Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[linton5] 14/5/2019 09:36

So many bargain stocks out there it’s like take your pick,if I was a foreigner I’d be putting a big wad on selected British shares

[philanderer] 14/5/2019 09:35

Only red one in my lot this morning .

[fizzypop] 14/5/2019 09:13

Increased my holding by 100% with purchase at 2149p. GLA

[eeza] 14/5/2019 08:25

Different sectors - obviously.

[linton5] 14/5/2019 08:24

Why is this stock so poor compared to bats ?

[essentialinvestor] 13/5/2019 13:51

If things start to get really messy with China you might get
some relative outperformance here, at least short term.

Rather than that IMB executive having a pop a Juul,
improve my blu so it becomes a must have product as Juul has.

When companies complain about the competition,
it sometimes indicates they have no answer to it.

[woodhawk] 13/5/2019 13:07

Excellent point, Fizzy! I tend to imagine the moves are 'bigger' than they really are with shares like this... until I check the actual percentages.

[fizzypop] 13/5/2019 11:28

Seems to be trading in a narrow range, any breakout and I will be buying.
Is it just me or do others have difficulty gauging small percentage changes on high priced shares without using a calculator?

[meijiman] 13/5/2019 10:48

I thought the whole idea was to attract younger customers and make them become addicted to your product..reminds me of cigarettes.

[philanderer] 12/5/2019 23:42

"Imperial claims vape rival tempts youngsters"

Tobacco giant Imperial Brands has hit out at rival e-cigarette maker Juul, comparing its high-nicotine products to “legal highs” and accusing it of attracting younger customers to vaping.

Matthew Phillips, Imperial’s chief development officer, said Juul’s success in the US, where its market share is more than 70pc, had led to increased scrutiny of vaping by regulators at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

[creditcrunchies] 12/5/2019 22:26

this is looking like BATS earlier in the year it crashed to 2350 then bounced to 3200 I ended up with £30Ks worth of stock then cashed out at around 3170. Looks like something similar here it's just brokers driving the bid down to hoover it all up probably at the 2000 to 2100 level. Get a bounce to 2600 at least I reckon.

[minerve 2] 12/5/2019 12:35

Brand migration and product mix is also important. Developing countries and newbies to the middle classes etc.. will buy premium branded products with greater margin.

[gabsterx] 12/5/2019 12:26

EI I agree that the volumes will keep declining as time goes on, however pricing power is so inelastic that people will continue to pay

Price of a pack of cigarettes in the 1950s: 0.25 USD
Price of a pack of cigarettes today: 7.00 USD

So while volumes have indeed declined prices have gone up by a whopping 2700% since 1950, and by 124% since 2000 (when price was 3.12 USD). Granted there have been other components built in over time (excise tax, VAT, etc..) but given that the US is not even in the top 15 most expensive countries for price per pack, I'm guessing that price increases still have a long way to go.

In the meantime the cash flow from tobacco will help fuel growth areas such as NGP and cannabis. I see some short/medium term pain for the industry overall but remain bullish in the long term.

hxxps://247wallst.com/special-report/2017/06/14/price-of-a-pack-of-cigarettes-the-year-you-were-born/2/

[essentialinvestor] 12/5/2019 10:57

Where will tobacco volume be in 4-5 years time, 20-25% less?.
Prices rises will only work for so long on reducing volumes.
So NGP, which is currently loss making, needs to undergo some transformation
in profitability. Given the JuuL scrutiny and withdrawal of certain flavours,
you might ask why blu revenue is slowing in the US ?. This should have been
an opportunity for blu.

[p0pper] 12/5/2019 08:50

this time, market can't be pricing in a divi cut, not for at least a couple of years yet anyway, fcf too good, profits too good at the moment

[this_time_its_different] 12/5/2019 07:53

Market is pricing is a divi cut, if that doesn’t happen, then this could be at £37 easily this time next year

[gabsterx] 11/5/2019 14:26

Quick DCF analysis with some ridiculously conservative assumptions:

- 0% FCF growth over the next 5 years
- -1% (yes, negative 1%) perpetual decline afterwards
- 8% required rate of return

Based on the assumption that IMB would not only stop growing but would perpetually decline, the stock fair value comes to 2305 p which is still more than today's value.

More realistic assumptions:

- 3% FCF growth over the next 5 years
- +1% perpetual growth afterwards
- 8% required rate of return

Gives a fair value of 3385p.

TLDR: This stock is ridiculously cheap! Adding more on Monday.

[spud] 11/5/2019 11:25

Sold 25% of holding about week before results. I'm tempted to buy them back again as the price crash doesn't relate to the results. spud

[meijiman] 11/5/2019 10:50

Analysts trying to be too clever by half. Look at cashflows /look at yield.

[krowelet] 11/5/2019 10:46

Woodford Equity Income Focus holding in IMB is 8.9% of the fund, the largest holding.

The income fund also has a holding which is 3.28% of the portfollio, [according to Hargreaves Lansdown]. He is still confident of a recovery in the UK income sector.

Hargreaves are also positve on the stock since the results.

[minerve 2] 11/5/2019 10:08

Come back Erogenous Jones. The thread would like to see you post here and I promise I will behave. You need to develop thicker skin old boy or use the filter button like most of the ignorant morons do.

[minerve 2] 11/5/2019 10:00

PUG

A few years' ago those figures would be completely different. I haven't looked but I would hazard a guess that the zenith was probably when BATS placed a bid for Reynolds American. I held Reynolds back then.

Personally, I think it is way too early to gauge new product sales in the US. Juul got a lead but has had to cut back under duress from the FDA. Until there is more stability regarding the direction of the FDA and the legal issues for BATS and Japan Tobacco are fully resolved in Canada there will be a negative sentiment overhang.

Blu gets good reviews against Juul. Some believe it gives a better nicotine hit.

As far as rest of the world growth, I've always seen tobacco as a managed decline stock. Cashflows allow for this to happen without too much affect on shareholder return. Consolidation and brand migration are the order of the day outside of new products and there is still a long way to go. I know China is a different market but to give you an idea of market there are over 900 brands in China alone. As far as demographics go, there are more 'youth' in India than there are people in the whole of Europe. This gives you and idea of scale which sometimes we forget or find it difficult to comprehend when we live on an insignificant island.