Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 13/5/2015 13:07

Theres an element of truth in everything. Having seen the responses from the company regarding the delay in the publication of the accounts and given that Lance will be over to give presentations to hedge funds, etc, its obvious that he needs extra time to demonstrate how Iofina has turned the corner from loss making to profitability and that both revenues and production are growing. yhis is what the market has been waiting two years for. If he needs two more weeks to get the presentations together then so be it. I think whether we show a profit or not, Lance will reassure the market that the delays are over and steady growth is finally set to begin. I expect the share price to double over the coming quarter, and if if the Chilean water rights law is passed in june, we may see it double again in Q4. That wouldn't be difficult when we consider that on most metrics Iofina is undervalued in comparison with its aim peers by quite a long way.

[alphacharlie] 13/5/2015 12:49

Hard to tell unless you've been here for some time and even then, you're still left wondering.

[danwaits] 13/5/2015 12:08

P'd O Newswire: Helena Montana 05/13/2015.

Governor Steve Bullock continued to refuse to ask questions with regard to the controversial water permit application by the British company Iofina and directed all enquires to Justice Solomon King, the hearing examiner for the Montana Water Bureau.
While the nation awaits on Solomon Kings verdict on the case, he has received sympathetic support from numerous members of the State's legislature and Judiciary.

"I don't envy him one bit" said State Supreme Court Justice Mirabelle Korn, "he's dealing with John Ames, one of our Nation's most prominent and able legal advocates, who's courtroom oratory and dexterity are the stuff of legend"

We spoke with Mr. Ames who was busy at work in his family's water depot. Whilst filling a billy can for native American Nike Blackfoot, Mr. Ames said: "What most people don't realise is that this Iofina Company is English, and they want to take American water and sell it back to us, the whole thing is ridiculous".

"John Ames has been a godsend to the Native American people" said Nike Blackfoot, "without his depot, we would have no water for the cisterns in our casino. Our women and children could've died of thirst"

Asked to comment on the delays in the outcome to objections to grant his company a water extraction permit, Dr. Thomas M. Becker, CEO and President of Iofina plc stated; "It's just a delay is all."
When also asked about the company's decision to postpone the release of the 2014 accounts, Dr. Becker replied "It's just a delay is all".
When asked about his company's failure to reach the production volumes previously touted, he also replied "It's just a delay is all."

[rogerbridge] 13/5/2015 09:54

hxxp://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/business/energy-environment/drillers-answer-low-oil-prices-with-cost-saving-innovations.html?_r=0

Interesting read

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 13/5/2015 00:23

'The negative will have been the iodine price fall but the fall in OPEX costs will have outweighed that.'

No it won't.

[che7win] 12/5/2015 22:33

Monty,
Excellent post, you share my view.:

Monty Panesar 12 May'15 - 20:10 - 32478 of 32479 5 0

[superg1] 12/5/2015 22:10

Monty

All I heard was 2 mill of savings made, I don't know if is across the year US$ or H2.

From results they mention 40% savings on admin staff cuts.

It was said a number of unnecessary middle management employees had 'appeared'.

Lance and Jeff also took a cut to £1 for the rest of 2014. CFO went as did the CEO with Tom CEO of the chem div covering the lot.

[monty panesar] 12/5/2015 20:10

Thought I would give myself a rain check on monthly iodine production:
H1 2014 23.3mt
H2 2014 31.3mt
Q1 2015 42.6mt

The difference the increased production makes to the bottom line is huge as almost all the costs remain the same. The negative will have been the iodine price fall but the fall in OPEX costs will have outweighed that. If they get production up to 50t per month then OPEX is probably in the mid teens and that might mean a gross profit in the region of $750k per month. The gearing effect on profitability increases dramatically when production exceeds 35t per month IMHO.

Dyor etc etc.

[monty panesar] 12/5/2015 19:26

SG,

I just checked back as well. Cash at the end of June was $6,270,754. Cash as you say around $7.5m at end of Q3. Basic math suggests they may have been making $400k per month however that might have been flattered by lower inventories.
Worth remembering year end inventories are usually high due to customers deferring orders until Q1 for their own cashflow. This may not be the case this year as sales appeared to be stronger in Q4.

SG. Any ideas what the admin costs are likely to be in H2 after they took a knife to them last April?

[superg1] 12/5/2015 16:33

Nash

As in the header, the amount is more than mentioned in H1 results.

"OUR CASH POSITION MONTH OVER MONTH IS INCREASING" (Stock tube interview early October 14) Cash in bank mentioned as $7.5 mill.

[nashwan123] 12/5/2015 16:10

FreshV

Fair comment!

[superg1] 12/5/2015 14:48

The report states the price squeeze is costing SQM $100 to $150 mill per year, so that demonstrates SQM's determination to try and squeeze the others.

The absolute bottom on a bear case is $26 per kg, as it goes on about the narrow margins.

That pretty much matches my base case thought of $25 as being the limit.

It doesn't take into account the recent RB circs or the record weakness of the Peso.

This current price must be killing Algorta and Bullmine as their costs are quite high, it will be the same for Cosayach on seawater now.

The SQM strategy is now very clear, but has been in play for months, and IOF have been very wise to sit tight and preserve cash imo.

Under risks the analyst has listed the usual Corfo stuff and the fraud case, but has missed anything to do with water laws,water rights, the drought, and costs associated with seawater if they move that way. So he could get a nasty surprise if things go the wrong way on that front.

[che7win] 12/5/2015 14:06

One other thing, the biggest relevance with the iodine price is if we were to sell raw iodine which we have only done on adhoc basis a few times.

The current plants supply iodine internally to Chemicals, it has helped our margins but not as much as we all expected with iodine prices low.

Margins will greatly increase when iodine rises, so our revenues/cash potential has yet to be realised, but that doesn't mean we aren't increasing our profits margins from last year.

It's frustrating in some ways, but once iodine rises in earnest, I would expect IOF will double quickly.

[che7win] 12/5/2015 14:01

Apart from that, operating activities consumed $576k cash and in the second half, admin expenses should have declined while more plants will have been generating iodine.I don't expect much capital expenditure will have happened H2, so to me there is ample room for expansion with cash raised.I guess we will see in a couple of weeks, the water application will also be imminent.Thanks for reply, it's made me look again at the accounts.

[che7win] 12/5/2015 13:56

Nash, They had $6.25m cash at interims and declared in September they had $7.5m cash.

[nashwan123] 12/5/2015 13:49

che7win

I've looked at financials on ADVFN and IOF cash is very low and would I guess if revenues are low value(iodine price low) then they might need cash for BAU.

[captain_kurt] 12/5/2015 13:28

I suspect afew more trades will be closing today and tomorrow

[superg1] 12/5/2015 13:23

Interesting

I'm just reading some SQM analyst stuff.

'SQM is pushing prices down to recapture lost market share.'

We knew that bit but at least it shows the main analysts have now recognised that.

They have $35 per kg as Chile competitor cash cost.

Plenty more to read but that's part of it. They are very guarded re the SQM Corfo situation, and consider it won't go well if Ponce Lerou maintains his holding.

[superg1] 12/5/2015 13:12

Permit for me 99.9% based on water laws.

Profit/loss well that all depends on depreciation and other non cash figures, but yes to positive EBITA.

Cash raising 0% as right now I can't think why they would go that route, they have always wanted to expand from existing cash-flow. They had $7.5 mill in the bank (Oct 14) which was growing month on month and opex will be well below current iodine prices.

It wouldn't make sense to get aggressive while the iodine price is low. They also don't need to be aggressive to significantly increase production due to sites like io2 being available.

Then add in any potential cash up front if a water JV comes along as previously detailed in presentations.

If you think what Sirocco and Chile miners have to spend to get to 1000mt of production then the figure is massively different on capex.

EG The ALP Sirocco had was said to have cost $60 mill all-in, and when they were to add a crusher that was going to cost $15 mill. A seawater pipeline was set to cost them $50 mill.

15 years of graft and massive spending took them to a max rate of 1500mt but 1200/1300mt rates recently and prior, it never worked out.

[che7win] 12/5/2015 13:09

HNR, 57% rise, one of those stocks that can be ramped, small market cap.Interesting to watch, that's all.