Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 20/5/2015 08:49

Btw SQM opex works out at $22 per kg, up from $19.60 2 years ago.

That's with them cutting back on the higher costs mines and a very favourable change in the exchange rate over the 2 years.

They also benefit on opex levels due to other products being produced from the same initial processes.

Some mines don't have that revenue route to offset costs. The seawater lot in particular must be suffering badly while SQM keep the price low. They must be loss making. Pre the Peso weakening Algorta costs were $35 to $38 per kg.

[che7win] 20/5/2015 07:23

Oklahoma overturning local oil restrictions.....more positive news :-)

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 20/5/2015 07:13

'Something dodgy no doubt following on from the recent events'

Aye...

[superg1] 20/5/2015 07:06

To explain SQM's current circs

9,600mt produced in 2014, 8,800mt sold. 400mt came from the closed mine as they leached out existing caliche piles.

'During 2014, María Elena obtained production from caliche ore exploited in prior years' (listed as 400mt).

So that should mean 9,200mt to be produced this year, a 5% increase in sales on 8,800mt raises their sales to that figure.

One big query is their claim re the NV mine. They restarted the closed Iris plant in August 14 and show the same production at the mine as in previous years. However they processed 17% less caliche which should have meant a 1000mt production drop at that mine. So it's a bit of a mystery at the moment re the missing caliche or the 1000mt of iodine from thin air.

Something dodgy no doubt following on from the recent events, perhaps they had some inventory unaccounted for that they needed to slot in somewhere.

[superg1] 20/5/2015 06:45

I look forward to the SQM conference call later.

The first paragraph is funny, they deliberately took the price there. It will be interesting to see what analyst questions are later. It seems from the equilibrium comment and increased demand that they won't be taking the price lower.

Iodine demand growing due to the price, their expected 5% sales increase will use up all they currently produce. Separately in their form 20-F it has details showing other iodine mines were closed to reduce opex.



'In line with expectations, we saw average prices in the iodine and derivative business line decrease, and when compared to the three month period ended March 31, 2014, prices dropped almost 30% to approximately US$30/kg.

We believe the market is approaching its supply and demand equilibrium.We also believe that lower prices have helped to stimulate demand; we have also seen new uses related to the plastics industry in Asia. This demand growth has had a positive impact our sales volumes, and sales volumes during the three month period ended March 31, 2015 were over 14% higher than volumes seen during the same three month period in 2014. We expect sales volumes for 2015 to exceed sales volumes seen in 2014 by over 5%.'

[bargainbuyer] 19/5/2015 23:20

I'm actually quite surprised little Tern has had a mention or two on this thread.
For a company valued at just £3.5 million, there has been some quite stunning developments over there in the last couple of weeks.
Management forecasting £10 million per annum revenue from just one contract alone and there are several lined up!
Cryptosoft is operating in the Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine 2 Machine (m2m) sectors and has developed an encryption product that is absolutely essential to these markets.
The team assembled to take Cryptosoft forward is an all star line up of top data encryption executives. New CEO appointed today.
For those not up to speed, IoT is set to become bigger than the Internet as we know it today. Almost every known product will be connected to the Internet via IoT, this includes things like light switches, refrigerators, heaters, cars, etc etc.
Almost every analyst is forecasting market size into the trillions.
Lots of quality research on the TERN thread for anybody who wishes to take a look.
Not really a traders share but for someone looking for an investment with even a 12-18 month view may see some spectacular returns.
Besides, select IoT stocks could enjoy a period of boom rivalling the days of dot com boom.
Dyor chaps but I strongly believe an opportunity has presented itself which should not be overlooked.

Good night all.

[woodpeckers] 19/5/2015 19:41

So you won't be getting out of bed that day then monkey....

[monkeymagic3] 19/5/2015 19:03

I'm hoping for 4p on the market cap as a start. The share price will follow.

[bogg1e] 19/5/2015 18:08

Lets look at this a bit differently. The licence is for 200,000 bpd over three licences. This is the first of three licences. It is not for the full 80k but is a bit less, 65-75k bpd off top of head. So it depends on whether the JV pays for 1/3rd of the licence capacity or for the full 200k bpd licence up front. We shall have to wait to see how much value it adds to the revenues, but bocker is right, its about perception and so how Lance spends it will help determine new broker targets. The market knows its underpriced, thats why we have started to see a "bowl" beginning to form with us exiting the bottom (uuurgh!) and beginning a new upward trend. Huzzah. Hence my recent top ups at 32, 33.5, 34.75 and 35.25. Yum. Its looking good going forward. Hopefully not famous last words.

[madchick] 19/5/2015 17:55

Just to clarify, I divided tthe amount of a potential JV (10 million) by the number of shares (I estimated 125 million, but it's a bit more) to get the 4p, although now I've done it again, it's come out at 8p, so heaven knows what I was doing. I did it twice, so made the same mistake twice, whatever I did! So, yes, actually the 20% uplift was more like it!

That's different from saying that's what it's worth, because obviously we'll have a water business and expansion plans if it all happens. However, trying to keep my feet on the ground, I'm wondering whether the market will price any of the future water sales or future expansion in until it actually happens and whether it will only take what's on the table (10 million) and then still discount a bit in the mean time until confidence grows that something will actually happen.

Just putting my pessimistic hat on so that I'm not too disappointed when the share price flops when we finally get the news!! Looks like I overdid it a bit. Really don't know how I got that 4p now. I shouldn't have tried thinking, it never really works.

[bazzerp] 19/5/2015 17:50

For others like me - crystal meth as mentioned by bocker (the last line of the first paragraph is interesting - an anniversary present for the wife perhaps ? ).

[rhwillcoll] 19/5/2015 16:30

bocker: I think GMP had the water down as an immediate 35p a share price rise?
But I don't wish to ramp :-). Slowly slowly catchee monkey etc etc: very slowly in this case: but each day gone is one day nearer etc etc.

[chumbo] 19/5/2015 16:29

20-30p may still not be enough if the simianettes are hot.....

[bocker01] 19/5/2015 16:24

Sorry Mark, somehow I had 40000 barrels a day in my mind! think your right! In which case double my numbers. MM3 shrug off the simian companions and get out of bed!20p to 30p. Though I think the main thing is the change in perceptions and the iodine growth from a company that can spin off cash faster than than a crystal meth monopoly!

[chumbo] 19/5/2015 15:59

Hi Bocker. Apols if I'm out of kilter but shouldn't the 40,000 bpd read 80,000, which you then adjust for the various bits and bobs including IOF's half share? I know there's been some speculation that the HE outcome is not necessarily binary and a third option is a grant for a reduced amount but if memory serves I think the application is for 80k bpd. Point taken re the non-water related benefits of the water permit grant though.

[bocker01] 19/5/2015 15:41

Depends on whose on either side Mm3 could be a minus 5p or a positive 50 plus

[monkeymagic3] 19/5/2015 15:35

I don't get out of bed for less than 5p.

[bocker01] 19/5/2015 14:51

Obviously I was ignoring hot water which would increase my guess a lot!

[bocker01] 19/5/2015 14:50

Well Mark I was assuming 75 percent. If we do a joint venture for 10 mill and the partner spends 5 or 6 on developing it we also have a base case for our share being worth the same. But I think the real value is in the change in perception, accelerated growth opportunities and repaying Panacea etc

[chumbo] 19/5/2015 14:07

Bocker, are you assuming we only sell half of the first permit's capacity?

[bocker01] 19/5/2015 11:23

40000 (barrels)x 0.5 (50 cents profit a barrel x 365 (days in year) x 0.75 (75% pumping productivity)x(1/1.57)(dollar rate)x 0.5 (IOf'S JV share) gives GBP 1.75m per annum profit before tax. So based on a PE of 10, it seems worth 10p to 15p. There should be growth in water as well as iodine as more applications for more water are made. 10m of JV cash to buy new iodine plants should double iodine production.Which would rapidly spin off enough cash for accelerated growth. 4p is a tad miserly.

[phoenixs] 19/5/2015 10:04

IMO if the results are ok, recent production is shown to be increasing substantially and the water permit is granted, then there will not only be an share price based on earnings but one that also takes into account some expectation for the future.

[meb123] 19/5/2015 09:48

Regarding Madchicks comment that maybe water is worth 4p per share . Seems a bit low to me . If water is not priced in already and we get £10m for a JV . As current market value is almost £50m , that would suggest a 20% uplift. Or is this too simplistic?

[superg1] 19/5/2015 08:32

I forget the poster but he did out some objection info up, so potentially yes someone could become aware of it pre announcement. Just covering the bases.

[freshvoice] 19/5/2015 08:29

Where the previous information came from.