Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[freshvoice] 01/12/2013 17:43

What's with twin tower ETH. Could be seen in bad taste :-(

[superg1] 01/12/2013 17:42

Escape

Normally I'd say ignore such posts, but a few things fit, but then it depends on what any individual thinks is an rns with a price moving factor v a big rns which is clearly worded, to indicate a decent move.

I can think of 1 rns that I think is near term, but then 3/4 others that could feature, with a mix of major ones included in them. Timings unknown, and may never happen.

I work to try and back things up, before ever mentioning them. Some say a 'surprise' is coming, pretty vague that one, but I have good confidence in who said that.

Never mind all the rumours and whispers though, many are here for the apparent prospects of the business.

However sometimes there is no smoke without fire, wasn't there a rumour about hawk recently and a neighbour hitting good oil.

Next thing we knew the postings of the rumours, were backed up by a news releases, and other evidence found on the web which proved the rumour.

But then some are not rumours, as rumours are unverified accounts.

The only reason they are called rumours here, is because of the cyberspace issue.
If there is no direct reference to link for all to see, then it's a rumour.

E.G.

I have seen a few rumours posted on threads over the last few years, and for certain posters I don't take them as rumours at all, but probably fact.

The vast majority of course, are not rumours, but BS.

[noli] 01/12/2013 17:04

I was in that one jam, very interesting share indeed. They are working on getting the product into cars, but cost was an issue and also reducing the size. Mining companies they are working on at the moment and doing ok.

[escapetohome] 01/12/2013 16:50

More from Maisie-Dog over on the iii site

[uppompeii] 01/12/2013 15:36

Only issue here is that the share price hasn't recovered well nor quickly enough for some.
I would say its de-risked a fair bit from the summer months in terms of proven production and other progress etc etc, though clearly not without hiccups. All anyone has really lost is 6 months of possible growth in other shares, if prospects are only half true it will mean recouping that fairly easily. Though it is my worst performer since July!

[superg1] 01/12/2013 15:22

Crazy

re water. Yes a strategic decision, which is twofold.

The water rights process is not an infinite source. Bob Shaver said that he expects rights to be fully appropriated in a couple of years. That was a while back

In other words there is a limit, not published as yet, to which they will allow the overall extraction amount to go to, then they won't issue any more permits.

IOF have rights swaps in place, but why use those, which are already factored into the limit, when they can apply for their own. That adds to the future potential for them, BUT, also hastens the end of award of rights, by grabbing a section of what is left.

The situation for others complicates it even further, as the authorities very much favour surface water extraction and wish to protect aquifers. Underground aquifers can diminish quickly but take a long time to replenish, it's all documented in their various reports and guidance. Many existing permits are for aquifers, it has never been an issue in the past, but it is now.

I suppose IOF have the option to pursue a rights swap at any point they wish, customer urgency may be a driving factor there.

If rights do become fully appropriated, for any further growth, in theory, it's the more expensive recycling, or other options, which could include pricing others out of water contracts to attract a supplier.

If that situation ever arises and fresh water demand is high, then the rights swap becomes a gem.

Not ignoring the fact that they could simply produce and clean water from Atlantis, discharge it into the river systems, and take it out further downstream.

It's an old rns, but it's clearly worded-;

'Iofina has been issued a water discharge permit to store in the adjacent reservoir'

The key point being 'store', they would own that water and could take it out downstream.

The current permit is for 30k bpd, but they can move that amount up.

I read somewhere that the daily storage capacity of the Fresno is 500k bpd. So in theory if the demand was there, iof could produce and clean up to 500k bpd, of water they would then own, no rights needed, and take it out downstream.

The US fisheries want the rights swap deal, due to the Bowdoin nature reserve, which sits between Atlantis and the Bakken.

Looking at the very big picture. IOF rights could amount to, all they obtain via the normal route. The old plan was 200k bpd for ND and Montana, but now seems to be 200k bpd for each, if they manage to achieved that, they may not. It may be back to the original 100k in each, but I think the plan is for more.

Add in the max storage capacity as a water supplier 500k bpd (Atlantis production), and then you can potentially add some rights swaps on top.

1 depot is a nice bonus, but I don't think they will be stopping there.

Titus Yes we don't need water, but finally it seems that the permit is near to it's prelim determination to grant, with 45 days of a public notice period before final approval.

When that is done they can plan to build a depot, and get on with it. So that's why it gets a mention, it's now becoming relevant on the revenue front, maybe even in H1 14.

As suggested myself and Sandbag will go and construct it if necessary

[crazycoops] 01/12/2013 14:10

Titus, thank you for highlighting the risk factors from my 2012 post. What I didn't write (but did on the original ADVFN thread last year) was the risk of 'unknown unknowns'. Under this heading I would put Lance's illness and subsequent resignation as CEO. Not only did this have an effect on share price sentiment but it also led to some execution risk playing out. While the decision to locate IO2 onwards in Oklahoma was a strategic decision that caused some perceived delays (albeit for completely the right reasons), I understand that during the leadership void this year there were a couple of operational mistakes around purchasing decisions that have led to the delays we are experiencing at the moment with IO4 and IO5.

There has also been a perceived delay on water which was originally signalled for generating revenues from spring this year. That expectation was when we all thought that IOF would use their rights swap option (i.e. minimal application process). As things turned out they haven't used that option yet. It is a matter of conjecture precisely why but one school of thought is that they are going hold that option back until gaining water permits becomes more difficult. If so, that could turn out to be an astute strategic decision. In the meantime, IOF are establishing themselves as a water supplier by applying for a permit in Montana using the same application process as everyone else. The market has heard delays (although interestingly, no broker notes include a value for water) whereas it could turn out to add significantly more shareholder value in due course.

Overall, I think IOF have made good progress this year with a lot to look forward to next year. My sense is that the BoD expect to be taken over in either 2014 or 2015 and therefore, are focused on maximising shareholder value to obtain the best price - they are, after all, significant shareholders themselves. In fact, I would go so far as to say that IOF offer a much lower investment risk now than they did a year ago and it won't take much for the value to out here.

[monty panesar] 01/12/2013 10:05

Not sure why people should be feeling negative when 3 or 4 plants should be completed in next 3 or 4 months.

The management just need to crack on with the build program, focus on the profits and the share price will look after itself. ASOS had challenges along the way, periods where the price went down but these proved to be a minor blip when you look back in time.

Some investors(or probably should say traders)expect things to happen overnight when if they think about the company's they work for and how long it takes things to be implemented to create profits growth they will start to appreciate things don't just happen instantaneously. Has certainly been the case in my business experience over the years!

[johncsimpson] 01/12/2013 09:02

Festario 1 Dec'13 - 00:19 - 11792 of 11794

I find it ironic that on a day when the IOF share price finished 2% up, the likes of Hitsha and Ramu Kumar decide to lose the plot.

Yeh and some.

[superg1] 01/12/2013 07:56

Hitsha

nothing wrong with a constructive rant and moan

I did a complete U turn on FUM a couple of years back after I spotted what I through was a big problems, sorted now but share price languishing as some big investors lost patience.

If I thought IOF had major problems, I'd be off, simple, but the fact is I see strong growth ahead, for reasons as explained in great detail in the past.

So while the business plan is on place I'm happy, but it also has a lot to do with competitors.

We said Chile would go backwards and that was against what the finance experts said.

We said SQM and co wouldn't like prices near $45. It's just above that, and most have gone defensive, by closing mines, and cancelling expansion projects, withdrawing applications (as evidenced in recent days).

It's simple logic, there is no way that Chile who cover 60% of the world's iodine are going to do so as a loss making venture. In those circs they should be making bundles of cash, but they over-cooked the race to get in on high prices.

It's obvious that anyone that can add to the market significantly at low opex, could dominate the sector.

There is only one country and one company currently doing that,. Commercial resources are scarce. Plenty of barriers to entry. with the US looking like the largest iodine brine source in the world, IOF have a patent practically stopping anyone else chasing that business in the US.

They have samples from around the world, and I believe nothing significant has turned up of interest on that front.

[hitsha3] 01/12/2013 00:24

Why would i be bearish if i have money inveted, and what is the reason for me to be bullish right now, don't talk rubbish be quite.

[hitsha3] 01/12/2013 00:16

I am still invested here so i am concerne. Why not ask questions that other people dont, it's my money.

[hitsha3] 01/12/2013 00:12

No BEERS MATE JUST CONCERNE. ANd why not if you have so much invested.

[sandbag] 30/11/2013 23:37

"CF was very simplistic about that business stating how basic the needs are to progress once you have a permit. Someone asked about the Montana winter being barrier to near term completion. CF dismissed that as not an issue, I'm not sure I entirely agree, as it looks a tad nippy up there in winter time."

It was actually me who asked that.
----------------------------

"On timelines though it looks like a spring build anyway, if all goes well.

If they haven't sorted a contractor yet, I've got a cement mixer, and it seems sandbag knows the pipeline business, so we'll go and sort it."

LOL! Have suitcase will travel.

[superg1] 30/11/2013 23:33

Hitsha

Yes it can be frustrating but there is one share that I know well.

Before delivery it was over 3 times the price it is now. But they didn't have delays.

Well now it's a 10 bagger, but not in the normal sense of what we call 10 baggers.

The price is 10 times less, than the target prices some brokers were sure it would go to.

This is the AIM, it's the sector of growth companies. I haven't seen one yet, that has delivered anywhere near what they promised, some are supposed to be fliers by now.

If I think back a couple of years, and note share like CRA, SRT, SLE, BAO, BMR PXS, ORE, AVN, TRT and many others.

Those were the tips and hot shares I was seeing posted on many threads, RHPS, other tip sites, nutty analysts and so on. Some are way down, some are down, some are roughly the same as they were years back.

The point is if we took the time to list all of the hot shares, from 2/3 years back, we would probably find just handful have actually moved on in value, and progress. Some of those above shares are still good prospects.

Right now there are shares that are not producing any revenue, and won't for a few years, but they carry high market caps and share prices with each thread thinking it's the next big share. History tells us that the vast majority will be back to historic lows in the future, and the new promising shares will replace them, just a few will have done well, out of the many out there.


Look at Pure circle, a £750m M/C for a company on losses. Growth yes, hype yes due to the names Coke and Pepsi. Share price representing £50m profit p.a. on a 15 PE. It looks like a potential house of cards, it's a long way ahead of itself, and must surely be facing a big dip down at some point in this current climb. I can't quite work out why the bear market hasn't spotted it.

[titus10] 30/11/2013 23:22

So now WATER is hogging the limelight here (the hitherto capital letter insistence from our leader that it is NOT IMPORTANT seemingly now forgotten), alongside the inevitable snapping and snarling accompanying a sideways ranging sp, in contrast to the equally inevitable euphoria and shooting star price projections when share price is rising.

Time to revisit the overview, perhaps?

Almost a year ago (20/12/12), crazycoops posted an excellent piece on Motley Fool I believe, which ended with the following:

*What are the risks?

There is execution risk – profitability is dependent on the company executing its ambitious business plan.

There is market risk – the baby could get thrown out with the bathwater if markets crash.

There is the risk of a hostile takeover – sooner or later the other iodine producers will realise what IOF have and that they will become a major player in the iodine market. To some extent IOF have covered this risk by building up reserves through their brine contracts (which are rumoured to be 19,000 MT per annum) but there is no guarantee that sufficient investors will not take the money and run at £2-3 per share.*

Could these three sensible balancing considerations be behind the market's present treatment of IOF?

1. The rollout subsequently became delayed ("execution").

2. Western stock markets are now extended, testing all-time highs ("market risk").

3. "Under the radar" is now a stale cliché, seemingly, and it seems reasonable to expect increasing focus on IOF by affected parties as the operation develops, whilst nervous PIs, eyeing pie still in the sky as time passes, become disenchanted and liable to weaken their hold ("---there is no guarantee that sufficient investors will not take the money and run at £2-3 a share".

[warrensearle] 30/11/2013 22:48

Few beers tonight again Hitsha? Been a while since you last lost it let's have another caps lock style rant ??

[naphar] 30/11/2013 22:35

Well hitsha, what do you think the answer is to your question?
Why does it have to be iodine OR water that moves the price? Why can't it be both?

Iodine is being produced from three plants and recycling currently. More plants are coming, but are late. The more plants online, the more iodine is produced, the more should be sold to generate revenue etc etc. that results in greater profits which should increase the share price.

We don't have a water permit yet. When we preliminary determination, we might get a share price boost, we might not. The same could be said for an approved permit. We just don't know for sure how the market might react. What we can say is, when we start generating revenue and profits from water, the share price will have to react.

I understand you are frustrated. I am frustrated because I have friends and family that bought in at higher prices than this after I told them about IOF (although I told them at prices lower than this). But no-one can tell you what's more important for the share price short medium or long term, because there are too many unknowns.

That said, I think many people still believe the iodine side is the most important, and water, plus oil and helium if they go anywhere, are nice bonuses. It could be that water will give a quicker share price boost than iodine in the short term, if we get the first permit and build a terminal quickly enough, after all, as I said this morning, the first permit could be worth about £1.19 on a PE of 15, for a full year rights if we go it alone. But we don't know how quickly we would start selling water, if it would be a JV or 100% ours, so in the short term I don't think anyone can tell you what will have the most impact.

[mikkydhu] 30/11/2013 22:32

hitsha3,

The share price is the plaything of the market. From time to time it is a proper reflection of the business success of the company, but most of the time it is either too high or too low. Through boards like this you can gain confidence when the price is on the low side as long as you can see that the business is sound.

At the moment there are delays in the roll out of new plants. This may well be the cause of the poor share price. But does this really matter? I take confidence from at least three things:

1. Iofina achieved proof of concept with the continuing successful production of iodine from IO1. It's cheap and clean. They have the IP sewn up and the oil producers,too. All that is very important.

2. Iofina may have had delays, but I am very impressed with their problem-solving abilities and their track record of continually making improvements. Read again the RNS of 20 November to see how IO1 and IO2 are getting better and better and are expected to continue to be doing so. This suggests to me a versatile and dynamic company. I really like that.

3. Because of the earlier fundraising, low opex and ongoing derivative sales, they have enough money to keep the roll out of plants going indefinitely.

And given all the above and their "disruptive" technology and clever business plan, and the difficulties of their Chilean competitors, they should achieve iodine market dominance eventually.

That's good enough for me.

[hitsha3] 30/11/2013 22:10

i am getting fustrated becuase i did invest my money at 2.30, so you guys are happy but not me, specialy when you are late comer. Not everyboady is in same position as some of you guys, so you have to understand that.