International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 01/3/2020 15:00

People posting here saying 86000 cases and 3000 deaths is not that bad a situation . A momth ago people were posting:

It's not that bad only 16000 people have caught it and 120 dead.....

Laganair i mentioned oil price decline and IAG only few days ago.

[toon1966] 01/3/2020 14:56

Good point m1k3y1. Plenty of news outlets to get your daily fill of corona updates. Increase in the number of new cases in the UK (and globally) is not surprising.

[watfordhornet] 01/3/2020 14:50

Bull run? The FTSE is lower than it was in 1999. How can that be a bull run

[m1k3y1] 01/3/2020 14:50

ham.....not ignoring anything, just following the advice from The WHO.
"Our greatest enemy right now is not the virus itself. It’s fear, rumours and stigma.
And our greatest assets are facts, reason and solidarity".

cyberian....Thanks

[hamhamham1] 01/3/2020 14:40

Ok, but this is a black swan event and you cam ignore it if you want.
Do you believe in market cycles, from booming times to recessions? Usual time frame is 7 to 8 years, and we are 11 years in to a record bull run. It will not go on forever.

[cyberian] 01/3/2020 14:34

mik3y1...if you follow my direction in post 13317, you will see that the situation is not that bad...problems are China, South Korea,Italy,Iran, and Japan...elsewhere very few new cases, and quite a few where it shows that the days since any last reported cases are sometimes over 21 days. The latter is a very good sign....the 5 key countries with problems are now being aggressively managed and that is a big positive...containment is important. My conclusion is that once China can push for increasing its output/production then we will be in better shape economically for global growth. I can understand the current concern by a lot of Governments to encourage or require short term restriction on big gatherings, shows, and travel, but postponement could hopefully be relatively modest. No need to panic, but important to follow the numbers over the next 1/3 weeks.

[m1k3y1] 01/3/2020 14:06

ham........we really don't need repetitive updates of when someone else has caught the virus .

[hamhamham1] 01/3/2020 13:41

12 more patients got it in the uk

[dandu69] 01/3/2020 13:39

based on the current situation, what would be an ideal entry point?

[m1k3y1] 01/3/2020 13:15

Bookbroker......agree with your view.

[bookbroker] 01/3/2020 13:00

To be honest a good deal of this companies profits come from business travel on the New York Route, so cutting back on flights is not going to make a lot of difference to their bottom line to Timbuktu, etc. Why it dropped to almost £4.00 last year beyond, Brexit, Brexit, but that was an incredible buying opportunity. Thought there was something more sinister, so refrained, but if things return to normal they will soar, as many airlines will face oblivion after this, and IAG in a financially immense position.

[bookbroker] 01/3/2020 12:54

Loganair, you got a storage tank in ur back yard, where do you think they will put it, chances are they might be buying in the forward market, but it is not really feasible to stockpile!

[cyberian] 01/3/2020 12:30

Suggest posters here needing 100% correct numbers on coronavirus check via a google search "latest global virus case numbers" , and then hit "Situation Reports" on sites provided. Very detailed and to me looks quite encouraging as far as proportion of epidemic.

[milliecusto] 01/3/2020 12:03

https://www.theguardian.com/ukTalking about isolating City's

[loganair] 01/3/2020 11:55

The biggest cost to any airline is it's fuel and so far I haven't heard mentioned anyone posting that the cost of a barrel oil is down around 15% which is positive for airlines.

If I was IAG I would be thinking of stocking up on fuel while it is cheap.

When it comes to the mortality rate of the Coronavirus I've heard...15% for the over 80s, 2% for the over 60s and under 5s and just 0.2% for the 5s to 60s.

In the UK in a good year around 1,500 people die of the flu, in an average year around 2,500 die and in a bad year 3,500 while in an exceptionally bad year as many as 5,000 die.

So far nobody in the UK has died of the Coronavirus and at the end of the day at the very most the UK may see just a handful of people dying.

I have a greater chance of dying from a heart attack from putting on my trousers (5 in the UK a year sadly do) then I do of dying from the Coronavirus.

[hamhamham1] 01/3/2020 11:20

This bloke will do a solo....

[toon1966] 01/3/2020 11:09

Sunday sing-a-long 1 with Spacey and NHS, starting with REM's "It's the end of the world as we know it" -

[m1k3y1] 01/3/2020 10:59

WHO


"Our greatest enemy right now is not the virus itself. It’s fear, rumours and stigma.

And our greatest assets are facts, reason and solidarity".

[toon1966] 01/3/2020 10:57

Yes, we are facing an epidemic – but it is one of panic and self-flagellation -

[m1k3y1] 01/3/2020 10:56

Ham.......just if's and's and maybe's .......
Stick to the facts and what is happening on the ground...not hypothetical if's .

so far only 86,992 cases and 2,979 deaths.
Stop trying to make it something it isn't.

[daveboy1] 01/3/2020 10:52

Keep talking it up, lads - will get in again at £4. Many thanks.

[hamhamham1] 01/3/2020 09:53

Common flu mortality rate is approx 0.14%.

[hamhamham1] 01/3/2020 09:37

Bennodean. My point is that the death rate ratio for coronavirus is 10x higher than if the same amount of people could the common flu.
Therefore, if x number of people catch the common flu per year and 650,000 die, then if the same x number of people catch coronavirus then 6,500,000 would die.
That's why everyone is trying to lock it down with drastic measures. Because if it spreads and becomes as rife as common flu, it will have the same effect as Spanish flu after ww1.
This is what authorities have extrapolated and why they really want to avoid that scenario. But it's hard to stop something like this when it's already so distributed. Travel, interaction, population size, etc is so much greater than 100 years ago.

[bookbroker] 01/3/2020 09:21

Most people who go on cruises are either older generation,retirees or geriatrics, so you would expect the mortality rate to be higher. If they were all under the age of thirty there may have been no fatalities. Unfortunate all the same for the victim’s families, start the blame game again!