Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 15:00

Also, will there be outstanding invoices from 2014 that weren't paid by year end?

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 14:59

Che, the plan is to move it isn't it? $1.5 mil to move IO1 vs $2-2.5 mil to build a new one. Even if IO1 costs are written off they wont apply to last years accounts :-(

[che7win] 07/5/2015 14:56

Also, how much of Io1 do they write off or do they move it.Midstates results looked good, thanks for posting that superg.

[che7win] 07/5/2015 14:55

Brian,
I also think your estimate is reasonable.

It's the cash flow I will find interesting on operations.
How much absorbed in working capital, we will soon find out but I was pleasantly surprised last time.

[crosseyed] 07/5/2015 14:47

Briley,
I think your estimates are very reasonable. Just a couple of points:

a) I'm expecting cost of sales at about $17.23 million since the main element of cost, raw iodine as you say, was entirely self-produced during 2014 through the IOsorb plants (plus a little through re-cycling) at almost surely lower than the open market cost of iodine, whereas quite a lot of iodine was bough in during 2013 (about 136 mT out of 308 mT processed - my estimates!).

b) As Bogg1e notes, Iofina will have no tax liability due to accumulated tax losses from prior years.

I'm forecasting an overall tax loss of $820,000.

Not long to wait now to find out.

c

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 13:56

Briley, they have a large amount of losses to offset against tax.

[brileyloucan] 07/5/2015 13:43

Next week will be very interesting as I don't feel the figures for the year are cut and dry, as there are a lot of moving parts for a growth company.

Revenue definitely is up so we can be fairly confident of ~$26m here. Thats the easy bit.

Cost of sales all things being equal would be up considerably as the biggest cost here is raw materials (the more you buy the more it costs) however this is offset by price reductions on the input side so I have pencilled in $18m of costs (double H1) though feel there is a lot of uncertainty in this figure.

Admin expenses - depreciation no room to move here up slightly as higher asset value compared to 2013 and salaries and office expenses. Ditto rent, insurance. They ran at $4.6m in H1 and should have realized some saving in H2 so a generous $8m seems fair (costs of $3.4m in H2). This is around a 40% reduction on H1 costs they can control - payroll, office expenses, consulting...

Finance expenses up slightly due to new convertible but close to double of H1. $1.3m

Throw in a bit of tax and I am hitting a loss of $1.5m. I actually think this is quite generous and if I had to put error bars around this I would say loss between 2m and 1m. This actually isn't a bad result and means they are at around breakeven in H2, the upside here comes from the operational gearing from an increasing Iodine price.

This obviously diverges from other estimates so am very happy to be corrected though obviously we will all see the true numbers soon.

Good luck all

BL

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 12:27

Tackems cheers. Doh :-)

[superg1] 07/5/2015 12:19

Bogg1e

We already know the rough figures. Revenues probably 35 percent more than last year. Costs down since April 40 percent reduction in admin salary costs etc etc. cash increasing, it's all out there but few look.

So a surprise coming that's been known all along.

[tackems] 07/5/2015 11:55

I believe it's Tuesday 12th Bogg1e - just so your not too disappointed on Monday morning!

[roboben] 07/5/2015 11:22

I picked up a few more last week, but I'll now sit tight and see what the company has to say about the future before I do anything else.

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 11:19

The fact that we have results on Monday may be playing a part. People too nervous to buy lest results are disappointing vs those who don't want to sell just in case the rns is better than expected. I think the results will be ok but the forward looking statements will be encouraging, so im happy to buy in now. Got another order lined up. It wouldn't take much in the way of good news to push the share price back to 50p again.

[superg1] 07/5/2015 11:10

Boggle

I had that problem last Friday. I had noted the seller seems to be around all week but tends to take a break on Friday.

This week has been a bit different with less selling pressure. The nomad appeared on level 2 so that may be why perhaps they have a buyer?

I had been waiting for a smidge lower thinking there may be election jitters. It's seems it's not the case.

[awolagain] 07/5/2015 11:07

Chile's president Michelle Bachelet asks entire cabinet to resign amid crisis
hxxp://gu.com/p/4874z

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 11:05

Sod it, couldn't get firm quote so put order through. paid 34.75. Immediately afterward the share price climbed to 35p, so obviously no ones wanting to sell right now.

[phoenixs] 07/5/2015 10:51

Bogg1e. Pay up and stop being a cheap skate!! only joking

[bogg1e] 07/5/2015 10:48

Hi all, Ive been trying to put through £5k and £10k orders throughout yesterday and today. I cant get an order at all. Ive never had this with Iofina before. Anyone else trying to get orders in?

[superg1] 07/5/2015 10:47

So much for the doomsters re OK drilling.

Midstates Q1 results out yesterday.

Increased average production in the Mississippian Lime to a record high of 26,531 barrels of oil equivalent (Boe) per day in the first quarter, up 62% from 16,381 Boe per day in first quarter of 2014 and up 6% from 25,039 Boe per day in the fourth quarter of 2014.

"Our strong first quarter results, anchored by our outstanding operational performance and record production from our premier Mississippian Lime assets"

In the first quarter of 2015, Midstates invested $93.0 million of operating capital, spud 18 wells, and brought 29 wells on line.

Since acquiring these properties in October 2012, Midstates has grown production in the Mississippian Lime from approximately 7,000 Boe per day to over 26,500 Boe per day. Through April 12, 2015, the Company had 238 wells on production for more than 30 days with an average peak 30-day production rate of 569 Boe per day.

The Company had four rigs drilling in its Mississippian Lime horizontal well program in Woods and Alfalfa Counties, Oklahoma for most of the quarter. Midstates spud a total of 18 wells, of which six were producing, eight were awaiting completion and four were drilling at March 31, 2015. The Company brought 26 fracture stimulated horizontal wells online during the first quarter.

The Company plans to operate four drilling rigs in the area in the second quarter of 2015 and drill 14 to 18 wells.

Midstates is generating rates of return greater than 30% in the current price environment and will continue to work with its service providers on cost reductions to maximize well level returns as the year progresses.

[superg1] 07/5/2015 10:21

Good old Chile. The media and investment world has been calling it a relatively safe corruption free country (in South American terms).

[superg1] 07/5/2015 10:05

TFC

I suspect it was a number of things including what SQM were going to do in the iodine price war.

On the oil side of things it's not just about the oil price but the strategy of the relevant company in response to that.

EG I could see that MS dropped to 4 rigs in the area and seemed to have an intent to move slightly east of where io2 and others are. That suggested there would be less disruption with more production, which seems to have been the case.

Throw in the 'it' which was about SWDs up for grabs. I know Halliburton were interested in the more widespread water management piggy backing in with IOF who have contracts.

How nice would that be to be paid to accept iodine rich brine, it would in theory equate to zero opex iodine. However I don't know the costs involved, so while I think of a JV re any water permit, it could have other factors.

Throw in The Pennsylvania issue too and other states.

The best option in the chaos was to sit and wait, preserving cash, optimising current plants, and letting the dust settle.

[the fat controller] 07/5/2015 08:57

Rockstar,
Do you know the delay in publishing the review is due to the falling oil price, or assumed/concluded that this is the case?
I seem to recall it was an operational review, rather than a strategic review. But I suspect that it amounts to the same thing!
TFC

[superg1] 07/5/2015 07:18

Oasis Q1 results and they clearly like the slickwater method. over 60% of wells now completed that way, with production curves more than doubled v prior methods.



Mr. Nusz added, "The White Unit in Wild Basin, our first multi-slickwater test, continues to outperform the high-end of our type curve. The test included seven wells in a portion of a single DSU, all completed with slickwater completions. The Middle Bakken well has produced approximately 256,000 Boe through 216 days and the wells in the first bench of the Three Forks have produced on average 167,000 Boe through 192 days. Additionally, we completed our first high volume proppant test in Alger, which is the 17,000 net acre southern subsection of South Cottonwood where we have 18 DSUs included in our core inventory. The Helling Trust has two new Middle Bakken wells that have produced on average 139,000 Boe through 88 days and a well completed in the first bench of the Three Forks wells that has produced 104,000 Boe through 87 days. All of the Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells in both the White Unit and the Helling Trust have early time production that is trending over double our corresponding production data for our 750,000 Boe Middle Bakken type curve and our 600,000 Boe Three Forks type curve, respectively. The continued outperformance of both of these high intensity completion tests continues to provide us with confidence in our plans to target our core area with high intensity completions."

[rock star] 06/5/2015 20:03

The biggest single reason for the delay in the strategic review was the sudden drop in the oil price. Now things have stabilised(including their own production)the growth will recommence. Management have erred on the side of caution over last year to make sure they are in prime position to benefit from the cyclical upturn of the iodine market.

[superg1] 06/5/2015 19:25

One of the other tricks by the Cosayach/Errazuriz group of companies lot (slavery) it all saves on costs.
It looks like that part of their games are now in court.

"Finally the prosecutor is asking for sentences of five and fifteen years, respectively against the only two defendants in this case."

Old man Errazuriz is in a coma so he is off the list.