Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[phoenixs] 08/1/2015 16:27

superg1, .....most of the time....also filtered.

[superg1] 08/1/2015 16:16

Computers are reliable, you only have to punch the information into them once.

Filtered

[nellyb] 08/1/2015 16:00

Heartwell, have you made any money out of iof's share price fall? ;)

[old giggleswickian] 08/1/2015 15:58

Heartwell,
You have my sympathy but no longer my time!

Heartwell 8 Jan'15 - 15:52 - 28509 of 28509 0 0 (Filtered)

Ian.

[heartwell] 08/1/2015 15:52

Red day again for Iof shareholders while the main market powers again.

So much for research. The truth will hit home soon enough. No iodine growth and no water business

[woodpeckers] 08/1/2015 15:16

Agree that makes sound business sense but if news that we were buying from another company got out the bears would have a field day!!!

[superg1] 08/1/2015 14:59

There's more.lol

I forgot the currency situation



Take a look there isn't a lot of room left on the weakening side imo. The Yen has weakened by 50% since late 2012 and they do 30% plus of the iodine which is sold in dollars.

EG Japan selling at 30 is the same as 45 in terms of Yen for 2012.



For Chile it's a 40% change 30 = $42


Just look at the charts. Then add in all the other factors of rising tax and wages, plus rising costs.

There are a stack of reasons building up to show the iodine market is on the cusp of a big turn. The pips are squeaking on the down side, but the price could easily rupture due to the many events mentioned, and will do anyway on an apparent production shortage.

That's why I think IOF should buy some say from RB at a cut price, as it's a safety valve and should turn out to be a sound investment.

[woodpeckers] 08/1/2015 14:41

Thanks for your response SG. It would be great if the markets were to turn bullish just as we are hopefully about to start getting some positive newsflow, things could all come together nicely.
Again, many thanks for sharing your research.

[superg1] 08/1/2015 14:23

Woody

I'm working on Montana snail mail from 5th Jan, my guess is IOF would get it today or tomorrow, but adding it all up it was a gamble that there would be no news this week.

I was basing no production news on them knowing the water detail would be known, hence there would be no point doing two.

My best bet is Monday or Tuesday of next week, but I could be caught out and it appears tomorrow. It all depends what the nomad thinks of it being already known :-). As the share price has remained steady hopefully they will hold off until early next week. Which gives me a few days more to carry on digging in the iodine world as literally significant events could happen any day.

As I said before the Chile producer market is currently a line of trembling dominoes. One slight over-balance and off we go.

[superg1] 08/1/2015 14:10

No Woody that is not my point. I think there is fair chance it could go to a hearing but that isn't the point at all.

I know it's just 1 point and may not go to a hearing, but if it does IOF will get the permit with ease.

Such news will either be out tomorrow or early next week. I know putting out the details for us guys now will make no difference re buying and selling, but I know you guys that have read the recent posts, will instantly understand the news, and it will match what I have said.

I'm not bothered about buying at 33p, 36p, 27p or 40p. I just want to see what the MMs do when the news arrives. It could be very good then you have some traders in the high 20's from recent times taking a 10% to 20% profit. Although I suspect they are not around.

I anticipate they will give the Q4 production update too, which will be good and may cause MMs to raise the price.

Current market conditions and a complete lack of understanding of the relevant sectors keeps interest at bay.

So in some ways I feel there is no rush, but there are left field events that could kick things off on the share price.

1. JV re water as they have said they are pressing on re the water.

2. Objector withdraws meaning permit awarded very soon.

3. RB energy collapsing (highly likely)

4. Cosayach collapsing (likely)

5. SQM water rights suspended (perhaps)

6. A sudden turn in the iodine price not reliant on anything above (inevitable).

7. Current Chile port strike expanding, and going on for weeks.

Unknown factors like helium interest (it is relevant) I believe I know more on that than anyone.

Other factors like the linkedin energy guys showing up against IOF managers, one was an acquisition manager for Fidelity. Completely unknown re that but it was unusual and there is no credible link between them other than lease interest.

I'm one of the most likely to spot most of the above, and will react accordingly depending on what it is. One or more will happen near term.

So it's all about timing, with a fair chance this will climb well soon based on various events.

There are still 900k plus short which is very handy when you look at the list.

My biggest fear re getting more is a sudden JV announcement or similar on water before buying some more, but hey ho they'd still be cheap after such news. Once those sorts of points are embedded funds start buying, but they don't react as quickly as we do.

I was waiting to see if the 3 objectors added anything that may be thrown into the mix but there is nothing at all to add, which is fab. I know exactly what his points are and they are very very weak.

Is a farmer not allowed water because other farmers have plenty and have to buy from them. No of course not, and that is what the guy is trying to say.

If that were right then no other industrial water permits should be issued in eastern Montana, so the current applicant Wildcat may as well forget it.

The permit will be awarded, either when he withdraws ,or post a hearing, and I for one will back that bet when I think the timing is right.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 08/1/2015 13:54

"and are making money"

If only that were true... sigh.

[octopus100] 08/1/2015 13:50

Whether the price is high or low - IOF fundamentally have a patented technology which enables them to produce Iodine at a price significantly cheaper to other producers. This has to be of interest to either someone in Chile, the Japanese with declining production or a third party. IOF have built plants, produced and sold and are making money proving it works - the more they scale up the more they produce and become a direct competitor. - At some point these guys will be taken out. Water is irrelevant as its not their main business, its a side line but never the less a nice one if they get it - actually distorting the price with unnecessary fluctuations.

[woodpeckers] 08/1/2015 12:51

I agree che, I really can't see this dipping with bugalugs' case being so weak even if it does go to hearing which is why I was surprised at SG's comment.

[che7win] 08/1/2015 12:44

I think this is a nice price point.

The water award is near enough a formality at this stage - IOF pressing ahead with plans as they stated.

Next week, we are due the quarterly figures and the market not expecting a surprise, but what if we do suprise to the upside.

No expectations in the price at this level, the chart is close to leaving the downtrend, whether that be this month or the next few months.

[woodpeckers] 08/1/2015 12:36

SG, re your comment....

"It's a done deal but I'm waiting to see what the MMs do on that news, if I have to pay more for shares than now, so be it.

I work on timing re shares, and imo in a short tine the timing should be spot on."

...can I infer that you think old bugalugs will say he wants to take it to hearing next Wednesday and that the mms will drop the price at which point you'll buy more in readiness for the price hike after he fails at the hearing?

[superg1] 08/1/2015 12:26

Che

When there is no debate to debate, it makes it easy. Some folks don't share our confidence because they don't find what we find.

[neddo] 08/1/2015 12:05

hi joe

I am very conceited this morning , ng.l

[neddo] 08/1/2015 12:04

shouldn't this lone objector pay iof costs if he loses?

[superg1] 08/1/2015 11:45

Slickwater

A comprehensive study was completed in the bakken area re the various completion techniques.

It's by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. They had built up data of 1100 wells in the area at the time the report was produced.



In the paragraph below for A&C's technique, it is slickwater as can been seen in the document. 100% to 400% better results mentioned below.

In a chart it shows slickwater having average uses of 25.1 barrels/ft. For the others it shows a range of 5.7 to 7.9.

That means slickwater on average uses 3.2 to 4.4 times the water used on other methods.

As we know in recent months many operators have tried slickwater and are now moving to complete most of their wells that way.

Hence the Bakken regardless of any drop in rig counts is going to see a big surge in water use. EG Oasis due to the price drop say they will do 70 to 90% or their intended drilling this year with the majority using slickwater. So their water use should double at least.



5) Operator R’s total drill and equip cost is about $9 million versus just under $11 million for Operators A&C. For the roughly 20% increase in total well cost, Operators A&C’s advanced completions deliver 100% to 400% more oil in
the first 180-days. In the poorer reservoir areas (70% WC), production from Operator R’s completions is 12 MBO in the first 180-days versus 53 MBO for Operators A&C, a difference of 41 MBO, worth $3.7 million. This difference
increases to 63 MBO in the better reservoir areas (30% WC) adding $5.6 million to the first half-year’s revenue.

[cyberbub] 08/1/2015 11:38

Guys can I suggest you just filter? Don't waste your life on arguing with someone who can never lose.

[old giggleswickian] 08/1/2015 11:26

Heartwell,
Looking at your profile and posts you have obviously created a personna with the singular purpose of saying ya boo sucks to Iofina. Have you lost money on this company or are you just a natural loser?

Ian.

[che7win] 08/1/2015 10:12

Oh please,
this is really embarassing.

Heartwell, are you still going on about 3 objections, despite 2 having been thrown out?

You're really just making things up as you go along, this is funny!

[superg1] 08/1/2015 10:08

What the opening paragraphs say on the deficiency letters.


WATER RESOURCES DIVISION [phone] TELEFAX NUMBERS [phone] 1 (40b) 444-5918

December 3, 2014


Re: Objection to Permit Application No. 40S-30066181 by Atlantis Water Solutions LLC To Whom It May Concern:

This letter serves as the Objection Deficiency Notice as required by ARM, 36.12.117(11). As allowed by ARM, 36.12.117(10), if an Administrative Hearing is held on an application you will be limited to only those criteria objections marked "Yes" below. If you desire to raise an objection to the criteria marked "No", you must file the reqüired information within 15 days of the date of this letter. You do not need to provide the information for all of the criteria, just for those you want to be able to dispute at a hearing,


You can do the rest as I keep saying it's available via the web, if you can't find it then tough (I doubt you will the route in is very well hidden)

You should note water permits have a full archive of every document, letter,and email exchange available for all to view via the web.