Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[nashwan123] 02/12/2013 14:20

phoenixs

Purely coincidental but still more to come!!

[king_roster_iii] 02/12/2013 14:09

Would love to think that was caused by Ennismore having a quick look to see what would happen to the price if they start buying.

[captain_kurt] 02/12/2013 14:06

Not the best start of the month for Ennismore...and it's about to get alot worse for them imo

[malachey] 02/12/2013 13:59

nice bump up!

[phoenixs] 02/12/2013 13:59

Nashwan, what an effect you just had on the sp!!

[nashwan123] 02/12/2013 13:51

Re my post 11715 I can confirm RSI on way up with at least 30 ticks of headroom and 50 day MACD has now crossed the 200 day line. More to come!

[superg1] 02/12/2013 11:50

Phoenixs

$35 may be too low. The fact is Chile cover near 60% of the market.

Clearly SQM have dropped production by about 3000mt, they claim, others raising production has been an issue.

One they name is Algorta. They seem to have $35 per kg opex at least. They need $30m for a future pipeline.

There are various points of reference to suggest some Chile producers are not playing with a straight bat, on their claims. Algorta claimed they would produce more. They claim they will do 3000mt this year. However the maths in a release doesn't add up, and it looks like they did around 1000mt in H1.

Overall for them profits seemed to fit around $10 per kg in the H1 period, which saw higher price on iodine than now. That tends to suggest they are on opex of over $40 per kg. H2 on lower prices should hit them quite hard, so how can they expand in the way they claim.

SQM are the cheapest opex Chile producers, but if some of the market has gone from SQM to others in Chile, then the overall average production cost has gone up.

Therefore it if went to $35 per kg, Cos, Algorta, Sirocco, SCM and co are all looking like going out of business. SQM old mines are too expensive on opex due to resource depletion, so they will stay closed.

Those smaller mines going offline would have a bigger impact, than the Japan issue, on the amount of volume disappearing from the market.

Or in simple terms, it would be like the US losing it's entire supply.

So now it's a balancing act in Chile, re pricing. They control the market price. $100, $80 and $60 plus per kg was a no-brainer for all in Chile, so they went after it, without thinking about the own goal they have scored.

Chile still has rising costs, and tax increases on miners to come, so $60 to $70 would be my guess for Chile prices in the next year or so. If mines close on the low prices, then it may happen more swiftly.

If IOF become a major producer materially affecting Chile exports, then mines will surely close.

[phoenixs] 02/12/2013 10:59

Whilst on the surface Ennismore's short position is an irritation, in a few weeks or months time we may be delighted that they chose to short the stock. Buying back 2m or thereabouts of stock will not be easy if IOF achieve the rollout and water permits are issued.

Re iodine prices, they may well have bottomed out by now, but the key is how profitable if at all are the producers. It appears that $40-$45 per kilo is hardly profitable for some if at all. It wouldn't do any harm for prices to fall to say $35 so as to clear them out completely. Once that is done prices will rise and IOF will be there to reap.

[superg1] 02/12/2013 10:06

I'm not sure they will CK, they seem to like to let things run until they the water is so deep little sunlight can break through (Ocado and others)

It does seem a bit of a courageous bet, considering all the other background pieces of the jigsaw. Timings for those are unknown.

Water should feature on news soon.

Personally I expect the permit to be awarded, and more applications to follow for both states.

The more time that passes the greater the risk becomes for such a position it seems.

Iodine prices should bottom out, if not already, and if mines go offline a climb will follow. Besides that SQM, Sirocco and others seem to be making defensive moves to make that happen.

Sirocco actual quote their move is to create higher contract prices for their iodine.

They will disappear imo as time goes on.

[captain_kurt] 02/12/2013 08:32

With rumours that Ennismore are looking to reduce their short position and significant shortterm newsflow on the horizon....I'm not ruling out £2 before Xmas imo

[superg1] 02/12/2013 07:03

Escape

Lack of TA knowledge posting skills, he/she should have put the, 'but it could go down' at the end of it. The news though in theory should have created the move.

[escapetohome] 01/12/2013 23:19

I agree I value Hurricane's one liners - he is almost always correct.

But I visited the FUM board one day and remembered this comment from him (see below) since many of you have invested and I wanted to check it out as an investment - The share seems to have been in terminal decline since the comment - so he is not always right I would add.

On FUM

Hurricane. - 09 Sep 2013 - 07:13:26 - 8359 of 9019
Back to past highs by the end of this month.

Only buyers now.

Ignis f@@ked up again

[noli] 01/12/2013 21:30

JS, some posters on here only turn up every now and again, Hurricane is one and anger taxes is another, his son turns up also looking for his dad, lol. The funny thing is they always seem to be spot on.

[noli] 01/12/2013 20:49

From memory Hurricane seems to be spot on. So i have no reason to doubt the posts.

[naphar] 01/12/2013 20:41

I forgot about that fresh, seems to fit in, but I have no way of knowing.

[freshvoice] 01/12/2013 20:37

There was the large late trade cancelled the next day?

[naphar] 01/12/2013 20:36

John, 11809 - No, it was not the main point. But Hurricane has often come on here with one liners that I, and I believe others, take notice of. So if there is a reason why that post was iffy, I would be interested to hear it, especially as I am sure Ennismore did indeed request, and receive, a presentation.

Whether they were worried, or simply looking for info to back up their reasons for shorting, I don't know. Nor do i know why they increased recently, Maisie Dogs explanation/story sounds plausible, but one of many possibilities.

[johncsimpson] 01/12/2013 20:11

naphar 11808 - well . . . . I said 'iffy' because I was unsure. It falls into what SG was saying earlier about having no link to substantiate it. Plus Ennismore have since increased their short.

I don't Know; it's 10 weeks ago and it's a solitary reference with no 'evidence' to back it up. It would be good if Hurricane were to come and clear up / explain the point because the implication of the comment is (IMO) an inference that Ennismore were worried, whereas their recent actions show a totally different stance - unless, of course, they're bluffing.

I'll have no difficulty apologising if my doubts prove to be unfounded.

Added: that (least we forget) was not the main point of my comment to SG.

[naphar] 01/12/2013 19:32

John, why was that post so iffy and dishonest?

If I remember correctly, they were asking for a presentation and iofina obliged.

[noli] 01/12/2013 19:22

We might get an arnold schwarzenegger rns, lol

[johncsimpson] 01/12/2013 19:18

Is that a clue SG? Hurricane posted a very iffy post here (8289) about 10 weeks ago. I don't think that was an honest call and I'm not the only one . . .

[superg1] 01/12/2013 18:28

He/she has got one or two right before.

A bit like that Hurricane poster.

[escapetohome] 01/12/2013 17:45

just a bit of tittle tattle - whilst we wait SG - no harm done. I am looking forward to the 'surprise'.