. That won't be happening anytime soon as they need to get through all the EIA processes yet.

I forecast that iodine prices will bottom out now, as the Chile guys control the market and all are clearly feeling the pinch of prices in the $50 range.


E.G. How can iodine go to $30-$35 per kg in Chile when it costs 4 of the main 5 mines more than that to produce it. There isn't anywhere else currently that can cover Chile mines going offline.

SQM wouldn't mention their prices in that recent Q and A session as they are in contract talks.



So the cycle of what we thought would happen is in action. SQM and others can't expand. Extra production lowers prices, so they make less. The capex to produce more iodine in Chile is going up, and so is the opex.

[monts12] 26/11/2013 17:25

Johnsimpson
'multiples of the current price' is what I posted, in full context (post 11055):

"if the company delivers on its roll out plan, it will be many multiples of the current price imo"

and I firmly stand by that.

Posters like SHONNY only appear between periods of news to play on the fear of weak holders for their own gain, their posts usually contain nothing of substance just predictions of falling share price

[bogg1e] 26/11/2013 17:17

Im assuming about 270p - cos IO4 should be running by then + progress on water.

[johncsimpson] 26/11/2013 17:05

So, re Chile; who's gonna play the white-man and tell Ennismore?

This Chilean research (less easy to quantify than Iofina's position – in that they seem to be a bit secretive and tell porkys – though it's unravelling and becoming clearer by the week) doesn't mean the share price will not move in both directions - share prices always do. It doesn't mean Shonny won't be right about his Christmas prediction. It doesn't mean all the £2.00+ predictions will be wrong either. But those who keep on banging out the same message i.e. 'missed targets' and have only this one argument to justify their predictions, have a lot less going for them than those who can see the continual improvement in IOF's position, not only re output and plants coming on-line but also re all those Chilean enterprises who seem to be in 'stall mode'. And then there's water, helium oil, gas - stay awake chaps - I know the list is long . . .

For the record, I've never predicted any price. But I'd like Shonny to name any if not all those people he claims said £5.00 and plus by Christmas. I've looked back for an hour now and can't find any – well one who said 'multiples of the current price' (as was then). I'll back up or explain anything I've posted as I'm sure would SG and others.

So come on Shonny - as the great Delia once said, 'Let's be avin ye.'

Put up or shut up.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 15:34

ACF Minera (algorta plans)

7Resolución Exenta N° 124 del 29 de octubre del 2013; Resolución que indica desistimiento al procedimiento de evaluación ambiental de la D.I.A. del Proyecto "Exploración Minera" de la empresa ACF Minera.

translated

Exempt 7 Resolución No. 124 of October 29, 2013, Resolution indicating withdrawal to environmental assessment procedure IAD Project "Mineral Exploration" company ACF Minera.


I have found the 'desisted' version for Cosayach

2.5 Exempt Resolution No. 119 of October 17, 2013; Withdrawal Resolution indicating the environmental assessment procedure IAD Project "Increasing Production of Iodine Negreiros, SCM Cosayach" of Sociedad Contractual Minera Northern Development Corporation.


So it seems both Acf Minera (Algorta) and Cosayach have in the last few weeks withdrawn their EIA permits to expand mines and production.

That's the top 4 in Chile all going backwards in the last month or two, ALL contrary to their claims just a few months back.

We did warn about Chile and where it was going.

Besides opex, they have a major problem, for each 1000 mt growth for Chile you are looking at probably $70m plus capex

[bogg1e] 26/11/2013 15:20

Cheers all. Interesting stuff.

Do we know where we are approximately with builds etc? IO1,2 and 3 up and running at full capacity. IO4 - do we have an idea on the delay regarding the towers, its been a number of weeks now. I assume foundations are in for IO5 and the plant hopefully built too, just waiting for towers and hook ups to commence commissioning. IO6 to be built by IO2. Cool. But do we have an idea whether foundations have commenced yet?

Also can we assume that next years roll out will be hindered or is it a case of all the towers coming in at once and a rapid multi plant commissioning? Even if that were the case i think it sensible to downgrade the number of new plants to be added next year from 8 to perhaps 5, given that january and feb will probably be taken up with finishing off 5 and 6. Any thoughts? Cheers.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 14:32

Re the last post.

No doubt about it Cosayach they have withdrawn their plans. The ACF doc was titled in the same way, I'll double check that one later.

A growing list of casualties it seems. The evidence to show they can't cope at prices below the current rate is stacking up nicely.

As Chile supplies 60% of world iodine, they control the price. In their haste to grab more of the market, they let the pendulum swing too far.

I'll try and find out about the others having found a very nice site to find out what is going on.

I won't be posting the link. What was said a few months back by some Chile producers, now seems null and void. :-)

[superg1] 26/11/2013 14:09

jointer13
tough times ahead......for the chileans


Jointer (and others)

First we saw SQM with big plans then immediately move onto the back foot.

I've just mentioned Algorta, and their figures don't add up.

In recent reports, Cosayach claim they are going to increase production and so so do others. For expansion in Chile you first need environmental impact assessments.

The plan was to increase production from 770mt to 2500 mt.

Minutes from a meeting this month seem to suggest the application has been withdrawn

If I look up the original application.

Under status it says 'desisted' and under the document header it says 'resolution of withdrawal'.

I'm now working on Acf Minera (part 2 of Algorta) as it seems to suggest that they too have withdrawn the EIA which covers expansion.

So if the above is right, the claims by Chile smaller mines of growth and increased production, is about to fall flat on it's face.

Such claims just don't stack up, the maths simply doesn't work, they can't cope at these prices and it seems some are shelving expansion plans.

That's where the extra digging pays off. Media reports and smaller mines talk of expansion of growth, in recent months.

Official authority records show a different story.

[johncsimpson] 26/11/2013 13:32

Good find jointer. Just adds to all the other snipets of research re Chile. I hope Ennismore are on the ball here.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 13:01

Algorta

I'm only going on a media comment, but it seems to be quotes from the company.

The plan is for 3000mt this year and that's what they claim. However revenue for H1 seems to cover just over 1000 mt, with $10m profit.

So at $50 per kg, looking at it in simple terms it looks like $40 per kg costs.

They have to double output in H2 to hit their overall target. Maybe they will, or maybe it's BS, to keep SQM and others guessing.

[johncsimpson] 26/11/2013 12:36

Again . . .

[nixonpaul] 26/11/2013 12:25

So why are you telling us that?

[neddo] 26/11/2013 12:08

changed your tune usually 75p Nutley?

[shonny] 26/11/2013 11:39

Time is rapidly running out for the "£2 by Xmas" merchants here. As for the "£5 by Xmas " merchants of a few months ago !!!!!!!! Nearer £1 than £2 by Xmas is more likely. This just might make £2 by Xmas 2014 barring more missed targets next year.

[che7win] 26/11/2013 09:16

Nice recovery in TPL from 33p last week to 42p now.

[superg1] 26/11/2013 07:47

Jc

They don't know anything, it's just a bet on the iodine market I suspect, but you need to know the inner workings of certain mines to understand why?

News confirming plant delays due to towers may well have been another consideration. I know they consider other aspects simply won't be achieved. They have made that assumption before, E.G. the patent.

The Chile players have been in a mode of misinformation to confuse each other for a couple of years now. None have them have done or achieved what they said they were going to do.

I've been tracking Algorta, to see if their claims are actually met, there is a big gap in H1 compared to what they claim they will do in H2. Profits for them only seem to be around the $10 per kg mark. Sirocco isn't a lot different, and I suspect SCM Bullmine's costs are higher. Cosayach unknown, but I don't see why their costs should be materially different to the other smaller mines.

Ioditech did say smaller mines 'had managed to stay open' on the price drop. So it would seem the iodine price is near it's bottom in relation to how some Chile mines can continue to operate. The new gov will be introducing more tax for the miners to pay for reforms.

As I found out with SQM in 2011, it can appear that production suddenly increases, but often it's a sudden dumping of inventories which make it look that way.

Sirocco spell out exactly what they are doing, so there is no guesswork involved there.

$40- $45 per kg looks like break even for some, prob underwater for SCM.

So if I imagine IOF in 2/3 years, plants delivered with strong growth, then anything under $40 could wipe 5000mt plus off the Chile map. It's simply getting too expensive to produce iodine in Chile. In a few years it's gone from having the lowest costs producers to the highest.

There are plenty of examples re other mines in Chile that have seen large capex and opex increases and it looks like it's going to get worse.

[festario] 26/11/2013 00:41

SuperG.
A week or so ago, you mentioned a cautionary tale about Gaming stocks, and mentioned that GVC could be at risk.
I have been away for a few days, and only now have I had chance to answer your points.

GVC do indeed operate in some markets where gaming is illegal. They also operate in markets which are semi-legal, some rather 'grey' and also fully regulated ones.
So, they have been steadily, (and astutely) being de-risking for the past few years.
However, they are not 'physically' situated in any of them.
Instead, they simply operate websites in the language of those countries, (e.g. Turkey), but the servers for those sites are many thousands of miles distant.
Therefore they have no staff nor exposure to any regimes who frown upon gambling.

Hence, if a Turkish citizen fancies having a flutter on roulette, they will be taking a slight risk legally, but GVC will not.
In fact, Turkish citizens do exactly that, in massive numbers, and the the profit from that is almost FORTY MILLION POUNDS per annum.

Add to that the growing businesses in Germany, the Slavic countries, plus Central and South America, and you can see that GVC are exposed to no one single risk.
In addition, GVC acquired SportingBet, (a much larger company) in 2013, via a reverse takeover using the financial muscle of William Hill, and have already integrated it, and slashed all of its loss making brands. 6 months ahead of schedule.
GVC have a policy of paying 75% of all profits to shareholders in the form of dividends.
The current yield is approx 12%, and, the dividends are paid quarterly.
I know of no other company that is such a cascade of cash for its shareholders.

GVC recently said that despite being forecasted to raise profits by FIFTY percent in 2013, they are on course to MATERIALLY exceed this.
This would make the yield closer to 18% per annum, as a minimum.

At 350p per share, (up from 96p when I bought them), they are still very undervalued, they are on a P/E of less than 5, and will continue to re-rate.

GVC have been my saviour and have insulated me against terrible cash losses on GKP and FOGL, and current paper losses on IOF and HAWK, which I expect to recoup anyway in the fullness of time.

[escapetohome] 25/11/2013 22:56

or use probabilty - out of four shares picked one of them will collapse - they make their money and close out the other 3 shorts.