Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[heartwell] 16/2/2015 08:36

Funny watching all the iofina chimps jumping around in their cages after a 8p rise after the falls from 250p

Banksy rattling his cage too. How many have you sold to the chimps?
This will fall back to new lows very soon. No new plants? the reasons will come out in time

[y1phr] 16/2/2015 08:12

I recon it will drop Friday.

[freshvoicem] 15/2/2015 22:33

No Friday 60p

[y1phr] 15/2/2015 20:15

50p by Wednesday!!!! Maybe

[neddo] 15/2/2015 17:15

the best are to come

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/2/2015 13:53

Hey Graham, I see old Norbert Dentressangle is hiding away on London SE? Blast from the past eh? What days we had.... the best.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/2/2015 13:28

Great? Hmmm, well that's one way of looking at things I suppose. I see of the 3 posters following you, 1 is Graham, 1 is SCRUTABLE, dunno the other.

Quite amusing though lol

[jbe81] 15/2/2015 12:54

Great to see ACT posting so much, should mean we are good for another 10p rise next week, hopefully 20p!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/2/2015 12:24

The fear of me being right? lol

You about Banksy? Float them dodgy diamond mines on AIM bud, LOL.

[nickb] 15/2/2015 12:11

Arlington Charlie for the filter bin.

[neddo] 15/2/2015 10:56

nuts, you are just a wind up merchant that got lucky on one prediction all your others are zilch, so stop crowing and do one.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/2/2015 21:00

See otherwise you'll be parping around generating small rev's for years and expensive infrastructure to build, operate & maintain. Get it sold to TBP or anyone who'll pay £10m and you'll clear the debt and be able to focus on what this is really all about, oil. LOL

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/2/2015 20:55

Yes, but what are you driving at? That IOF can sell it on as an operation to him or others? Good, then you can pay-off the debt like I've been saying. Do it.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 14/2/2015 19:39

So what are you now saying? That water can be put to better use than fracking? Make up your minds, it's important to be clear what this water is legally intended to do. Isn't it Graham?

[sandbag] 14/2/2015 17:48

wooly,

If anyone can build pipelines this is the man!

[woodpeckers] 14/2/2015 15:34

serratia, you are obviously entitled to your opinion that WS is an astute poster but as far as I can see, he is paid to construct articles giving share tips. His articles are not only badly written, but totally biased, though this is perhaps not surprising as he confesses to being short Afren.

Only time will tell as to who is right. I intend to hold as I feel there is a high chance of the share price multi-bagging from here, but certainly don't want to encourage others to invest without doing their own research. We are talking Nigeria here at the end of the day, so there are the obvious risks involved.

Many thanks for your good wishes.

[serratia] 14/2/2015 15:07

W,

I have no position on Afren, just passed on an analysis. WS is one of the most astute posters on MF, ignore it or believe it whichever way your analysis directs you. Best wishes if you hold them.

[woodpeckers] 14/2/2015 15:02

che, re oil, a third of their oil is hedged at about $90 through the next year too and they have been spending a lot of money ramping up production (which we will hopefully shortly get details on now that SEPLAT are out of the equation), so revenues are substantial even with oil at this price.

[woolybanana] 14/2/2015 14:43

Time to build long distance pipelines for moving water where it is needed?

[woodpeckers] 14/2/2015 13:47

serratia, WShak's opinion isn't worthy of comment IMO.

che, they issued that statement when Brent was about $40 so the situation is quite different now. There are lots of ways to raise the cash, the sale of it's Kurdi assets is a popular idea.

If you are interested the following post is worth reading:

"I spent more time going through Afren's website, and to be fair to them, disclosure is pretty decent and detailed.

So what have I learnt? Well, we know Afren's share price collapsed on the news that it would struggle to repay the next instalment and the interest coupon, and therefore applied for the 30-day grace period. This was all blamed on the falling price of oil. But since that bit of news, price of oil has recovered from the low of $42 to nearly $62. In simple terms and based on a daily production of 32kbpd, you are talking additional cashflows of nearly $20m per month based on an oil rising rising by $20. However that is based on the oil price staying at these levels. These figures also excludes the $90 hedge over Ebok's production, which is c21k per day.

Now, the important bit: all this fear about bond holders turning the screw and calling their debt (if that was ever a sensible option for them?), is a red herring. If you go to Afren's website, under Investor Relations and select the Debt Investors, it gives a break of debt repayments/maturity. A very handy bit of information to out trick the market and dispel some fears. So for 2015, it says total debt due for repayment is $137m and is classified as 'loan'. This relates to the Ebok field and secured over this asset. I am assuming this is a bank loan rather than a bond, because Afren have distinguished between what is a loan and what is a Bond. Importantly, next bond repayment is not due until h2 2016 for $253m. From this we can see that the bond holders are already subordinated in terms of repayment (the Ebok facility will be nearly fully repaid by H1 2016 before the 2016 bonds at $253m is repaid). Plus Ebok asset has already been pledged to the loan providers, so bond holders cant get their hands on this (shame for you waseem shaker). This is an important consideration as Ebok contributes 80% of Afren's daily production - so bond holders will loose more by going down the default route as cashflows will be heading to the loan providers and not the bond holders. Also, in the Half year results presentation (released on the 29 August), Afren stated that 6 new wells and 1 injector were planned for 2014. We have not been given an update on these activities so there is a chance production levels could be much higher, particularly as this is considered to be one of the low hanging fruits.

The next operational update plus the recovering price of oil will stabilise the company and maybe give them the upper hand in terms of negotiating new finance and/new terms.

The company is not out of the woods but telling Seplat that is has had enough of their games, is a good sign and a vote of confidence (clearly Seplat dragging Afren close to the end of the debt grace period is pretty unethical in my books). Anyway, I don't know who or what terms 3rd party investors have offered but thus far, not many have disputed that Afren is operationally strong and with good assets. Challenge now is to convert this debt in to cashflows, and if successful, we will wonder what all the fuss was about. Lest we forget that Ogo discovery was the third largest of 2013, with potentially 700+million barrels of oil in a highly prospective/proven location."


Quite agree that I wouldn't bet the house on it though!

[rovi67] 14/2/2015 13:07

Each fracking well uses an average of 4 million gallons of water -

hxxp://www.gaslandthemovie.com/whats-fracking/faq/water-used

read on....

In the eye of a mega-drought: Researchers warn US should prepare for 'unprecedented drought conditions' unlike anything in past 1,000 years

According to the study, there is a greater than 80 per cent chance of a mega-drought of 35 years or longer occurring in the US this century, unless swift and aggressive action is taken to alleviate the speed and impact of climate change, which would lower the risk. The authors said their research differed from other recent reports in its level of certainty about future droughts because they had taken into account the rise in carbon emissions.

Their conclusions were based on the rate of rising emissions and on complex climate simulations produced by 17 different computer models, which all broadly agreed on the results. The natural cycle, they found, would probably bring far less rain and snowfall to the region than in recent decades. But rising temperatures would also speed evaporation, shrinking the annual snowpack and parching soil.

This time last year, the President Barack Obama’s administration announced a $200m (£130m) drought aid package for California. But that will be of little use in combating the effects of a decades-long regional drought. “These mega-droughts during the 1100s and 1200s persisted for 20, 30, 40, 50 years at a time, and they were droughts that no one in US history has ever experienced,” Dr Cook said.

“The droughts people do know about, like the 1930s ‘dustbowl’ or the 1950s drought or even the ongoing drought in California and the south-west today – these are all naturally occurring droughts that are expected to last only a few years or perhaps a decade.



hxxp://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/

[che7win] 14/2/2015 12:59

On Afren,
My comment wasn't negative, the SEPLAT offer was never going to benefit shareholders to the extent ramped on the AFR threads.
Not one I would bet the house on.

They said they needed to raise double the market cap when it was around 18p, how they expect to raise money at this price is the question, but it's bondholders that are in control now, not shareholders, and the bonds are trading at considerable discount for a reason.