Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 07/1/2015 07:41

I'm methodically picking through the applications of all those listed by the Culbertson depot guy.

The variation of his claims of his application v his objection is greater than I thought.

EG he says the 50 mile radius IOF mention is exaggerated and not viable.

In his own application his LOIs cover areas further away than that including Blaine county 250 miles away. So that evidence in his own LOI from a company shows how far they will transport it. That completely destroys his daft argument on that point.

On water used per well, in his application he quotes 2 million to 4 million gallons (47k to 95k barrels) per well but a few sentences later 50k to 70k barrels.

In the objection he states only 40k are needed which is less than half of his max rate.

For his permit 200 to 250 wells per year, for the objection 200 per year

In other words, as suspected and proven, he is just a making things up as he goes along.

[cyberbub] 06/1/2015 23:21

I don't do Chinese or Indian shares, after NBU and DQE... never again... granted there might be one genuine company amongst 100 dodgy ones, but it's really hard to see them as anything other than an underhand way for a Chinese company's founders to transfer their wealth out of China, and then abandon it to mug punters... or engage in some murky intra-company loans and complex holdings which only benefit the founders and not shareholders...

Just my view. Good luck.

[monts12] 06/1/2015 22:55

DJI

not your typical Chinese AIM company. One of only a few companies allowed to sell tickets to the Chinese lottos. Their (China's) two lottos are the only legal way to gamble in China. Chinese notorious for gambling.
Gamechanging deal with state owned Xinhua, gaining access and influence of Chinese government, media and online platforms.
Floated @£1.00 in July 14. Shot up to £1.60 before distressed large seller brought price back to below £1. Currently £1.06. Further deals in pipeline and talk of additional listing in China or US. Management have been operating in China since 2008 and are well respected there (not sure if that means a lot, but it's in a better position than a lot of AIM fly by night co's).
This one is in a similar stage of development to IOF, on the cusp of profitability and explosive growth and like IOF I think the sky really is the limit ....OR risk of failure in DJI's case due to Chinese foul play (that risk can't be ignored). Presence and position in China offers the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow but equally the risk of, err being on the end of Chinese corruption!
MC currently £140m which, on the face of it looks high but the potential is there for £1b+ If earnings continue to accelerate.
Medium/High risk Vs sky high reward.
DYOR

I hold

Edit
Michael Walters has done a decent write up on this and tipped it on his site (subscription required for access, link below) I think his write up may have helped the price recover to more than my buy in price in the last week so there is a risk of a slight drift in the absence of news or due to current market conditions.

[spike_1] 06/1/2015 22:12

Che,
Many thanks for your recent valuable musings over where oil is headed, and its effect on us (not).
All very valuable - as is sg's almost continuous high grade commentary on our water application.

We are indeed blessed.

Best wishes - Mike

[cyberbub] 06/1/2015 21:52

Interesting thanks fellers, I know all of those but not in detail apart from OBT where I hold some.

I hold some KIBO where there seems to be a seller but a lovely pennant forming, and key funding news due in the coming weeks.

I am also researching AGL, its tech looks amazing, large markets and only a £30M market cap, so not much froth on the share price and company-making news due sometime soon.

No advice intended.

[jbe81] 06/1/2015 21:38

Cyberbub ORM

[superg1] 06/1/2015 20:55

This one, OBT, PRG (funding for phase 1) and ITM power.

One other, no news due but that's 'my precious' I want it to keep drifting with no BB activity.

[cyberbub] 06/1/2015 20:07

Anyone got any more tips for an oversold share, maybe a big seller, some important news on the way etc etc??

[superg1] 06/1/2015 16:34

Che

re oil, facts are irrelevant when the media want to create chaos, they did it some months back re Ebola. Facts showing a lot of what they were saying was to create panic were too damaging for a good old media frenzy.

I stopped worrying about my neighbour's dog having rabies about 40 years ago, but I seem to recall mad hysteria over rabies, with general mass fear of rabies.

EG re Oil

Here is one headline

'Record Oil Tankers Sailing to China Amid Stockpiling Signs'

Yes you are right re Libya they attacked the main port and storage knocking 300,000 bod off the supply, but it wasn't deemed newsworthy. The 18yr old girl golf player was deemed newsworthy.

I'll find some others.

To me the market is like a bungee rope, severely overstretching in both directions, it's always very hard to find a balance as at certain prices many can jump on board as it opens up previously uneconomic resources. The marginal ones then crash on the drop and the market is left under-supplied once more.

I was reading about Saudi where one report suggests they are on their peak oil rate and will decline in the coming years.

Another big field apparently overdid brine injection to increase pressures, and have caused an irreversible future production problem.

[che7win] 06/1/2015 15:45

Interesting gad,
I expect a lot of the buyers in the market are waiting for a turn - then they will put their orders in before iodine rises too much.

The thing with selling prices is - they don't necessarily reflect the costs of production.
RB Energy let their inventory grow for some strange reason - now that they are protected from creditors they are selling fire sale.
Once that inventory is offloaded, we should see normalised pricing.

[gadolinium] 06/1/2015 15:35

Che,
As you know I follow the iodine 99.5% price.

According to the Zauba site the price of 99.5% iodine actually rose last month from $30.73/kg in November to $31.42/kg in December. I would not put too much significance on this as December is a low shipment month, but it is worth noting that this is the first monthly increase for this grade since September 2013 apart from an 11 cent increase recorded in April 2014 (see link graph).

[che7win] 06/1/2015 15:09

gad,
SQM let slip in their recent presentation post results that they were finding their customers were holding off inventory replenishment - if iodine shows a bottoming those customers will quickly become buyers.

[gadolinium] 06/1/2015 15:06

Interesting feedback being received by IM regarding the recent discounted sales not being reflective of the wider market. Note comment on FALLING PRODUCTION! Intregueing end statement cut short unfortunately!

--------------------------------------------------------------

Iodine price decline rumblings not reflected by wider market

By Laura Syrett
Published: Thursday, 18 December 2014

Sources say falling production and flat demand do not support sub-$30/kg prices

Suggestions that iodine prices are heading below $30/kg have been questioned by some market participants, who said that large contract discounts offered by individual companies are not reflective of the market as a whole.

"The reality is that supply is...

[cyberbub] 06/1/2015 15:03

Exactly Che, I actually meant to but forgot to put in my post above that a fall in the oil price makes it even more likely for the oilers to work hard to supply us with the brine we need, to make more money per barrel!

[che7win] 06/1/2015 14:44

superg/cyber,
there is some right rubbish bandied about right now on oil.

I posted data a week ago showing some facts on oil.

Let's rewind back before fracking a few years ago.

If it wasn't for the fracking these past few years, there would be a shortfall in conventional oil production coming online to replace depleted oil fields to match the relentless growth in oil demand from the world.

We are at record highs of 90+ Million barrels demand - even China with it's slowdown is still growing - oil demand continuing up from a year ago.

It's a bit like the Conservatives saying they have cut the deficit in half - they haven't done anything of the sort - our debt is still growing - all they have done is cut the extra debt they are borrowing each month by a small amount - all that debt still has to be paid (or inflated away) - and it's growing.

Some commentators reckon that without US fracking, oil prices would be at somewhere between $150 to $200 today - I think that's true.

Remember - there is no sizable conventional supply growth in the world to meet the growing demand for oil - even OPEC themselves for whatever reason have been unable to increase production in the last decade.

With ingenuity, along came fracking, and US oil production recovered - it hasn't been as high in decades.

From 5m barrels produced conventionally, they have added around 4 million barrels via fracking.

However, the thought of US energy independence is short of the mark - they are producing around 9 million barrels per day whilst they consume around 19m barrels.

That being said, US oil production from fracking has risen in only a few years from nothing to 4m barrels.

Another thing worth considering - some US oil production is also replacing conventional oil production - such as in the Gulf of Mexico in the offshore oil wells.

Switching to gas, some fracked gas fields have done similar. Interesting thing with gas is that it is at historic lows in the US, yet fracked gas production hasn't tailed off at all. The US is happy because a lot of manufacturing coming back from the far east with cheap energy.

Thanks to QE and historically low interest rates, money has been lent (recklessly in some cases) to US fracking without risks being taken into account.
Banks may be in trouble again.

However, fracking won't disappear, it can't because it's needed to meet oil consumption. Some think oil fracking production will grow 700k barrels this year, I expect oil rig usage to curtail quickly (as happened 2007/2008).

Fracking slow down will eventually feed into a falls in production until prices rise again.

The normalised rate for oil is probably $80+, but there is a game being played out on the world stage.

Two players, US and OPEC.

Which one will blink first? If both cut production by 10%, then oil prices would double instantly and margins would recover.

If one capitulates, the other wins.

If both keep production high, oil prices crash (this is the scenario being played out). No producers win short term, the consumer does.
In the short term - production of oil will rise as Iraq / Russia and US pump more to mitigate margin declines.

Saudi is eating into it's reserves to kill off oil production (and their ministers are doing everything in their power to talk down the oil price), but I don't think it will be a clear winner.

It is going to bring down other OPEC countries and Russia. All that will happen is US fracking will ramp up just as quickly as it curtailed. US fracking is a lot more flexible than other methods.

We will see US fracking retrenching from outside the sweet spots, the market will find a balance and the winners in the US will be those companies operating in the sweet spots.

Our operations in Oklahoma are in a sweet spot, we have only 6 plants operating out of a region with 19m mt of iodine going to SWD.

We can grow through a few more big plants or many mobile units for now, IOF are playing it the right way sweating current assets.

In many ways, oil is playing out the way iodine has in the past year.
Another thing - US fracked oil is super sweet, around 40 API and good enough to drink :-)

They are a direct threat to Nigeria who also produce nice sweet oil, so Nigerian oil is trying to sell to Far East instead of US as US doesn't need it anymore. Meanwhile, Saudi is having none of it and discounted oil to ward of Nigeria.

Canadian tar oil is high cost and sour - high sulphur (also very environmentally damaging), Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Libyian oil is not stable politically and that is ignored currently by the markets.

Libya in the past week has burned 2 million barrels from oil tanks via fighting (seen from space), it is not stable.

Oil is only 2% over production needed, this is not just because of production, but because demand from Europe, China and Japanese economies slowed down more than expected last year.

Also remember, few OPEC countries, never mind Russia can live with oil prices at this level and US oil production is mostly hedged for the next year.

Yes - the Bakken does have discounted oil versus WTI, it is hard to transport it without pipelines, the survivors will be the big frackers.

The market will balance - oil consumption increases with oil falls - anyone changing their cars last few years will have went for economical models, those changing now might opt for a big gas guzzler.

That is medium changes that set the market up for rising prices, but in the short term, economies have been stimulated by the oil slump.

I could talk about the strong dollar which doesn't help the rest of world, but go dyor.

Coming back to IOF - the above is largely irrelevent, it doesn' directly impact our iodine production and the company recently spelt that out through RNS's.
What it does is make the O&G companies keen to partner with us and supply what we require.

Our water application isn't factored into the share price either, that makes the current price all the more interesting as the water demand is needed by those US frackers for continued expansion and reduction in costs.

By the way, I'm sure some of you might have noticed a game changer last week? Slipped out on the quiet, US policy makers are allowing US oil to be exported for the first time in 40 years.

DYOR.

[joestalin] 06/1/2015 14:36

The next OPEC meeting is 5 June 2015 in Vienna, so the POO could stay around $50 for the next 6 months, not that the Saudis seem to pay a great deal of attention to what OPEC thinks.

The low POO seems more like a means to an end. It all depends what the Saudis are trying to acheive and when they will feel that they have done so.

[cyberbub] 06/1/2015 14:14

The doom mongers about the oil price on this board are deluded.OBVIOUSLY a percentage of the US shale gas and oil operations will be shut down for the short/medium term... the higher cost, higher opex older sites in particular... who knows, maybe 20-30%?OBVIOUSLY with careful selection there will be plenty, plenty of brine still around for IOF to be able to expand massively from our current minimal 6 sites... *especially* with mobiles! We could probably 10x our number of sites and still barely touch the number of potential sites!OBVIOUSLY oil is not going to stay at $50 long term. Too many interests need it to be much higher.QEDNAI

[superg1] 06/1/2015 13:31

An FT article yesterday re Venezuela, worth a read and puts things in perspective.

[superg1] 06/1/2015 13:25

Jam

If the countries affected but the oil price all stopped as they were loss making at these prices oil would soon hit $1000 per barrel.

They were talking 1 mill to 2 mill bpd oversupply. The small oilies will be falling apart and collectively account for quite an amount as they will have to go into Hibernation to survive.

I was reading about Venezuela as in recent times (2011) they have found oil which puts them with the largest oil reserves and above Saudi.

Hmmmm I thought, an oil glut perhaps, but then if you just read that it's not the full picture. Venezuela's oil is very heavy, worse than the Canada oil sands. That means very high costs for recovery and processing so their costs v returns will be some of the highest in the world.


They have already cut 200k bpd, and are in a crisis over the oil price. Inflation rate 63%.

[superg1] 06/1/2015 13:16

Dc
Yes I forgot about 'supplying ice cream to the eskimo's' which rather sums up the situation.

They have a number supply agreements sat on the desk as mentioned by Tom publicly

[dcgray21] 06/1/2015 13:09

Meb re post 28421 - our understanding from the AGM is that the Japanese and IOF are talking from the perspective of iodine supply and call off orders - once production is proven to be stable then these may well become visible - indeed may form part of the strategic review document that we should get sight of in next couple of months .

[stevo2011] 06/1/2015 12:33

Bored of trashing all the XEL threads are we

[testuser123] 06/1/2015 12:12

Heart - as discussed a few posts ago there are plenty of people here who monitor stock on loan. By all means feel free to put your money where your mouth is.

[heartwell] 06/1/2015 12:02

Test read "at this time" !

I can't say anymore currently. But beware!