Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 27/10/2006 05:05

Aphrodites,

"I have no idea what the full potential of the company is at this time or the profits it might make."

Precisely! You could make the same claim about many companies on the LSE. If you have no idea, that makes it a punt.

In my opinion, it's best to buy a lot of shares when a company is still well below the parpapet. I didn't get IGP at 15p, but I did buy all mine in the 30-40p range. I would be happy to hold all these if they increase at a respectable speed, but anything that spikes up by double or triple in a matter of weeks invites taking some off the table.

That's not trading, in my book, but taking advantage of an aberrational market, because any obvious short-term value will then have been outed if share price increases are based more on expectation than contracts won.

Wise money management doesn't equate to having a third of one's portfolio in a currently loss-making stock, imo, that's gambling... :0)

[rambutan2] 27/10/2006 00:18

sorry, had missed your earlier post wjcc.

9000 resellers sounds a good start!

[wjccghcc] 27/10/2006 00:05

Well 9,000 Oracle resellers for a start :-)

[rambutan2] 26/10/2006 23:35

i thought the oracle news very interesting and wonder what the full implications might be. how many potential new doorways does it open?

[rambutan2] 26/10/2006 23:29

timely, gresham failed to deliver on the promise and the share price came right back, although on a pe basis it's still v expensive.

i bought into unknown copper play first quantum (fqm) at around the £1 mark in 2002. i was v confident that copper was going to rerate and that fqm had great management and great african assets. after about a year it started to take off and eventually i sold out at £7-£8. a happy price/result for me. however, fqm continued to climb and it's now the largest company on aim with a share price which has gone over £30 in 2006. oops!

in any case, unless it becomes clear that things aren't developing as we hope with igp, i will be hanging onto my stake for a long time. igp is beautifully positioned in a global mkt which is just starting to take off and i'm going to let the story run its full course this time. remember, the final bag is the most profitable...

[topvest] 26/10/2006 21:51

Healthy pull back today. Could be very interesting here in the run up to xmas.

[timely] 26/10/2006 17:32

A few years ago I was in Gresham Computing and sold for about a 10% profit only to see them go up 15 fold. They were similar to IGP insofar as they had software which was in demand and where the development phase had finished and sales came through quickly with next to no addition to the cost base.

I'm not saying that will happen to IGP but I'm going to hold for another 6 months to see if the flow of sales come through in the next few weeks as the Chairman predicted in his last statement. Also awareness is starting to be raised with the broker comment and the article in last weeks press.

Time will tell as ever but I'm going to hold this time.

[pork belly] 26/10/2006 16:35

10/26/06 -- 09:20 AM

Companies begin issuing HSPD-12 cards to contractors
By Rob Thormeyer, GCN Staff


Government employees aren't the only ones set to start receiving new identification cards this week.

A consortium of public and private organizations focusing on secure cross-credentialing said Wednesday that three of its member companies have started issuing new smart ID cards that comply with Homeland Security Presidential Directive-12.

EDS Corp., Northrop Grumman and SRA International Inc. of Fairfax, Va., members of the Federation for Identity and Cross-Credentialing Systems (FiXs), said they have started issuing smart cards to their employees and third parties.

Under HSPD-12, agencies must have the ability to begin issuing new ID cards to new employees and contractors by Oct. 27.

FiXs members in 2005 developed a smart-card network that provides secure, interoperable identity verification and credential authentication for contractors who need access to secure government facilities and networks.

The network is currently operational with the Defense Department's Cross-Credentialing Identification System, which is used to authenticate DOD's Common Access Card holders as well as defense contractors, FiXs said.

[aphrodites] 26/10/2006 16:12

I quite agree it is always advisable taking some profits the same as it is cutting losses. Although as you know, they say run your profits and cut your losses.

But one has to be sensible about analysing whether this company is due for a fundamental re-rating, new income potential and if new markets are about to open up for them. If the answer is yes, as I think it is for this one, then the most sensible approach is to sit on your hands, close your eyes and come back in 12 months time and re-evaluate the situation then.

Too many people are short-term traders and loose out on the big moves.

I have no idea what the full potential of the company is at this time or the profits it might make.

It could be enormous and the shares will move to a level which none of us can anticipate at this time.

One thing is certain the share price is not being puffed up on a lot of hot air. Peel Hunt has recommended it as a buy and the news flow shows that more deals are in the pipe-line.

At times like this I always find that leveraged buying as the share price moves up with tight stop-losses is a much better policy than trying to guess where the right price is.

Wise money management is one thing.

A wise investment policy is another.

But no one ends up poor by taking profits.

[taurusthebear] 26/10/2006 14:24

It's all about greed, fear and rationale, if you ask me. I only hold 4 stocks, and when one of them that is yet to produce a profit more than doubles (if 70-80p came about) in less than a month, it's percentage of my portfolio would become untenable, given it's financial standing as of now. It's all about being rational and not getting greedy. The latter is easy, you can do that any day of the week on any horse, the hard part is wise money management, IMO. :0)

[yump] 26/10/2006 12:49

For me this is one of the few stocks that I would not sell out of completely until its full potential is realised, purely because if it goes well the profitability could shoot through the roof and as you say the buying back could be tricky. More likely I will chop 30-50% off if the share price starts reflecting best case profits that are a year or more ahead and leave the rest in to do whatever it will.

I guess that tactic could end up with a 'look what you could have won' result - but if it proves to be that good, I'll be pretty chuffed with what I have won !

[wjccghcc] 26/10/2006 12:11

Tricky one. 50p puts them on a PE of 20 with profits of 700k but doesn't price in any future potential.

I reckon costs will increase to around 2.6mm depending on how many extra staff they've had to take on to work with the burgeoning partner list. That means revenues would need to increase to 3.4mm from 2.1mm last year. They had an extra 550k in deferred revenue at the beginning of the year which will come through as revenue this year so that leaves 750k revenue they'd need above what they did last year. Given the size and lumpiness of their contracts plus the fact they don't usually book revenues until 6-12 months later I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't happen, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if they exceeded it.

Next year is when the recent partnerships with Verisign, Safenet, Oracle etc. should kick in which will lead to a much bigger contract base and more predictabiliy of revenue timing.

If they were 70p tomorrow, would I sell some? Possibly if I thought they'd gone up too fast too soon, but only with the intention of buying them back soon after and that could be hard. I've built up my holding over the last 18 months and believe me, if the MMs don't have a willing seller you can't buy more than 2500 without moving the price.

[taurusthebear] 26/10/2006 11:58

Not interested in blue sky futures, when the market starts to price those in long before they may happen, I start to get out... :0)

[pork belly] 26/10/2006 11:56

at a mkt cap of just 17m and with such blue chip partners and immense growth potential, this is one helluva stock for the future...best i've seen in a long time !

[igoe104] 26/10/2006 11:54

think more rns,s over the coming weeks, should give it strong support around 60p mark. think you must be crazy to sell any, over the next year, 2007 should see a strong mark up, in the s/p.

[yump] 26/10/2006 11:46

ttb
Yes I think 70-80 short term would be pushing it a bit.

[yump] 26/10/2006 11:45

Or, if it overblows but is still sound, do you sell and have a strict rebuying target based on a cheaper rating - as inevitably an overblown stock will come back down. Having had its spike I guess the most difficult thing is then deciding what is a cheaper rating as it is likely to settle at a higher rating than before the spike, if its still a good prospect.

[taurusthebear] 26/10/2006 11:45

Well, call me greedy, but 54p wasn't quite enough for me, but if it continues up closer to 70-80p in the near-term, I'd probably take half my stake off the table. Think it's just as likely to settle at mid-40s though... :0)

[pork belly] 26/10/2006 11:43

just noticed that IGP already announced the Oracle partner news on their website:

[igoe104] 26/10/2006 11:43

more press,on tomorrow smart card date.

[yump] 26/10/2006 11:41

I just hope the share price doesn't go bonkers - if you're faced with a profit on your shares which you would have been happy with in a year or so and it happens in a very short space of time, before the actual profits are delivered in the company, then long term buy and hold becomes very difficult imo.

I've had trouble sitting on my hands as my stake has now doubled and if I've got my calcs right the share price is priced as if the co. is making around 700,000 pbt.

Still wonder if the nature of investment has changed quite dramatically from the old 'buy a share and leave it for 20 years' philosophy. News, talk, tipsheets and bb's sometimes all coincide to cause dramatic increases in a share price. In those circumstances, you've effectively achieved your long term buy and hold in a year. So what should you do ?

Set a reasonable profit/earnings target for the company for say 5 years time, work out a reasonable share price and then if you get within spitting distance of it unexpectedly just sell ?

[aphrodites] 26/10/2006 11:24

WJCCHCC

I agree and did warn yesterday the MM's could easily pull the carpet from under the price at any time.

Interesting that they haven't tried to shake the tree yet.

I think KBC is the one who is running this one, certainly he had a seller yesterday and it is interesting to see him supplying more stock again today. But he is being very careful with the on-line trade system with brokers. I think the price will only work in any size at around the 55p level which is where he has a seller.

I decided with almost the 10% fall from yesterday's hign to put my toe in the water and buy a few more in my sip this morning. Sold LloydsTSB and have been swithing into these through my account with Barclays. Started at 50.25p and had to make 4 trades to fill part of my small order. I still have more to buy but have stood back as they have moved price up to 50.7p now.

Quite clearly they do not want to run a short position in these.

[holgerl] 26/10/2006 11:23

look at WDNY MOVE!!!

[igoe104] 26/10/2006 11:22

small bit of press in ireland.

[wjccghcc] 26/10/2006 10:11

It's a hard one to trade - you really have to sell when it's rising and buy when it's dropping to get any volume.

I don't think the Oracle news is a contract as such - it's more that Oracle Fusion Middleware and Oracle IDMS will interface with Intercede's MyID as their CMS and not one of their competitors. It means MyID will be the CMS being sold by the 9,000 Oracle reseller network to new and existing Oracle clients. Great news IMHO but again you really need to stick around until 2007/8 to see the financial benefits start to come through.