International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 02/3/2020 16:34

I think 2014 low of 315p if this Coronavirus keeps spreading, I reckon a years earnings would be wiped out.

[1 nhs] 02/3/2020 16:31

Here we go , ( as predicted)

Flybe is continually reviewing the ever-changing coronavirus situation as the health and wellbeing of our passengers and crew is our priority at all times," said a Flybe spokesperson.



About to shutdown ?

[milliecusto] 02/3/2020 16:30

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/02/airline-industry-braced-for-major-threat-from-coronavirus-turmoil

[smithys2019] 02/3/2020 16:29

Tornado, agreed. But bottoms are notoriously difficult to pick. Whilst the shorters are having fun feeding on market hysteria, I’m stocking up. This is a 5+ year investment for me with a lot of upside once the storm blows over.

The fundamentals have not changed, the company is robust with significant liquidity and cash flow. There will be opportunities that emerge from any further consolidation - you need lots of ready liquidity though to benefit from that.

[tornado12] 02/3/2020 16:01

This going sub 400p and continue to drop if there are any city lockdowns over next weeks which looks likely. But when over will be a good capital growth share. I’m in Heathrow today and it still remains fairly busy with flights still to Milan running. At some point a great growth share to invest in !

[1 nhs] 02/3/2020 15:55

This is an epidemic curve showing the number of new cases per day in China (the world’s second-largest economy and the world's largest importer of goods). It appears that China is in the process of successfully containing the coronavirus and, for that reason, has already begun to reboot its economy


Pack of lies.

Let’s see the real rate of infections from South Korea.

On a pro rata basis they will have overtaken China by Friday this week.

China numbers are out by 100, 1,000 or 10,000 times

[1 nhs] 02/3/2020 15:52

Oversold.!!

Are you nuts

World no fly zone within weeks.

[fjgooner] 02/3/2020 15:50

How Markets And The Media Have Overhyped Coronavirus

Extract

In my last article, Are Oil Markets Overreacting To The Coronavirus?, I warned of the power of media hype when it comes to epidemics. The human brain has a tendency to mix up the severity of an outcome with how likely that thing is to happen. Just like our fear of terrorism or shark attacks, when it comes to epidemics we are incredibly poor judges of how much of a danger they really pose.

Our intensely interconnected societies and sensationalist media mean that this failure of judgment can translate into mass hysteria and fear in the markets that can have a tangible impact on the world economy. Oil prices have collapsed, stock markets have fallen by the largest amount since the 2008 financial crisis and the Dow Jones saw its largest single-day points drop in history. All of this has come from the spread of the coronavirus from China to South Korea, Italy, Iran, and Japan. But as this spread continues there is one key factor that market observers appear to be missing, highlighted by the below chart.

This is an epidemic curve showing the number of new cases per day in China (the world’s second-largest economy and the world's largest importer of goods). It appears that China is in the process of successfully containing the coronavirus and, for that reason, has already begun to reboot its economy.

[montyhedge] 02/3/2020 15:30

My target 325p if Coronavirus continues, I reckon one years earning could be wiped out.

[smithys2019] 02/3/2020 14:21

Target price was well over 700 only a fortnight ago - once demand returns IAG are going to do well out of this - WW already commented they have learned from previous outbreaks and are planning to fill their boots once demand returns.

[smithys2019] 02/3/2020 14:20

Level 2 price up to 432 at 14:20

[smithys2019] 02/3/2020 14:19

Doubling up on the way down. A fair few shorters burned today, plus lots of short positions to be closed by end of today. A good share for SIPP and ISA allowances approaching April.

Big moves I reckon - once Norwegian goes, IAG have the capacity to suck up their profitable transatlantic seats. That’s over 2 million annually on the most profitable route in the world. RR is up due to it reaching the end of its issues with Trent, this makes a lot of 787 available that have been parked with engine changes.

For a company with over 7 billion in the bank now able to hedge fuel at record lows for months in the future, this is oversold.

[ny boy] 02/3/2020 14:16

Globally markets are very oversold, expect a big rally once CV is stabilizing, warmer weather will help kill the virus off.

To some fear in their eyes and some dribbling in front of the pc, tablet, phone, for others a chance to tuck away blue chip shares that have been beaten up. Be greedy, when others are fearful imo

[worraps] 02/3/2020 14:03

People do not want to go into self, or compulsory isolation, so would rather not report it if the symptoms are bearable and do not need treatment. I therefore believe that the actual numbers are much higher, and therefore since the deaths are always recorded and reported, the actual percentage of deaths per number of infected people, is much lower.

[hamhamham1] 02/3/2020 14:03

China had to build emergency hospitals for the demand, that just shows the intense strain on services which could be needed.

[loganair] 02/3/2020 13:57

d87 - A rubbish dashboard if I may say so....

South Korea 26 deaths & 4,335 confirmed cases.

Italy 34 deaths & 1,694 confirmed cases???....Iran 54 deaths & 978 confirmed cases???

It seems to me the truth for Italy is more like 4,000 to 5,000 cases and Iran upwards of 10,000 cases.

[dround87] 02/3/2020 13:47

I'm in with a third of my intended investment. Will add the rest as we go.

[dround87] 02/3/2020 13:46

Really goody covid dashboard. Could do with time filters

[dround87] 02/3/2020 13:46

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[loganair] 02/3/2020 13:26

I understand that for every death, 4 people need intensive care with 10% of people catching the virus really needing hospitalisation.

For those who are under 20, I understand many hardly even notice they have it and that is the problem that because on the whole the under 20s will not realise they have the virus, they are the ones who'll be walking around spreading the virus to other people.

[hamhamham1] 02/3/2020 13:22

What percentage needed hospitalization or ICU or invasive ventilation?
It's not just the death stats

[loganair] 02/3/2020 13:19

I think in the long run the cornonavirus is going to hit IAG more then airlines such as Easyjet - Why?

People are learning to work from home and video conferencing etc and therefore less need to go on business trips which is where IAG make their money whereas Easyjet, once the coronavirus has settled down people still want to go on their holidays.