Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[baguette] 29/11/2013 08:28

Todays RNS when seen with 2 previous ones just leaves me and doubtless others a bit quizzical - nothing more. It seemed strange recently that the CEO was awarded a lower level of options than his FD and Chairman. Then almost immediately Stuart Eaton resigned as non-exec due to a return to full time activities, yet so far has not resigned as non-exec of Nighthawk. The RNS was matter of fact rather than effusive thats all.

Its good that 2 others have granted options privately, this shows some solidarity but its all just a little bit strange and unusual and markets dont like that.

[rogerbridge] 29/11/2013 08:11

Great post SG 11687 recycling of produced water not an option.makes the IOF business case even stronger.

[superg1] 29/11/2013 08:08

Lib

Yes many talk takeover, but generally, they are in a mix of 100's of others in the sector.

The iodine sector has a history of it, SQM wanted to take out Cosayach as a competitor, that went on for years. No need now though as Cosayach seem to be on self destruct in the last year or two.

When you spend so much time looking at Chile and all miners, for problems, whether it is iodine, copper or gold, it can take you down paths you didn't know existed, and so the picture of potential interest, starts to open.

Those things take time, but I'm sure the business plan iof have will be highly attractive to some.

The biggest threat, if that's what we can call it, seems to be Chile, but Japan need to do some forward thinking as growth continues but their resource and output drops in the coming years.

In theory going on figures, the world demand will be up by 10,000 to 15,000 mt over the next ten years. The Japanese know the lowest cost operations relate to iodine extraction from brine, they've been doing that for 50 years.

[the librarian] 29/11/2013 08:08

Thank goodness for that John, I wouldn't like a positive RNS from IOF, they should have highlighted the negatives.... they are slipping.

[peterz] 29/11/2013 08:04

All this will have been organised before CEO appointment. Dont bother with mega pay packet just give me the gold options.

Setting up the ducks....

[1madmarky] 29/11/2013 07:57

SG1, I'd forgotten about uni, and yes it's all about getting things in place for the inevitable take-over. It does make me chuckle that in this case the future path for the company is so obvious.

[the librarian] 29/11/2013 07:55

What outside interest? Spill the beans. Having said that there is rarely a share on AIM where a T/O isn't mentioned :-)

[johncsimpson] 29/11/2013 07:54

Well, I can think of one way to spin this negatively Lib, (and I will come back later) but lets see what the market thinks.

[superg1] 29/11/2013 07:39

1MM

Jeff and George went to Uni together.

I don't think IOF will be around that long due to outside interest, so George needs some sort of prize at the end.

[the librarian] 29/11/2013 07:21

I'm waiting for the negative spins on that one :-), can't see one myself and George must be very pleased.

[meadow2] 29/11/2013 07:20

This latest RNS shows an interesting private option deal between the directors concerned. Each gets the benefits they want without the issue of any new shares.

[webby] 29/11/2013 07:18

Having speed read the rns I think that is further incentive (if he needs more)

[1madmarky] 29/11/2013 07:16

Curious, not seen this sort of thing before. And it's not dilutive for us. Oh well, come on IO4 you can make it by year end! :-D

[lignum] 28/11/2013 23:30

JohnC
Assuming the data is good (I have no reason to doubt this) then the share price can rise to c 1.95 (mid point high & low scenario) before Ennis start feeling pain. So all they are doing at the moment is running their profits, which they are entitled to. Have I understood this correctly?
In any case they know their gamble. This is a share where you cannot afford to miss the 7.00 RNS.

[johncsimpson] 28/11/2013 23:15

This is the link for my spreadsheet re Ennismore shorting Iofina,

As before,it's fully editable but I've only had time this last 30 mins or so to bring it up to date (so it just may have errors). I've added some additional scenarios since the last spreadsheet I posted but be aware that I'm 'formatting' to 2 decimal places so this is just a guide.

If anyone spots any glaring errors I'll gladly revise things. (Though if you do you'll probably be able to correct matters for yourselves).



Just click on the link, that's all you need do. No forms etc. to fill in.

[superg1] 28/11/2013 23:09

Gad

That was in addition to the non iodine product. Etchant gases are a growing market. IOF chem div has some unique products too, which are not listed, or know to anyone other than iof and the customer.

I was there standing next to croc

[engelo] 28/11/2013 23:00

SG: thanks for continued quality updates on water. Still find it amazing how much influence the shuffling of a medium sized file of papers apparently on an individual's desk has on IOF's reputation and the whole IOF trading and investing marketplace. Amounts to many millions of dollars. Wonder if he realises how much power he wields, and what impact each day's holiday or sickness makes. Presumably we can write off the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend, so restart the snakes and ladders process on Monday, possibly with a hangover :-)

Rambling on a bit but reminds me of the butterfly's wing in chaos theory :-)

[gadolinium] 28/11/2013 22:54

Super/Crosseyed
I think I was remembering this post by croc8 on the old thread following a presentation by Lance, which I did not attend. Although croc states its an iodine derivative, it seems more likely to me that Lance was referring to methyl fluoride which is listed on their product portfolio as an etching gas.
---------------------------------------------------

Croc8
21 Sep'12 - 12:54 - 7371 of 26255 0 0


Don't know if you caught the bit about the etching gas product used by Intel ( high margin iodine derivative from Iofina Chemicals). Apparently if intel go through with their plans it will need all the gas IOFINA can produce. Nice.

Croc8

[superg1] 28/11/2013 22:31

So much for the recycling of produced water argument, it's too expensive as shown in this report.

26th Nov

[superg1] 28/11/2013 21:40

Gad

I think it's to do with the Gov, US fisheries or something like that, a product where only two companies make it.

I asked at the first presentation, I'm trying to recall details. Something like a 5 year contract spread over 7 years, with a break in it, as in the rns.

Benny

It's probably due to plants delays and the like, but certainly equipment arrived on 31st October from a company in the Ukraine that makes iodine plant equipment. If any more arrives I should be able to spot it.

As for water I hear they think the permit won't come, I think it will 100%, that's investing for you, but research does help.

The natural response for PIs would be to post such info, but not here. I've been tempted, but held off. :-)

The web is an amazing place to track just about anything. Sometimes it's buried so deeply it's takes months to find, but it's there.

[roundup] 28/11/2013 19:37

stupidboypike:- Now there's a name from the past; trust this share does a bit better than Meldex.

[gadolinium] 28/11/2013 19:07

Crosseyed, Super,
I seem to remember the contract was for an electronic etching gas, probably methyl fluoride (a non-iodine product).

[benny hanna] 28/11/2013 18:51

I wonder why Ennismore is shorting? If they think the price will be lower at some date in the future, the I guess it makes sense to take advantage of the market machinations. If, on the other hand, they are shorting to "manipulate" the price, forcing it down, does that not cross the line? The markets are really not free of artificial influences, but wouldn't this be obvious to the "regulators"? Where did they get access to that many shares? My guess is that they are mostly "naked" shorts, and that is supposed to be illegal as well. We should all ask our brokers to give us our certificates, don't you think?

[superg1] 28/11/2013 18:07

Jc

No problem It's a nice supply to keep the price down for those that want them.
There is a very common theme of shares Ennis are short on, and the posters that appear on the relevant threads, with a distinct absence of the same posters, on other shares being shorted by other funds.

Personally I think the water permit will create some interest, just about every note talks about it being a lucrative opportunity, and in all they say they haven't priced it in.

Plants delayed etc, may have prompted it, but to ignore water is a bit stupid imo. But then if they don't think the permit will come then no worries, eh!

It's only 9 weeks away max, as the 120 days runs out. Let them carry on, it's a drop in the ocean compared to the funds long, and they won't have a clue re timings.

Their list of current and recent shorts includes big losers for them. The only positions they seem to have closed in recent months are losses.

At the end of the day it's a big chuck of shares they have to buy back at some point.

[johncsimpson] 28/11/2013 17:00

stupidboypike - I see LEEMING answered your question . . .

and Ennismore added yet again yesterday - that's three times in 7 days, yet another 114,552* shares. (*All my numbers are a bit iffy because the figures disclosed are to 2 decimal places but they give an idea).

I'll update my spreadsheet and post a link but it will be much later this evening.

added: that's an update on Dorset's post 11677 to 1.53%.