Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 17/11/2006 17:28

well, what a week!

it's looking like the dream really will turn into reality. i'd better pinch myself

and go and have a nice stiff drink.

enjoy the weekend all those in the igp club...

[aphrodites] 17/11/2006 13:30

YUMP & WJC

I am always willing to listen to those who are more conversant with a section of the market than myself. Thank you both for your input.

More importantly the more discussion we get on here and the more it opens up for discussion any areas of doubt the better informed we will all be.

I do have a banking background which was very much concentrated in the investment and financial markets.

Very rarely have I found a company which does not have a need for money for one reason or another.

And even if it doesn't there have always been arguments for issuing shares to widen and improve liquidity.

I know it is far too early to be discussing that now but if the share price doubles from here, as I am convinced it will do, I am sure you will find calls to widen the client share base.

Even at £1.20 there will be many that think that £2.40 or £4 is quite possible and will want to jump on board.

But I am happy to sit back and watch the developments unfold from here. No fears of any retracement at this point in time.

[wjccghcc] 17/11/2006 12:36

pork belly - it just tripped off the tongue :-)

Aphrodites - don't agree, this is a people business with little working capital requirements. In fact, if you strip out the convertible debt that was due within a year at the time of the finals (since extended to 2009), their net current liabilites were 100k. Staff costs will increase, and that may be the reason they're still lossmaking at the interims since they need more people to work with their channel partners ahead of the revenues starting to flow.

They've built up considerable IP over the last 8 years with the MyID product. The main advantage vs their competition is that while MyID provides a very good, comprehensive and straightforward standalone CMS, it is also flexible enough to be integrated into their customer's sytems, something which has great long-term appeal as customers look to integrate their disparate security elements into a comprehensive and unified system. That's why RSA, Verisign, Thales, Safenet, Oracle etc. have chosen it as the basis for their CMS offerings. IGP have been investing for growth in building up staff numbers to work with their increasing list of channel partners - to integrate/customise MyID and train the sales/technical people who will be delivering the product. They're not going to expand into the Middleware or IDMS sectors since they'll then be competing with their partners. Nor will they get taken over by someone in the industry for the same reason.

And if you're worried about their lack of growth opportunity, then how about the fact that spending on physical/system security is predicted to increase five-fold in the next three years? I think there will be plenty to keep them occupied.

[yump] 17/11/2006 12:07

aphrodites
I don't get that.

IGP have only just started. Can't see why they would have expansion plans other than the intention to develop and sell their current offering fully to as big a market as possible. Presumably that has been the plan for a long time now, so why would they be off on something else ? Seems a big enough plan to me. Expand or suffer the consequences a bit 80's corporate imo !

Working capital is something else, but would hope that they've planned for that.

I've got the opposite experience from you I think. Multitude of websites started up since 2000 in our field, all expanding to do everything they could for our market. End result, none of them have a defendable market leadership - several gone missing. We stuck to a couple of things that we knew our visitors wanted to do, marketed the site accordingly and now have a very defensible brand, albeit in a small field. Having established that, its now proving a lot easier to cross-sell other services which will add revenue. Some of those services were previously offered by the do-everything sites.

[spooky] 17/11/2006 11:51

Parris the Chairman and CEO owns 18.9% of the company so perhaps he is more focused on shareholder value than the average company CEO.I doubt he will be interested in dilution or acquisitions which take the company away from its core activity.

[aphrodites] 17/11/2006 11:35

WJC

I am a director and part owner of a fast expanding electrical business.

We are always conscious of the need for cash to develop our business.

I cannot believe IGP does not have any expansion plans.

Either it expands or it is taken over.

And its current liquidity resources will not enable it to enter into any sizeable new developments.

I am sorry to raise the possibility of a cash raising exercise but if I was their C.E. and I had ambitious growth plans I would certainly be discussing with my broker the different developments options at my disposal.

[rambutan2] 17/11/2006 11:34

note that cybertrust were in london yesterday...


wonder why they don't mention the US govt contract on their website...

[yump] 17/11/2006 11:05

It would certainly be refreshing to be invested in a company that didn't raise a wad of cash during expanding sales, or issue a myriad of options to advisers. On past evidence IGP are not one of those companies - hopefully they've raised enought in the past to fit in with a long term cash-flow /working capital plan.

You can't say that about a lot of companies - AIM is littered with placings and options for placing brokers. You can't tell me that isn't bad planning. I don't buy the 'we have to have the cash to exploit market opportunities rapidly' stuff - imo its just bad planning and/or bad marketing forecasts.

[pork belly] 17/11/2006 11:02

i was surprised to see the name WJCCGHCC already taken when i joined ADVFN. thats the problem with popular BB nicknames i guess.

:0)

[wjccghcc] 17/11/2006 10:57

They won't raise money IMHO. Last year they had a cash inflow of 440k, cash balances of 1.1mm and pushed out their 1.4mm convertible debt to 2009 with conversion prices of 15p and 20p. It's not a business with high capex - their main costs are people and I can't see any acquisitions on the horizon.

[igoe104] 17/11/2006 10:50

sure is.

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FT Home > Services & tools > SearchResourcesSMALLER COMPANIES UK: Intercede lifted by Homeland Security
By Tom Griggs

Financial Times, Oct 10, 2006

Intercede, which supplies smart card and identity management software, saw its shares rise by nearly a fifth after it revealed that smart cards based on its software would be used by the US Environment Protection Agency.

RSA, the security division of EMC, has been selected by the US EPA to provide the smart card management system to enable it to comply with a high profile Homeland Security directive dealing with the vetting and access control for all federal employees and contractors.
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[pork belly] 17/11/2006 10:38

apparently its also in the FT today, as well as the Times.

[rambutan2] 17/11/2006 10:34

like aphrodites, i've no doubt that kbc will be pushing a fund raising idea - fees for them, get in some clients etc. and let's face it, which small company fd wouldn't like a bit more cash/safety net. "raise it when you can" i was told by a small co fd last week.

so, it's a bit of a test of the management's true confidence in the future and determination to really protect shareholder value etc.

yes, i've become a hard bitten cynic!

[igoe104] 17/11/2006 09:53

RESULTS DUE 15th December.

.I liked the Fact Parris was in washington talking to 'other' government agencies re HSPD-12 which would indicate that there is more contracts to come on this one.....

[jailbird] 17/11/2006 09:28

they do not need money..they went cashflow +tive just recently...increase in cash.

[aphrodites] 17/11/2006 09:25

yump

We will all have to be very careful with this one as with the MM's only making the price in 2,500 shares they can easilly pull the carpet if there is a sudden change in sentiment.

No sign of this at the present time so we should all sit back and enjoy the ride.

I was just looking at the chart and with the vertical move up from October it is hard to determine if this is just the first leg of the Elliott Wave or the third. I am inclined to go for the latter and as I posted before, if it is then the 3rd. leg is always the strongest of the 5. This could easily take us to 90p before we even think about a pause for breath.

And still no evidence of any institutional buying yet.

But knowing Peel Hunt, if the company is in need of more cash, they will take this opportunity to make a special placement, and a few priviledged "funds" will be given stock at a knock-down price as well as themselves!!!!

Someone said the results are due at the end of November.

Does anyone know the exact date yet?

[davethechef] 17/11/2006 08:55

This is going bananas!

[yump] 17/11/2006 08:55

Amazing that a few small buys can have this effect ! Soon the last few years will just look like a wobble on the chart, even when the share price was moving around by 50% or so.

[billbyrne] 17/11/2006 08:11

Nice tick up on opening. Good sign for the rest of the day hopefully.

[aphrodites] 17/11/2006 08:02

SMALLER STOCK TO WATCH SECTION OF WHITE TIMES

AIM-listred Intercede Gropu, which develops identity verification software, rallied 9p to 58.25p on securing a further contract from an unnamed US Government department for its MyID technology. The deal relates to the vetting and access control of all the federal employees and contractors. KBC Peel Hunt house broker, said that there "is still a good deal of upside in the stock".

[taurusthebear] 17/11/2006 05:56

Hi Spooky,

"Surely it's time Taurus sold some more :-o)"

I just got back from Flores. Maybe I should go away more often if the share price reacts like this!

Seriously, I only sold a few because I waited 6 months to make a profit on IGP, and I wanted to bag some of it. What I sold was less than 15% of my holding. I don't intend selling any more.

As mentioned, the price may come under pressure immediately following the results, but how can you tell? How can anyone tell that this might not decide to do a 'Gresham Computing' and go mental? At 40-60p it seems fairly valued to me, given the current finances and imminent prospects, but it all comes down to how others perceive it, and since this has only just started to appear on others' radars, it could have a fair bit further to go yet. Every RNS seems to bring new excitement for the SP, and you can't argue with that...

I am now taking the Buffett line: You either hold a portfolio of shares, or you hold a portfolio of businesses. To me, IGP is a growing business, so I don't care if the Stock Market closes for the next year... ;0)

[rambutan2] 17/11/2006 02:44

here's our rather posh-looking pr folk - archie and kate c...

[pyman] 16/11/2006 23:43

hooray!!!! bring it on

[spooky] 16/11/2006 20:42

garth - I am as wary of ramping as you are but there is every chance that if national ID cards are included we may see 1 billion smart cards issued between 2008 and 2013.If Intercede were to get 5% of the market,that is 50 million cards,a market cap. of £200 million would probably be too low.Now do i think we will see 1 billion cards issued,yes i do.I also happen to believe that Intercede's market position would support at least a market share of 5%.WJCC's post earlier looks at a possible 25% share of the HSPD-12 market,so 5% is definitely achievable.