Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[naphar] 30/11/2013 11:23

You talking to me SG? If so, I missed the point :-)

[superg1] 30/11/2013 11:10

Yes full of useless rubbish that just sticks for some reason. I resist one liners as 99% of posters do that, either bullish or bearish, and when challenged to explain their reasoning, squiff all comes back.

I find on threads, that some investors very quickly lose track of what they have read numerous times previously.

I'm sure some will have heard colleagues talk of stupid historic ideas, then go quiet as someone points out, that it was their idea.

E.G.

I may be wrong but I believe a certain someone that recently posted is a management accountant.


In contrast to financial accountancy information, management accounting information is:

primarily forward-looking, instead of historical


Need I go on. Anyone in industry, should be all about long term prospects and viewpoints.

[naphar] 30/11/2013 10:56

What I find difficult with the water business, is valuing it when we have no idea what the plan is, they are still considering whether to JV (at a better valuation for shareholders) or go it alone. I they go it alone, I would still like to see it spun off into a separate company, where IOF shareholders are given a proportionate number of shares in what might be called "Atlantis Water Solutions plc". I think that would be a great way to realise the full value. Put in a small and separate management team for a relatively low cost, and let them drive it forward.

I am not convinced by the sell it off option, I don't think we will get full value that way. And as for the JV, maybe money for free is a good way to go, but I think we would still be giving a lot away.

Point is, how to value when you don't know the option that will be taken.
To say 80k bpd at $1 pb and 10c pb costs is 320 days a year is £14.4m pre tax profit is great, pe15 and 30% tax is a great valuation of about £1.19 if I did my sums right, or 80p with PE if 10. How will the market value a granted permit which is not producing revenue and there is no clarity on the future business model? How will it value the potential of 2 more granted permits in Montana? Etc etc.

Maybe preliminary determination to grant will achieve a small rise, maybe 10-20p,of course I would be pleased to see more, but I don't see a big spike coming, maybe another 10-20p when the permit is granted, possibly. Will much value be added before we are generating actual water revenues? I can't see that happening until the business model is clear and maybe even running, because its impossible to know what valuation assumptions to make.

[the librarian] 30/11/2013 10:51

Bore the pants off me sometimes monts, but I wouldn't want all that stuff in my head and would have to get it out too :-)... but it must be useful for those that haven't been around for the long term, it's good to have the information available.

With the water orslega must admit that I was disappointed that they didn't go with the rights swap first and believe that would have been up and running by now.

If they sell the business then I don't know where that will leave them for any future appliations, a jv would make more sense because that leaves the door open for further applications and the rights swap.

[orslega] 30/11/2013 10:13

On subject of Water, and just musing, even as non core, Water should create some serious discussion soon if current the permit materialises, as seems pretty likely and short term.

Investec have said nothing yet built into forecast/sp for Water. CF said at last PI presentation, revenue could be turned on in reasonable time, so quite possibly Q2 2014? So am interested in some "guestimates on some figures based on current application. (No doubt Gary Gatchell will be looking closer at IOF cashflow FY2014 with Water in mind...amongst other things, lol)

So Sept 2012 interims set the scene...

Atlantis Prospect – Non-core
Water Completed
•
Large water resource (35 billion barrels) co-produced with natural gas and iodine development
•
Secured Agreement to purchase water from Halliburton for hydraulic fracturing for Bakken shale
•
Issued water discharge permit to store in adjacent reservoir
•
Achieved necessary permits for discharge into Missouri River
•
Water proven to be economically treatable (Low organics, sulfates and TDS)
•
Endorsed by U.S. Fish and Wildlife (USFW) Services for Bowdoin Wildlife Refuge located along the Missouri River- Iofina to swap water upstream for water down stream in return for USFW storage rights
•
Fresno Reservoir has usable capacity of 65.8 billion gallons. Water is managed and delivered by the Bureau of Reclamation
•
Produced water (treated) is considered a 'new' water resource and can be appropriated for beneficial use (a water right can be filed)
Pending
•
Iofina has now elected to progress project independently without a JV partner
•
Finalise selection of water terminals
•
Filing for industrial water rights in North Dakota and Montana for 100,000 bpd each for a total of 200,000 bpd 2H 2012
•
Construct water takeout terminals in North Dakota and Montana

[...]


Obviously current permit application was initially scaled back to accelerate the process etc But more to come hopefully. But what struck me was the opex comment below, from LB at the time - "7 cents per barrel". It infers a hugely profitable opportunity for IOF and can understand why they pulled the JV with Halliburton, even as non core. The reference to $1 per barrel selling is for cold water and hot would be considerable higher (opex increasing for hot water but proportionately?)


"They are recognised by the US fisheries as a water supplier (due to an historic situation in the Fresno reservoir, Atlantis) which enables them to apply for permits to supply water to the oil companies involved in fracking (and the oilies amongst you will know that fracking is going through a boom period in the US). Earlier this year they walked away from a joint venture with Halliburton that would have given them around $15m upfront and a 50/50 share of $70m for just one water supply contract. They walked away because they decided to go it alone. They are currently negotiating water supply contracts with oil companies and once locations are known, they will be applying for permits in those locations. The first water supply plant is due to be built in spring 2013. We need to wait for further details before calculating the value of this new division but at an investor presentation this autumn the CEO was quoted as saying that opex for a water plant will be around 7 cents per barrel with the sale price being around $1 per barrel




IOF BoD have enough on their plate with the iodine plant roll out atm and for 2014, so it would not surprise me to see Water being sold off - and relatively short term. Whilst this is non core to Iofina, if permit arrives, Water for IOF is going to be a substantial business in its own right. Will Iofina still be saying it is non core this time next year? In some ways I hope so, as that will speak volumes for their iodine production roll out. Going to be interesting for sure.

[escapetohome] 30/11/2013 10:08

Ramu - Take 100% responsibility for your mistake - that is the only way to learn and become a better trader- I you dont accept the responsibility you never learn - as it is always someone else's fault.

Hard though it is sometimes - you gotta do it.

[superg1] 30/11/2013 09:53

Interesting posts.

I have listed a few you have made Ramu. You claim to be have been around the investing circles for years and know to DYOR, however I don't see anywhere that you have shared any of your research. You also admitted recently, that you got too greedy on the highs at IOF, having made your first purchases at 40p.

You posted an another thread (as below) that IOF would be a 10 bagger. At the price then you were suggesting £24/£25.

I note you also mention GDL and Byot (20p ish then and BYOT 9/10p then), now both down 30% plus, but you called Byot a 3 bagger (27p plus) and seem to indicate GDL will do more.
Coincidentally I was negative about both, and made posts about both shares, as they came up for discussion on the tips thread.

I mentioned ATUK on that thread and it seems you took a punt for some reason on the lows and still hold, for probably 5 to 10 times your investment.

Now your are on the Royal mail thread suggesting £10 to £15 next year ??. Good call if you are right, but wow the gov undervalued that if you are right.

IOF

Earlier this year, you predicted only 3 would be complete, but you hold now, whinging about it. IOF said 6 would be complete in the last 2 months. I haven't said that, and have made dozens of posts about slipping into Q1 not being an issue for me. Each to their own.

When you posted your negativity it went off up to £2 very strongly, which was a real head scratcher, considering the news released and circs. Why didn't you sell then? I have you as about a 185 average.

So now all you need is 20p on the price, when others may be stuck on well over £2.

In your posts, it seems you are a person of wealth, and are having a whinge at your paper loss, created by you for getting greedy on highs. One post below suggests you were following TA posters.

But this one line in a post speaks volumes and explains your trait, the topic is around missing out due to lack of patience-:

'In the past, I sold out too soon on stocks like ASOS, BNH, 888 holdings etc.'

IOF are about 6 months behind where they wanted to be, if you can't wait that long then sell up, I doubt it would take anywhere near that time to cover the 20p needed for you to break even.

You have been around investing for far longer than me, but for some unknown reason want to blame other people your own investing decisions.

I think 'Grow a pair' is a term I most often see, in these circs on threads.

I'm not happy IOF have slipped in timings, but the story hasn't changed, it just gets stronger.

Slippage doesn't fit with trading, and neither does greed.

As for GDL, I predict it will collapse, and the spin off company will appear in India, with China abandoned along with Greka drilling. I hope it doesn't but that's what it smells like to me. Hopefully it will multiply many times for investors. We are all entitled to opinions of course.

ramu kumar - 15 May 2013 - 17:02:39 - 25224 of 26256

warmsun, I piled in at 10p above today's close but hey, none of us have a crystal ball to get the timing perfect!

Someone said it will go to 250p then retrace to 220p before the steep rise to 290p - here's hoping.


ramu kumar - 22 May 2013 - 13:52:19 - 112 of 11746

sg1, your header in the previous board was thorough. As most of us are now aware of IOF potential, can I suggest a brief header in four categories

a) Latest info - this can about insurance cover, news about progress etc
b) IOF forecast numbers for production, revenue,earnings and SP
c) Info on water, helium & oil
d) Details of blue posters to be ignored etc


BYOTROL-CAN DELIVER AMAZING RESULTS - BYOT
ramu kumar - 03 Jun 2013 - 22:17:29 - 455 of 1108
Guys, regardless of the esteem backgrounds of directors and the quality product, you're not going to see any significant movement in the share price until the PR machine get's into gear. This share is illiquid and the product is no where near any of must have gizmos like iphone or samsung s4. Personally, I think one is better off investing in fundamentals - have a look at IOF or GDL - if mud is right, you'll triple your investment here but with IOF, you're likely to be on a 10 bagger within 2 years.


Iofina - IOF
ramu kumar - 30 Jul 2013 - 11:40:41 - 5858 of 11746
I may be wrong but I suspect this stock has a higher proportion of spreadbetters and also expectations are high because of the potential, hence the anxiety amongst 'investors'.

My expectations are very low, I will be happy if IO3 is fully commissioned and share price is £2.50 by year end. I will then review my position on further stakebuilding.



ramu kumar - 01 Aug 2013 - 13:55:29 - 6134 of 11746
Pointless blaming bear raids, shorters etc. IOF have themselves to blame - it's better to say we'll complete 4 plants by year end and overachieve. We must get a handle on the production numbers - it's difficult to forecast total production for 2013 and run rates at year end if there are going to be delays and inconsistent runtimes at plants.

IOF will deliver but PIs & management must expect slippage. Also, once plants are fully commissioned, output will not be anywhere near targets - we cannot apply simple maths and say each plant will deliver 300t on completion, this will take time as there are many variables.


Iofina - IOF
ramu kumar - 30 Jul 2013 - 14:30:49 - 5886 of 11746
Croc8, just being conservative. If you're seen all the previous posts, assumptions, forecasts etc., we are running behind time for various reasons - some very justifiable like relocations etc. However, we are still behind and it is my opinion that only 3 plants will be FULLY commissioned. Like to be proved wrong.

ramu kumar - 16 Oct 2013 - 12:13:50 - 9978 of 11746
10 weeks to get another 3 plants - not impossible but difficult

[che7win] 30/11/2013 09:19

Ramu,
Your post says more about you than superg.

It's all too easy to blame others for your investments. If you have done your own research, you should be quietly confident about the prospects here.

My biggest fear earlier this year was wild optimism on the board. When I first invested, I marked that optimism as a negative risk.

Now, I'm a lot happier with investors understanding that nothing runs smoothly.

I'm disappointed with delays, but I place them firmly with previous management and the expectations they set. I think current management will under promise and over deliver.

The potential remains.

Here are my honest thoughts since the last announcement.

I think the current share price reflects current plants in production and the delays announced.

A fair share price range currently is between 160p to 200p IMHO without further news. I say that because the market will need more confidence in the roll out to move ahead and I understand that. I don't think there is anything negative left to announce now and anyone who would have sold has sold on the delays. So the market should gently rise with the weighting towards net buyers.

The way things stand, if the current share price was to zoom up to 250p right now, I don't think that would be sustained.

I am more comfortable in the current price which I believe is well underpinned by the first three plants.

If the share price was to fall below 160p, I would buy more, even though I'm overweight.

If the water application was granted and announced, I would be an immediate buyer at the current price as I believe that should add an immediate 50p to the share price - minimum. If the share price remains below 200p on that event, I will be accumulating. It's worth 60p on the share price next year (running for 3/4 of the year after build), 80p on a full year.
That is a game changer and not priced in so I await news...potential for a very quick move IMHO.
Water news should get us above 200p.

Without water news, the other 3 plants (#4, #5 and #6) are needed to get us to stay above 200p IMHO.

This is my personal opinion, it takes many to make a market and my circumstances are different from others. I am overweight, so I don't wish to accumulate for instance but will on any drop. I have bought here from 62p to 225p.

I think the support is currently around 160p, there are ready buyers at that price, me being one of them.

This business will have a strong competitive moat, the market will start pricing that moat in with a high P/E, only a matter of time.

Patience required in this lull.

[the librarian] 30/11/2013 08:50

He does ramble a bit at times ramu, but I do find SG's contributions and those of many others useful.

For example


superg1 - 28 Nov 2013 - 22:31:42 - 11687 of 11746



So much for the recycling of produced water argument, it's too expensive as shown in this report.

26th Nov

hxxp://www.eco-business.com/news/fracking-bonanza-eludes-wastewater-recycling-investors/

Now considering the water is or should be in it's final stages, that is a useful bit of information that I hadn't been aware of... last I remember is others saying they will never sell the water... the link above sort of refutes that claim. Thanks for supplying it Superg, you didn't have to.

[norry2] 30/11/2013 07:45

I wish to do some calculations to work out what I would value this company at, and will do the research needed to get the sums as realistic as possible (from my perspective). Has anyone got a case they have prepared that I could use as a starting point?

I won't use your case as any basis of decision, but merely to save me some time in putting mine together.

Thanks.

[bogg1e] 30/11/2013 00:36

Ramu, are you on coke?

[johncsimpson] 30/11/2013 00:07

Jasones52 can you evidence* that comment of '200k under your belt' in your post 11739.

It's rather key to my thoughts but I'm not going to express them right now. TIA

*edit: OK found it . . .

[johncsimpson] 30/11/2013 00:07

I was just having a quick look before I went to bed – dear me. I'll do some checking in the morning ramu kumar.

For now though, this appears to be a hit and run assault ramu. A quick look at your posting history shows that before this evening, you've been absent from this board for 10 days during which time you've only posted on the RMG board - half a dozen times or so.

SG is a complex, multifaceted character and without him, a lot of 'investors' would not even be here. His contribution to this board is immense and I've often wondered where he gets the time and energy from, being married with teenage daughters if I remember correctly.

Yes, there are a number of disillusioned on this board and for many reasons but mostly they're peeved the price has disappointed since the highs of May and June. Well that's sad but tough, especially if you bought in at that time and I know from what's been said, some have. You pays your money and you takes your choice and there are no guarantees, which brings me to a polite question. Without being impertinent, under what circumstances did you arrive 'here' and what is your financial interest in IOF?

I'd like to ask you some other questions if I may but for now, as it's rather late here, I'll await your reply. Please feel free to ask me anything, absolutely anything you wish about my reasons for being here. I have nothing to hide and in the spirit of well-being and honesty it might be beneficial to all to be a totally transparent.

So to summarise, I'm only interested in two questions which are 'under what circumstances did you arrive 'here' and what is your financial interest in IOF?' If you feel you cannot answer the second question, fair enough, but if you cannot answer the first, I suspect in the eyes of many here you'll weaken whatever case you may have.

[ammons] 29/11/2013 23:51

I cannot understand why the same old ground is raked over time and time and time and time again re delays. They happen. Its not rocket science. Delays actually do happen believe it or not. As for ramu - you are entitled to your opinion. I personally do not think your opinion is worth a red cent. Possibly even less than that. SG1's research here, coupled with contributions by many others has been nothing short of terrific. Your post 11738 shows everyone here what a fool you are.

[monty panesar] 29/11/2013 22:45

I have been invested for over 18 months and can't complain at my return. In defence of SG the company had stated they expected to have built 6 plants by the end of the year. Reality is there will only be 3 or 4 built. If the company had delivered on their build plan I have no doubt the share price would be well over £2.50.
It is a timing issue not the fault of SG IMHO. Let's see where the price is once 6 plants are built.

[jasones52] 29/11/2013 22:44

Hey ramu kumar

Whichever way I look at you (front to back, back to front) something sucks.

Thought you might be good ol' netters, once – still thinking on that one.

If you're not, you certainly jog along at a similar gait...

You are transparently NOT what you claim to be: a mildly exasperated PI with 200k under your belt (still never told me whether that's £s or shares – have the courtesy to answer a straightforward question, please. 'courtesy'???... oh, google it, why don't you?).

So your agenda is....???

[escapetohome] 29/11/2013 22:15

You invested your money - Your choice.

[monty panesar] 29/11/2013 22:11

Ramu.Suggest you and your mates sell out on Monday morning. Worth taking a couple of minutes and thinking what IOF have achieved over the last 12 months. It's v impressive even if there have been a couple of hiccups through poor health and procurement.

Do you know another company with better turnover and profits growth than IOF? If so let us know.

[monty panesar] 29/11/2013 20:41

It's good to have the Thanksgiving week behind us. At least the Yanks only take a day and a half off for Christmas unlike the 2 weeks over here. Hoping for IO4 as a Xmas/New Year present and some news on water in between wouldn't go amiss either.

[che7win] 29/11/2013 20:08

Nearlyman,
Incredible that they all got away scot free, I lost multiples of roundups loss.

The government is as corrupt as the lot of them for letting them away with it.

Sorry for O/T

[freshvoice] 29/11/2013 18:04

There were a lot at it not just him, that's why.