Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[kiwi2007] 01/2/2023 09:07

All about BAT but worth a read - even better if you read the full FT article.

Snippets from todays LEX column

https://www.ft.com/content/055e5d67-9704-4053-ade1-0783f1250bfb

......cigarette sales are declining in the US. This is BAT’s largest market, contributing about half of sales and operating profits. Moreover, BAT is ceding market share to rivals there. Analysts forecast BAT’s US cigarette revenue will grow at an average compound rate of just 2.3 per cent through 2030, probably less than inflation........

Cigarettes should nevertheless continue financing a steep 7 per cent dividend yield, at least for the next few years. Lex values future payments on the conservative assumptions including long-term growth rates of just 1 per cent and long bond yields of about 3.3 per cent. We think BAT is worth about £33 per share today. That is 6 per cent higher than the market price. (when written).......

3.Lex charts showing:

1 The cigarette maker has lost market share in the US for its most important product.

2The US and cigarettes still generate the bulk of cash flows which more than cover the dividend.

.3 Over the last two years, BAT’s share price has trailed those of its rivals.

This assumes non-combustibles will not make a serious contribution to cash flow until the latter part of this decade.

In time, BAT may be able to split off its cigarettes business. The longer it takes, the nearer complete runoff will be and the lower the value of the business. Comin needs to ready combustibles for an independent future.

[t 34] 26/1/2023 16:34

At what level is the full recovery ??

[lendmeafiver] 26/1/2023 15:27

Back to 18?

[saltaire111] 26/1/2023 15:27

The share still has a long way to go to full recovery.

[saltaire111] 26/1/2023 15:26

Political / health / new product concerns seem to be knocking confidence.

[saltaire111] 26/1/2023 15:26

Disappointing downward trend developing here.

[fenners66] 24/1/2023 10:16

CASSINI -
1, this is not the place to tackle any of those ideas - its a financial board.
So the comment could just have been , "take the political ideas elsewhere , troll"

2, Do you exclude the possibility of foreign powers paying trolls? But dont answer that discussion is for elsewhere...

[uncle_sam] 24/1/2023 09:32

Cassini's 'random discreditation' is, frankly, discredited.Last year's UN vote about that was:Condemn: 141Approve: 4Abstain: 35

[kiwi2007] 23/1/2023 09:34

Perhaps it's because I rarely see anyone vaping but I've been pretty skeptical regarding e-ciggs replacing lost smokers. Anyway I did a bit of digging and came up with this fabulous research from Bath Uni :htTps://tobaccotactics.org/wiki/e-cigarettes/
Really is worth a flick through.

Prefer IMPS to Bats BTW.

[cassini] 23/1/2023 09:31

I missed whatever comment was made to trigger ArentFanwy's post, no doubt because it's someone I filtered a long time ago. I've filtered so many...

7975 is a very good synopsis of how we got to this situation IMO.

I will make only one more comment on the matter as everyone's already laid out their stall, and that is that the 'Paid Russian troll' comment 7976 is the epitome of an emotional reaction seen on 21st century social media wherever something contentious is mentioned and someone is reaching for a random discreditation.

It's the equivalent of saying 'Burn him, he's a witch!' and has all the same amount of critical thinking behind it.

Yes, I saw Fanwy's ultra-recent join date on his profile, but a lot of what he says is a verifiable matter of record, so tackle the ideas, not the man.

'Paid Yankee/Globalist troll!'. See, that's how easy it is to do, but critical thinking it is not. I am now going to finish on some actual ellipsis...

PS: I lost a ton of money on POLY and RAVP over this war, if any Russkies are watching and want to pay me money to shill for them, I'm all ears ;0)

[uncle_sam] 22/1/2023 23:41

Arent Fanwy has 1 post only, just joined advfn, posts a repeat of Putin's talking points, not quite fake news but highly slanted "alternative facts". Blah blah blah. Yep Russian stooge.

[huckers] 20/1/2023 20:23

Paid Russian troll.

[arentfanwy] 19/1/2023 17:58

CASSINI3 is absolutely correct: the Ukraine war is the continuation of a proxy war that 's been going on since at least 2008 with George W Bush's promise to Ukraine that they could join NATO, and the DC meddling in Georgia and South Ossetia that same year. But one can trace it back much further; it's explicitly dealt with in Robert Taft's speech on NATO in 1949. Syria was a flare up of the proxy and as soon as that started to turn sour for the State Department we got Nuland and her taped antics in Kiev; Maidan; Graham, Klobuchar, and McCain visiting; VP Biden's - very conditional - $1 billion aid package; arms under Trump; and training under POTUS Biden. Europe helped by lying to Putin about the Minsk Accords to - it is now claimed - buy time (Merkel, Die Zeit, December '22; Hollande, Kiev Independent, December '22). As for Ukraine being a sovereign state, there are two problems there: firstly, the last 25 years of Western liberal interventionism make such protestations look a bit strained; secondly, after the "Revolution of Dignity" of February 2014, Kiev's shelling of Donetsk started with gusto (Guardian and CNN very good on this throughout the next 6 years), and the newly installed President of Ukraine began to threaten military action and legal discrimination of his Eastern districts ("we will attack and we will free our country" Associated Press, 30.6.2014)- these are hardly the actions of a sovereign state but, rather, the response to a cultural (and linguistic, of course) schism that's existed there for 400 or more years, the problem of Galacian dominance in short. The US manoeuvres to get to where we are now are all very well covered in the Wikileaks diplomatic cables, especially from William Burns - who also wrote a book about the dangers of Russian overthrow attempts through Ukraine. He's Director of the CIA now of course, and often in Kiev, though he was Ambassador in Moscow in 2008 when he sent the warnings. The extensive 2019 paper on Russian overthrow by everybody's favourite think tank, the RAND Corporation, also support Cassini3. In a nutshell, all of the Putin / 1938 guff is spiked by the (happy bicentennial!) Monroe Doctrine which was instituted for the exact same reason Putin has acted as he has. (We wouldn't want the Russians in Calais now would we? Or, in years past, the Imperial Spanish in Waterford). And it's not just Ukraine: of late we have seen serious government unrest in Kazakstan and even Mongolia but I expect this is just a spontaneous outpouring of democratic feeling. If we make it through the year, I shall continue to be long Imperial Brands. "... curiously willing ellipsis of thought ..." : takes me back to my NME days!

[philanderer] 18/1/2023 15:39

Overseas earners down on stronger £

[kiwi2007] 18/1/2023 15:37

Chartists may also see a bearish reversal head and shoulders pattern in IMB.

[kiwi2007] 18/1/2023 15:26

Altria - USA domestic cigarette shipment volumes were down 9.2% year over year whilst costs were up.
Also smoke-free category, e-vapor volumes dropped 4% in the third quarter .

hTtps://finance.yahoo.com/news/altria-mo-troubled-high-costs-134101108.html

[brucie5] 18/1/2023 15:19

CASSINI3 Jan '23 - 00:51 - 7960 of 7970
0 3 0
Really though, Russia are fighting the USA/NATO now, albeit via a proxy war, although it was always that really, from 2014 and Crimea/Maidan.
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That's certainly what Putin would have you believe and you've swallowed his line.
Yet inside that curiously willing ellipsis of thought is the fact that Ukraine, a sovereign state, has been invaded by Russia. And that on the ground Russia is actually fighting Ukrainians, not NATO soldiers, albeit with an increasing amount of NATO weaponry.
Please also recall the demands made on Eastern European states before February 2022, effectively asking them to disarm.
And then recall that both Finland and Sweden are sufficiently concerned as to apply for NATO membership.
On a final point - did you believe Putin when he told the world he had no intention of invading Ukraine? And you believe him now?
Good luck with that.

[lomcovaks] 12/1/2023 05:47

saltaire11,nice strategy. I own BABA through the fidelity china consumer fund. I think it's #2 in their top ten holdings and your also get access to tencent and meitou distilleries etc. I'll have a look at Airtel Africa.

[saltaire111] 11/1/2023 22:40

Another share that’s worth a look is Airtel Africa. I have quite a bit built up in that one. Fabulous growth prospects and the price has come down quite a lot recently.

Salty.

[saltaire111] 11/1/2023 22:37

I have 9551 IMB shares. One of my biggest holdings. Also have quite a few BATS. I recycle the income from these two into other shares that are a bit more racy - I have been buying BABA over the last few months and have built up quite a lot in that and Disney, Airbnb, Rightmove and I’ve also been buying Civitas Social Housing, as I think it has been oversold.

Salty.

[lomcovaks] 11/1/2023 05:53

Interesting that PMI, Phillip Morris International, started using Blue Yonder's TMS transportation management system a little over a year ago. It sure would ease integration if the they merged.

[t 34] 10/1/2023 10:35

hxxps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230109005896/en/Imperial-Brands-Selects-Blue-Yonder-to-Digitally-Transform-Its-Supply-Chain

[f56] 08/1/2023 14:05

Lol Cassini. Good analysis of war!