Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 16/5/2019 11:12

lol bats down again haha it was only 3 or 3 month ago they were together at £24 🌽

[pugugly] 16/5/2019 10:54

Now bouncing on £21.00 - Could this be the bottom or are the skids under all cancer sticks> BATS down again at the moment.

[p0pper] 16/5/2019 08:11

Must be a seller in the market I think, any end in sight to this drubbing, seems really well overdone for such a small % drop in sales even though everything else up.

[creditcrunchies] 15/5/2019 19:43

looking at the projected 2019 to 2020 dividend cover it's 1.33 for 2019 and 1.27 for 2020. They wouldn't raise the divi if they didn't have cover. Altman-Z score of 1.54 which is slightly lower than it really needs to be for safety but implies debt is high but manageable (it's in the caution range). There is risk here no doubt. The broker figures on revenue for 2019/2020 don't look right on Stockopedia not sure if it is an error or data is missing. Broker consensus - sell=4,hold=5,buy=4,strong buy=6 which isn't bad really as it's moved from hold towards buy (latest consensus)

Edit: I see it says Imperial Brands Data Issue: The forecast revenues for IMT are currently not on the same accounting basis as historic revenues.

[linton5] 15/5/2019 17:49

Time to get on here I’d say fell to far behind BAT and P MORRIS both climbing again in USA but IMB not,time for IMB chaps to make a statement to eat the shorters who are making easy money here

[pineapple1] 15/5/2019 16:21

Apparently vaping is not permitted in Thailand. You can end up with a hefty fine and even jail.. I wonder where else this sort of thing will crop up ..
I,m sceptical that vaping is as safe as many think but its certainly going to put a dent in IMB's and others figures.
imho

[lonrho] 15/5/2019 14:44

ADVFN adjustment is almost entirely related to amortisation of acquired intangibles which everyone adds back. According to Sharecast EPS this year is forecast at 283p and next year at 296p which is a current p/e of 7.5 reducing to 7.2 next year. Yes debt is too high but BATS is even higher pro rata and is rated considerably more highly despite being under fire by the FDA over its USA menthol sales and potentially having to put its Canadian subsidiary into administration.

[essentialinvestor] 15/5/2019 13:23

There's 12 billion of debt, so PE is too rudimentary a measure imv.

[pugugly] 15/5/2019 13:22

remember p/e of under 7 is adjusted - basic p/e is 14.8 (according to advfn figures)

[essentialinvestor] 15/5/2019 13:22

Phil posted on the BATS board last year, a broker view that estimated by 2025/6
35-45% of volume on conventional would be lost. I don't think that
will be too far out.

And the issue on vape is you can buy a 100 different cheap unbranded
vape devices and liquids on Amazon and elsewhere. Big tobacco no longer
dominates distribution.

[spud] 15/5/2019 12:45

10% yield f/cast to grow @ 10% pa!?!? Bring on a sub 2000p price please. Pinch me, has Christmas come early perchance?spud

[lonrho] 15/5/2019 12:25

Below 20 and a sustainable yield, at least for now, of over ten percent and a p/e of under seven. If it happens will look incredibly cheap.

[action] 15/5/2019 11:12

Bearish Trend support below £20.00

[p0pper] 15/5/2019 09:16

Well done spud, nice divi income as well

[spud] 15/5/2019 09:08

Just taken a £20k top up as they look to have stabilised. spud

[jimbob49] 14/5/2019 17:09

FY decline in 2018 report was -3.6%. I know 'shipment timings' can be taken with a pinch of salt but this year is forecast at -4.5%. Most smokers I now talk to about vaping have tried vape and disliked it or so set in their ways they can't think of anything but conventional tobacco. IMO there is a floor on volume. There is a spectrum of tobacco consumers. Early vape adopters | Half and Half / low level smokers | and lastly your addicted core smokers. That last group is the floor on volume that no matter regulation or pricing will pay for their smokes

[spud] 14/5/2019 17:01

It's all about managing the decline in traditional nicotine delivery systems whilst accelerating the next generation applications. spud

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2019 16:57

Jim, interesting post. Although I would guess a 4% annual decline might be on
the optimistic side.

[jimbob49] 14/5/2019 16:42

Imb currently sells 250bn SE p.a at roughly 12p per SE gross revenue. Factoring a 4% decline p.a it will be selling 170bn SE in 2030. To achieve 4% revenue growth p.a it would have to hike prices 8.3% a year ending on a per SE price of 26p in 2030.this sounds like a tall order but considering the price rises over the last 10 years imb still sells 250bn sticks a year! These calculations are just looking at price rises not factoring in the thousands of staff Imb has working on next gen and other ADDATIVE opportunities! What's more is with less sticks sold and higher prices,free cash flow will go through the roof. Eventually Imb will have de listed all the local brands and migrated smokers to JPS / Gauloises leaving a much lighter smaller headcount company hopefully Ripe for a bid. I also think many have forgotten the value in tobacco M and A. There are still many smaller firms that need to be consolidated in the industry, a great way to bolster those falling volumes and get through some more price rises. Sentiment is really down here, holders should think about Warren buffets cigar butt theory, even though one would argue this is better quality!

[spud] 14/5/2019 16:18

Looks to be stabilising at this level. Will probably pick a few more up to do the divi justice. spud

[pugugly] 14/5/2019 15:53

Just been looking at dividends again - About 8.7% yield at 2150 - Some of the adjusted brokers eps are (imo) probably not sustainable as contain profits in divestments - Need to dig deeper but possilby not such atonking buy as implied in some post (e&oe)

LON:IMB Dividend History Ex-Divi Date Pay Date Type Dividend Curr. Total
2019-08-22 2019-09-30 H1 dividend (interim) 31.28 GBX
2019-05-23 2019-06-28 Q1 dividend 31.28 GBX
2019-02-21 2019-03-29 H2 dividend (final) 65.46 GBX 187.79
2018-11-22 2018-12-31 Q3 dividend 65.46 GBX
2018-08-23 2018-09-28 H1 dividend (interim) 28.435 GBX
2018-05-24 2018-06-29 Q1 dividend 28.435 GBX
2018-02-22 2018-03-29 H2 dividend (final) 59.51 GBX 170.72
2017-11-16 2017-12-29 Q3 dividend 59.51 GBX
2017-08-17 2017-09-29 H1 dividend (interim) 25.85 GBX
2017-05-18 2017-06-30 Q1 dividend 25.85 GBX
2017-02-16 2017-03-31 H2 dividend (final) 54.1 GBX 155.2
2016-11-17 2016-12-30 Q3 dividend 54.1 GBX
2016-08-18 2016-09-30 H1 dividend (interim) 23.5 GBX
2016-05-19 2016-06-30 Q1 dividend 23.5 GBX
2016-02-04 2016-03-31 H2 dividend (final) 49.1 GBX 141
2015-11-19 2015-12-31 Q3 dividend 49.1 GBX
2015-08-27 2015-09-30 H1 dividend (interim) 21.4 GBX
2015-05-28 2015-06-30 Q1 dividend 21.4 GBX
2015-01-15 2015-02-17 H2 dividend (final) 89.3 GBX 128.1
2014-07-16 2014-08-19 H1 dividend (interim) 38.8 GBX
2014-01-15 2014-02-17 H2 dividend (final) 81.2 GBX 116.4

[jimbob49] 14/5/2019 10:22

Chris Bailey wrote an article related to Imb on share prophets last week, does anyone have subscription? Would love to read

[spud] 14/5/2019 10:18

I guess with the ever increasing divi and current out of favour price, this could represent a value for money buying opportunity. I shall revisit upon my return to Blighty. spud

[spud] 14/5/2019 09:37

Me too.Must be nearing fulcrum point.spud